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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Arcc said:
Just something to remember as well, the models are notorious for being too quick with CAA. Don't be surprised if the snow line isn't 100-150 miles NW of where the models initially have it even a day before the event.
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Certainly can't say that's not probable here (& it is) but the reason we even are talking about snow to begin with is because the storm is so slow that the CAA actually has all the time in the world (a few days) to push into our neck of the woods... I don't think that will be the issue here but eroding what cold air that has already settled in will be
 
Another good run with the Canadian. Things continue to look good. A couple of inches with this would be better than the storms last winter.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Time is closing in on this time period, as we get closer and closer, and if the NAM continues to show of what it has been showing, the NAM would end up verifying.
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10_1.png

b25kog5p3
 
The TV mets will not mention any winter weather until the NWS is on board. Since the NWS here in Atlanta is on board, the TV mets will now be on board.
 
Jeremy Camp said:
What are the chances of seeing at least a Winter Weather Advisory?.
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The NWS would issue a special weather statement first. I would not be surprised if a winter storm watch is issued. Of course a winter storm watch won't be issued until 12 or 48 hrs prior of the event.
 
dsaur said:
El K!! Oh, it's a lock for us. Climo says no, the north, that always gets it, gets none, it's a near impossible task, lol. Just like the best storms, very unlikely :) I sure don't think some pellets are out of the question south of the edge of the earth, the I 20 mystery line. Plus, it's only 4 days out...what could go wrong? Good to see you! T
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Tony, I always enjoy reading your posts. Maybe this will be a preview of a bigger storm to come later this winter...hopefully one where the clouds are overflowing with sleet pellets just for you! You're right, those of us who live south of I-20 might as well be living on a deserted island in the Pacific. We have to remind everyone that there are snow (and sleet) lovers down here at the edge of the earth, too! Every now and then, though, the right ingredients will come together and we get a bone thrown our way from the models. Maybe this is the winter for a February 1973 repeat!
 
packfan98 said:
I-85 Special???
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Yeah a canonical piedmont gradient induced by a Miller A is a plausible solution, but I have a little hope for a bullseye over the US1 or HWY 64 corridor in/around RDU considering that most of these RDU crush jobs come during cold neutral ENSO or La Nina events... Although we haven't seen one of these (to my knowledge) in December in a -ENSO event, I think we can change that esp since there's already been at least one in November... If we were ever going to see RDU get the brunt of a winter storm, this is the right ENSO background to do it

February 11-13 1899
February 11-13 1899 NC Snowmap.png


February 15-17 1902
February 15-17 1902 NC Snow map.png


February 24-25 1910
February 24-25 1910 NC Snowmap.png

February 14 1913
February 14 1913 NC Snowmap.png


January 26-27 1921
January 26-27 1921 NC Snowmap.png


January 13-14 1933
January 13-14 1933 NC Snowmap.png


March 10-11 1934
March 10-11 1934 NC Snowmap.png

February 27-28 1937
February 27-28 1937 NC Snowmap.png


November 26-27 1938
November 26-27 1938 NC Snowmap.png


January 18-19 1955
January 18-19 1955 NC Snowmap.png
 
13 members showing snow here, and looks like more big dogs included. Wonder if this is going to be an all or nothing deal.
 
Guys:
PLEASE keep the "cliff dive", memes, one line comments, etc to the banter thread. I've had to delete several posts just now. Thanks.

Also let's keep the "how much for xx posts" to a minimum. Lots of times if you read the previous posts you can find the information you need.
 
I think you get my point lol there's probably a few other examples I haven't seen yet in the historical record but RDU tends to get bullseyed more often when we're in a NINA/-ENSO state
Webberweather53 said:
January 23-24 1955
View attachment 1837

January 10-11 1962
View attachment 1839

February 26-27 1963
View attachment 1840

February 9-10 1967
View attachment 1841

February 5-6 1984
View attachment 1842

January 24-25 2000
View attachment 1843

January 2-3 2002
View attachment 1844

January 20 2009
View attachment 1845
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Webberweather53 said:
I think you get my point lol there's probably a few other examples I haven't seen yet in the historical record but RDU tends to get bullseyed more often when we're in a NINA/-ENSO state
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A lot of them look similar to e18 and e20.
 
Brick Tamland said:
A lot of them look similar to e18 and e20.
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Yep lol it's highly unlikely we see anything like that (aside from maybe the January 23-24 1955 event) but still interesting to bring this up nonetheless. I know we're usually heartbroken and even during NINA events we are, but the few times RDU and Wake County hits the jackpot is when we're in a cool neutral-NINA state
 
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