Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[Snowflowxxl]

Our first “big” model run of the year lol! Fingers crossed!

 

[accu35]

Here comes the 12z Euro... Hopefully it looks similar to the CMC/UKMET

Do you have a UKMET map Webb? Thanks

 

[Webberweather53]

Meteocentre has some maps going out to 144 hr but they don't offer precipitation and temps til it gets inside 72 hr
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?mod=ukmet

 

[Webberweather53]

No real noticeable changes just yet on the Euro out thru 24-36 hours w/ the southwestern US disturbance

 

[RollTide18]

Which area?

Montgomery

 

[packfan98]

No real noticeable changes just yet on the Euro out thru 24-36 hours w/ the southwestern US disturbance

Thanks for the pbp, Webber! Hopefully the Euro holds. My gut feeling is it will when considering the rest of the 12z suite.

 

[Webberweather53]

Our parent disturbance looks a little bit more amped up already over Arizona by 42 hours

 

[Snowfan]

Our parent disturbance looks a little bit more amped up already over Arizona by 42 hours
View attachment 1789

Is that good or bad?

 

[Webberweather53]

Is that good or bad?

If these changes translate forward in the run it means our system will be stronger and further NW but we'll see here in a bit

 

[Webberweather53]

The entire trough base to the north of our disturbance is hanging back more over the plains and the Rockies, definitely looks closer to what the CMC was advertising

 

[packfan98]

The entire trough base to the north of our disturbance is hanging back more over the plains and the Rockies, definitely looks closer to what the CMC was advertising

Does the Euro still have a bias of holding energy in the SW too long?

 

[deltadog03]

It can but doesn't look like it with this one

 

[Webberweather53]

Does the Euro still have a bias of holding energy in the SW too long?

It's very possible that could be the case however given that the changes have been actually in association w/ the longwave centered further NE over the Lakes and the Plains and that the slowing of the southern piece has been evident in all suites, plus we're inside 72 hours I think it's a legit solution

 

[Webberweather53]

Much healthier looking shortwave over New Mexico thru 78 hours on the Euro

 

[$alt]

It's very possible that could be the case however given that the changes have been actually in association w/ the longwave centered further NE over the Lakes and the Plains and that the slowing of the southern piece has been evident in all suites, plus we're inside 72 hours I think it's a legit solution

Isn't the "sw bias" due to higher resolution problems? If so, the Canadian has been tweaked around 4dVAR or something along those lines and very well could be suffering from the same thing, if the idea is even true at all.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Just went over 100 viewers for this thread. Getting real now.

 

[Snowfan]

I’m liking what I’m hearing.

 

[Webberweather53]

Isn't the "sw bias" due to higher resolution problems? If so, the Canadian has been tweaked around 4dVAR or something along those lines and very well could be suffering from the same thing, if the idea is even true at all.

The slow bias on the ECMWF in the southwestern US especially beyond the medium range (beyond day 4-5) is related to its tendency to over-amplify shortwaves there that ultimately causes them to slow down, which is realized as a trough that hangs back in this region... It also has issues handling high level sources of heat and tends to hold anomalous air masses too long over the Rockies

 

[malak05]

come on... give me a bowling ball

 

[Mitch West]

Would be nice to get an event before Christmas here in the South. 1989 all over again would be nice except a tad bit more NW.