Warm nose of death.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HRRR snow depth. Most will be lucky to get any accumulation out of this, a dusting to at most an inch or so in the heaviest hit areas is probably what we're looking at even if 2-4" of liquid equivalent falls from the sky.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Maybe if the precip rate is a little more it could make a big difference in how much we see.
accu35
Member
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Its blury lol. What model is that
Sign me up !!!
DadOfJax
Member
20/59 (AL) corridor looks to be the sweet spot IMO. The NW shift on the NAM (in it's wheelhouse) shows that climatology may rule this after all. North of I20 should have no issues with BL....should be ideal.
Parker
Member
Will the fact that we have several days of cold preceding this event help any ?
BKWRN29
Member
So as of now it will be snowing hard but the ground will be to warm to support alot of accumulation?? What if it ends up being colder then could we see these higher accumulations?
RollTide18
Member
If there's more of a cold push than the models are showing then the sweet spot could shift south as well, its still complicated due to so many factors.
I cant imagine the ground being that warm as cold as it has been the last couple of days !
Parker
Member
You would think that NWS and local mets would hop off of that 1/4-1/2 inch mess. I don't care how warm the "soil temps" are, I have seen rates overcome temps that were 36 degrees! If these maps are right and you even cut them in half twice, you are looking at Winter Storm warning criteria and someone will get 2+ inches somewhere. I honestly feel like someone in Alabama gets 3 inches out of this storm.
Problem is North of i20 will have precip problems. Even the new nam run while a shift NW took place , it's still very limited with moisture North of i20
DadOfJax
Member
Climatology favors, if anything, less of a cold push with this setup in early Dec. There is ZERO snow pack to our NW on top of that. I personally don't think we see much accumulating snow at all, but what is seen will be I20/North. JMO though.
accu35
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Yeah, if it were from a 80 degree to this then it would be hard, not inless you have heavy rates. We have been cold last few days, i would think it should help
So you think there will be no snow south of I-20 in GA ? Im about 10 miles south of I-20 near the AL border.
South AL Wx
Member
It was close to 80 degrees in some areas on Tuesday.
DadOfJax
Member
True, I just think the NW shift continues all the way to the event....it happens almost every storm we have. 24 hours out, you are better off 50 to 100 miles too far north.
BKWRN29
Member
Right, and i dont ever remember a time when i got accumulating snow when the temps where below freezing for a prolonged time. Which from what i gather they are acting like the temps have to be below freezing long enough for the ground to be that cold to support accumulation.