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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

As if this all wasn't enough, the Euro actually develops a tertiary wave of low pressure on Saturday along the arctic front, dumps snow east of RDU in NC then goes onto crush New England. Could be more than one threat and/or storm system here, and that's not including the clipper over the TN valley. Fun times ahead.
ecmwf_ptype_nc_23.png
 
After I typed that post talking about the percentages, I looked at the previous posts. I got behind, but now caught up, since the 12z Euro is now in line with the CMC, I'd give the scenario now a 30% chance. But, if the 18z GFS is in line with the CMC and Euro, going up 50% of the scenario happening.

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Webberweather53 said:
As if this all wasn't enough, the Euro actually develops a tertiary wave of low pressure on Saturday along the arctic front, dumps snow east of RDU in NC then goes onto crush New England. Could be more than one threat and/or storm system here, and that's not including the clipper over the TN valley. Fun times ahead.
View attachment 1796
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And this is the result, why do I not like being this close to the bulls-eye now?
abb33e81ac14eb1e74340a178e1eec3b.jpg


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FCC update as of 12:45-

"
There still remains little run to run consistency with the wintry
precip potential at the end of the week. Amplified upper level
longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will usher some of the coldest
air this early winter season over the southeast. A series of upper
level disturbances look to traverse the region in the upper level
flow, but timing, southern extent, and frequency continue to vary
between models and run to run. The 850 mb temperatures Friday and
Saturday could drop as low at -14C (according to the latest GFS),
and with sub freezing temperatures at the surface, the thermal
profile would support all snow. That being said, have continued only
slight chance pops and no accumulations for Thursday night/Friday
morning and again Friday Night/Saturday morning. Highs through the
end of the week will be in the 40s, with 30s in the mountains."

Seems reasonable to me. It's only Monday. Alot could still happen.
 
Sitting right between half inch to 1.5 in Paulding county GA if I got any of that one could never complain in Early December about that
 
Showmeyourtds said:
FCC update as of 12:45-

"
There still remains little run to run consistency with the wintry
precip potential at the end of the week. Amplified upper level
longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will usher some of the coldest
air this early winter season over the southeast. A series of upper
level disturbances look to traverse the region in the upper level
flow, but timing, southern extent, and frequency continue to vary
between models and run to run. The 850 mb temperatures Friday and
Saturday could drop as low at -14C (according to the latest GFS),
and with sub freezing temperatures at the surface, the thermal
profile would support all snow. That being said, have continued only
slight chance pops and no accumulations for Thursday night/Friday
morning and again Friday Night/Saturday morning. Highs through the
end of the week will be in the 40s, with 30s in the mountains."

Seems reasonable to me. It's only Monday. Alot could still happen.
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Looks like they copied their early morning update.
 
DustinWX said:
Looks like they copied their early morning update.
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Agreed. Might've gone money hungry college professor on the disco & changed a few words for the short-term forecast & left the long-term notes the same. I didn't see this AM's but I'm guessing the phrasing was similar.
 
Delete or move this if appropriate, but ...
Folks, FWIW, yours truly, the board Curmudgeon, is sitting way down here really hoping and rooting for y'all to get a nice taste of early winter, and hoping that it just sets the stage for more and more well into late January, and with a miracle, beyond.
Best Wishes!
Phil
 
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How's the Brazillian? Seriously, it did very well last year, just not sure of its range?
 
Question for Eric or Chris, I notice the models showing mixed precipitation into central Georgia, would zr or sleet be more like in those locals? Thanks
 
metwannabe said:
And this is the result, why do I not like being this close to the bulls-eye now?
abb33e81ac14eb1e74340a178e1eec3b.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Luckily from a historical standpoint, Miller A cyclones are usually more kind to the I-95 corridor than the eastern piedmont wrt where the heaviest axis of snow is placed, but we are in a -ENSO event so I guess it's possible that this one could be US 1 centric. Who knows at this pt....
 
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