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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Great Euro run. The important thing is the models keep showing snow, and they have been trending better today.
 
Brad Panovich has a good video up on Facebook in regards to this week’s storm and going forward.


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Looks like Kang Euro said "nice maps eh?" to the CMC. Wondering if we see a slight shift S/SE over the next day or so before an eventual NW correction.
 
The 12z CMC is similar of what I talked about days ago. I mentioned that the LP will initially get suppressed into the southeastern GOM and come up along the eastern coast. If this is we're to occur, GA, SC, NC and on up towards the NE US will see accumulating snowfall. Of what the 12z CMC is projecting, I'd give it a 15% chance of it occurring as of now. If there will be other models supporting of that the 12z CMC projecting, I'd give it a 50% of it occuring to meet the odds.

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Webb, do you think 3/4 days out this could trend better? Maybe more NW track, low could deepen little more juiced up? Seems were in a great spot for at least something special
 
Also btw, on a slightly unrelated note but since this looked super cool anyway and we're trying to drown the memories of the Jan 2016 heartbreak, I thought I'd like to share with all of you this really sick 500 mb vorticity, height, and wind animation I made in IDV w/ the ECMWF's brand new, very high resolution (< 0.3 of a degree) ERA-5 reanalysis dataset. The entire dataset thru 1950 should be available by 1950. I really love how this reanalysis was even able to pick out and adequately resolve vorticity streamers that emanated downstream of the Rockies and Sierra-Nevada (due to stretching), and diabatically-induced vorticity lobes underneath the convective mass in the warm sector of the cyclone. I hope to make more of these for other storms over the last several decades or so and put them into an archive once the whole dataset becomes available
ERA-5-Jan-20-24-2016-500-hPa-gph-vorticity-and-wind.gif

https://webberweather.wordpress.ncsu.edu/files/2017/12/ERA-5-Jan-20-24-2016-500-hPa-gph-vorticity-and-wind.gif
 
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