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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

NorthGaWinter4 said:
Wow... burns said they have been advised to not use the GFS right now “we have been advised to not use the gfs right now, because it has been glitchy”
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Sounds like Trump needs to make the GFS great again. How dare our European competitors have a better model then us. I can here it now. "I'll be making sure that we make yuge changed to our GFS model. It will be the greatest and most sophisticated model ever. Believe me!"

On a serious note glad to see the models honing in on what looks to be a favorable set-up for many hopefully these trends will continue.
 
For our area (NC) haven't really looked closely at other areas, the Euro cools the bl nicely getting us down to freezing plus it's overnight so an ideal situation..... I'm getting confident (cautiously)
 
Brick Tamland said:
These are the kind of posts that annoy me to no end. Just wait and see. No need to be pessimistic. It's going to do what it's going to do, and either way life goes on. Have some hope for a change.
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I wouldn't get so emotional about it. It's just snow. And I'm just kidding with Webb.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
Sounds like Trump needs to make the GFS great again. How dare our European competitors have a better model then us. I can here it now. "I'll be making sure that we make yuge changed to our GFS model. It will be the greatest and most sophisticated model ever. Believe me!"

On a serious note glad to see the models honing in on what looks to be a favorable set-up for many hopefully these trends will continue.
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You are making avatars great again! Sorry completely side tracked for a second.....
 
Most of the graphics and models posted have E TN in a lull or as its said stiffed is this due to forecast temperature profiles or dry slot? Looks like GA NC sweet spots.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Soil temperature forecast from the GFS leading into our event... Not bad, we've seen accumulations with much worse, pretty normal looking soil temps tbh

View attachment 1848
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Wonder if that pocket of higher ground temps is due to Stone Mountain and Arabia Mountain exposed granite (acting like a heat sink)...
24819125_10214601363091976_1039274315_o.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I might decide to stay w/ a friend in northern Greensboro if I don't feel confident enough in all snow event for RDU, I've seen this song and dance so many times before...
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You can hang with me in Winston Salem!! LOL
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think that certainly contributes to this observed anomaly, probably doesnt also help you have the big urban heat island of the Atlanta Metro area
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Acknowledged, though Metro ATL is about 40 miles due west of Stone Mountain. It's in the county of Fulton, dissected to the left of the green circle. Actual downtown ATL shows cooler ground temps per this map.
 
tractor girl said:
Acknowledged, though Metro ATL is about 40 miles due west of Stone Mountain. It's in the county of Fulton, dissected to the left of the green circle. Actual downtown ATL shows cooler ground temps per this map.
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Hmm maybe there is a distortion in the map or something. But i'm not sure. A similar look is displayed say on the GFS with overnight lows also. The lows never get as cold in the cities and stuff like that.
 
WPC Model Discussion...

PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC

BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WEAKENING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CA/AZ SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES TO TALK ABOUT REGARDING A SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WED/WED NIGHT. MODEL AND DETERMINISTIC TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD THE WEST/MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE VALID THU EVENING.

THE 12Z GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO NRN MEXICO FRI MORNING. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARD A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH AXIS...AWAY FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 00/06/12Z GEFS...DO NOT WANT TO BE ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE MODELS. THE 12Z UKMET REPRESENTS THE MOST AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD BUT IT HAS WEAKENED SOME FROM ITS 00Z CYCLE. FOR FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FASTER/EAST WITH THE SRN PORTION OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF MEAN IS CURRENTLY NEAR A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. WHICH IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MORE AGGRESSIVE DIGGING SEEN IN THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF AND FLATTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z NAM/GFS.
 
theskbl17 said:
"New Euro run (12Z ECMWF) hints at a few snowflakes across parts of Central Alabama Friday morning. Temps should be above feeezing, and for now it looks like there will be little impact. More details later this afternoon..."
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Thanks!
 
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