Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[Snow_chaser]

Looking at the maps on the model runs, what am I looking for in regards to the warm nose and where it’s at

 

[packfan98]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago
Overall I like the NAMS idea on the axis of the snow. Amazing event to even see it in the air this early deep south Texas and into heart of Dixie Path on east coast of snow fits DNS of pattern

 

[Metwannabe]

I swear the NAM tries so hard to get that deform band going across NC, if that happens at least could end with a bang

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[Arcc]

So basically it could be colder?

Absolutely. All most of us need a little cooler at the surface which is certainly do able.

 

[packfan98]

Here's the ground truth from the NAM. Looks like a heavy dusting to an inch is the high water mark. The moral of the story is that what we see falling should look beautiful, but it will not pile up on the ground.

 

[kofiagyeiafc]

What are snow chances in Atlanta? Is it faltering as usual or do we have a better chance?

 

[stormcentral]

Here's the ground truth from the NAM. Looks like a heavy dusting to an inch is the high water mark. The moral of the story is that what we see falling should look beautiful, but it will not pile up on the ground.

Ill take my trace in Chattanooga lols

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Here's the ground truth from the NAM. Looks like a heavy dusting to an inch is the high water mark. The moral of the story is that what we see falling should look beautiful, but it will not pile up on the ground.

Wow thats still a solid inch. I would not complain about that at all.

 

[accu35]

Here's the ground truth from the NAM. Looks like a heavy dusting to an inch is the high water mark. The moral of the story is that what we see falling should look beautiful, but it will not pile up on the ground.

I can see 1-3" out of this

 

[Parker]

That 3KM was a beauty this morning.

 

[RollTide18]

Here's the ground truth from the NAM. Looks like a heavy dusting to an inch is the high water mark. The moral of the story is that what we see falling should look beautiful, but it will not pile up on the ground.

1/2 inch for my area would be a nice surprise

 

[Claycochaser]

Here's the ground truth from the NAM. Looks like a heavy dusting to an inch is the high water mark. The moral of the story is that what we see falling should look beautiful, but it will not pile up on the ground.

Not wishcasting at all as I expect a minimal impact event. However, be careful with these snow depth algorithms. As ARCC has mentioned, the model is picking up a warm nose from about 950 to the surface and generally warm ground temps. I've seen time and time again, with heavy rates, ground temps can be overcome and accumulation ensues. The same rates can overcome the borderline boundary temps as well. Certainly still and unfolding situation and no need to definitively say anything at this point.

 

[NoSnowJoe]

It is sleeting in Senoia, just south of Peachtree City, GA.

 

[accu35]

Not wishcasting at all as I expect a minimal impact event. However, be careful with these snow depth algorithms. As ARCC has mentioned, the model is picking up a warm nose from about 950 to the surface and generally warm ground temps. I've seen time and time again, with heavy rates, ground temps can be overcome and accumulation ensues. The same rates can overcome the borderline boundary temps as well. Certainly still and unfolding situation and no need to definitively say anything at this point.

Any colder then totals increase?

 

[Arcc]

Not wishcasting at all as I expect a minimal impact event. However, be careful with these snow depth algorithms. As ARCC has mentioned, the model is picking up a warm nose from about 950 to the surface and generally warm ground temps. I've seen time and time again, with heavy rates, ground temps can be overcome and accumulation ensues. The same rates can overcome the borderline boundary temps as well. Certainly still and unfolding situation and no need to definitively say anything at this point.

Yeah several events come to mind 3/1/09 and 12/25/10.

 

[Claycochaser]

Any colder then totals increase?

Absolutely. Boundary temps are the main limiting factor attm.

 

[Webberweather53]

Looks like it could also snow in Houston w/ this event, pretty crazy really

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Sounds like this thing has the potential to dump a lot of snow if precip rates can be heavy enough.

 

[Metwannabe]

Here's the ground truth from the NAM. Looks like a heavy dusting to an inch is the high water mark. The moral of the story is that what we see falling should look beautiful, but it will not pile up on the ground.

Difficult to see on my phone but best I can tell looking at thermal profile of the NAM it's so close for us, I mean a degree or 2 and it's game on

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[farleydawg792]

Latest NAM has less of the warm nose effect for us in Athens. Hopefully we can limit the WAA in this area.