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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Just a daily friendly reminder to use those 10:1 ratio snow maps for entertainment purposes only, seriously as been pointed out many factors will reduce any (If any) accumulation. Tropical tidbits have those adjusted maps now as I posted above...

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El Kabong said:
It's certainly rare for our neck of the woods to have the best chances of accumulating snow, so as Webber said we'll hold onto hope, but lean heavily on the side of non-verification. But, it sure is nice to see some of those darker blue shades across central Georgia! Hopefully, things will become a little more clear today. Always appreciate the analysis and play-by-play!
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El K!! Oh, it's a lock for us. Climo says no, the north, that always gets it, gets none, it's a near impossible task, lol. Just like the best storms, very unlikely :) I sure don't think some pellets are out of the question south of the edge of the earth, the I 20 mystery line. Plus, it's only 4 days out...what could go wrong? Good to see you! T
 
metwannabe said:
Just a daily friendly reminder to use those 10:1 ratio snow maps for entertainment purposes only, seriously as been pointed out many factors will reduce any (If any) accumulation. Tropical tidbits have those adjusted maps now as I posted above...

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Great points
 
metwannabe said:
Just a daily friendly reminder to use those 10:1 ratio snow maps for entertainment purposes only, seriously as been pointed out many factors will reduce any (If any) accumulation. Tropical tidbits have those adjusted maps now as I posted above...

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Even with the adjusted map, I think most here will be happy with a solid 1-2 inches of snow.
 
I am very skeptical of the NAM being the model that ends up with the correct solution at this range. As we have always said, trust the global ensembles until you get into the wheelhouse of the high resolution models.
 
RollTide18 said:
Even with the adjusted map, I think most here will be happy with a solid 1-2 inches of snow.
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Completely agree but just consider it a pre-emptive strike against those post-storm comments that say NAM busted bad it showed me with 8 inches...

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As we get closer, don't discount the thermals on the NAM. If it shows a warm layer even against some of the other guidance, it's probably going to be right.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am very skeptical of the NAM being the model that ends up with the correct solution at this range. As we have always said, trust the global ensembles until you get into the wheelhouse of the high resolution models.
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Yep and hour 84 isn't in the wheelhouse of the NAM, neither is anything beyond 48hrs imho

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Right now the models are having a hard time with how the energy comes out. The slower solution it favored. That is what we should be watching for as we go into today's runs.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am very skeptical of the NAM being the model that ends up with the correct solution at this range. As we have always said, trust the global ensembles until you get into the wheelhouse of the high resolution models.
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The ensembles and NAM aren't too far off if I see it correctly, so there is a little agreement at a minimum. Can't pay too much attention to the NAM as mentioned due to it being at the end of the run.
Rain Cold said:
As we get closer, don't discount the thermals on the NAM. If it shows a warm layer even against some of the other guidance, it's probably going to be right.
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Definitely a true statement. I think that if you sit in N GA from Atlanta Northeastward to the western half of NC temps should be good as we stand right now. Surface temps in the time frame look within a few degrees of freezing across the area, even in the middle of the day. Highest I see is Atlanta at 37 for the high too. Just can't guarantee the temps given it's the NAM.
namconus_T2m_seus_50.png
 
vtrap90 said:
Was that low the NAM shows forming in the gulf on previous model runs? I thought it wasn't supposed to form until the energy traversed over Florida.
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No, the low develops before FL. There are actually two low pressure system's. The low pressures are embedded.
 
accu35 said:
This would be an awesome Sleet storm, with the long duration of the storm LOL!!
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Oh, man, you are so right! What I want to see is a shallow, but persistent, layer of cold air, with constant over running for a solid week, with constant reinforcing shots of cold air. Of course, I've been longing for a mini ice age too, and I'm still waiting, lol. But here is the deal, it can happen, so one day it will happen, like snow that sticks in inches on Xmas day. A five hundred year storm has to happen, it's just how lucky you are as to whether it's during your life time :) I'm feeling kind of lucky, though climo is just laughing at me. I'm going with Larry's analogs this time, his abacus called for snow for Sav, when it was an impossible shot, and got it, so I feel confident in thumbing my nose at climo this time. Of course, that's a lot of pressure on Larry, but I feel decidedly light and unburdened, lol. Plus the moles have been singing over the river and thru the woods, over and over, and I don't think it's to mock me :) T
 
WeatherWatch said:
Time is closing in on this time period, as we get closer and closer, and if the NAM continues to show of what it has been showing, the NAM would end up verifying.
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I agree, the Nam has been showing this and not letting up
 
12z rgem only goes out to 48 hrs, but looks similar to NAM at surface. There are no 500mb plots on tropical tidbits for it. You can see the one slp off SE coast and then the other slp east of Texas.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png
 
12z is a little more amped and north in Texas. Out to hr 54. Lets see what happens.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really not buying the pitiful looking precipitation shield (& its intensity) on the NW side of the low track w/ most of the area in the right entrance region of a powerful jet streak in the mid Atlantic and NE US
View attachment 1817
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You believe the jet streak would open door to more convection and moisture from Gulf to northern portion
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really not buying the pitiful looking precipitation shield (& its intensity) on the NW side of the low track w/ most of the area in the right entrance region of a powerful jet streak in the mid Atlantic and NE US
View attachment 1817
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Should help generate some incredible precip rates, just what we need

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Too warm , even in NC!
 
Bl issues and precip rates not good enough to overcome it, still step in right direction

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malak05 said:
You believe the jet streak would open door to more convection and moisture from Gulf to northern portion
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It opens the door for a lot more lift on the NW side of the low esp vs what the GFS is currently advertising and that matters for BL temps and precipitation type because w/ more lift and heavier precipitation, more areas (esp over the west-central piedmont of NC towards the Triad area for ex) are liable to see heavy/wet snow and cooler BL temps
 
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