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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Alright, well what seems to be rather clear to me is there will be a lot of moisture around with the highest rainfall totals along the NC/SC coasts.

Now... one of the things we need to figure out is just how much temperatures are affected with all this moisture around. I can already say with confidence, projected highs will be off under a steady deck of precipitation (modeled too warmly) especially during the day with amy appreciable rates.

What is NOT clear...
The problem enlies yet again...a ton of energy and several subtle waves and as usual, which one develops is the problem the guidance wants to resolve. There is definitely 2 distinct, maybe 3 pieces of energy with a vigorous arctic s/w diving down on Friday/Saturday... and there is a potential that one of our s/w's maybe in limbo lack of data land.
 
Well, all I can say is, I'm not going with the GFS fully to the extent. I remember last winter season, the GFS was showing that "big" snow event, and the "event" basically turned out to be nothing. It seems like when the GFS doesn't project nothing, it's going to happen of what the other models are suggesting. When the GFS does show something, it seems like nothing happens, or it turns out to be basically nothing. Also, I recall most mets weren't going with the GFS last season with that system, but yet jumped on the band wagon and rode the GFS out at the last minute. Not going that route this season. This is why I go with a blend of models, of which ever are in agreement with each other the most.
 
Might be too warm this run; will have to look at better maps.
 
Yeah, this run isn't going to be as good. Waiting for a couple frames to post the map, but not as good as 12z.

Edit: I stand corrected for NC.
 
Bad maps, but euro seems to have the low pressure in the same place as the nam. Can’t see the moisture but its not OTS i don’t believe
 
Thru 84, rainfall is from Central SC southward. Temperatures on EURO 45 at KCHS. 43 KCAE. Moisture started expanding northward but all rain at this point.
 
New 00z Euro:
new.png


Old 12z Euro:
old.png
 
Keep in mind those maps, include sleet and it wont be 10:1 for many areas.
 
90 and 96 some mixing in GA and scattered mixing in SC.. better in NC, temperatures falling in Central and Upper SC. Coastal regions still slow to fall despite .25" rates per 6 hours.
 
Stormsfury said:
90 and 96 some mixing in GA and scattered mixing in SC.. better in NC, temperatures falling in Central and Upper SC. Coastal regions still slow to fall despite .25" rates per 6 hours.
Click to expand...
Still have a little time to work on the NW shield of precip
 
Verbatim I think temperatures are too warm with steady precipitation plus evaporational cooling. Did notice that the TD boundary lags spuriously back into Central GA/SC for quite awhile.
 
The models are starting to come into agreement of the placement of the snowfall. But they're going to be all over the place with the accumulations. For now, I'm going with a 8:1 ratio with this setup. As of now, going with a blend of Euro, CMC and NAM. Will add the GFS into the grid if the GFS comes on board with the other models. Still going with a 30% chance of accumulating snowfall from east central AL, through Atlanta, up towards Upstate SC and into western/central NC. If current trends continue, will bump up the percentage to 80% chance. If any snowfall, it would be a heavy, wet snow because of a moist convective SW flow in the upper levels. Due to the convective SW flow, may have to bump the ratios up.
 
Stormsfury said:
Verbatim I think temperatures are too warm with steady precipitation plus evaporational cooling. Did notice that the TD boundary lags spuriously back into Central GA/SC for quite awhile.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the pbp and welcome to Southernwx!

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
NAM is a lot less snowy in Texas at 42 hours vs the 0z

less precip in general

precip really falling apart at 51. Not even close to last run

57 hours the only snow is near the TX/MX border lol. Heavy snow was falling across E AL/Atlanta last run by now

66 hours snow has been relegated to Mexico.... just some light rain south of Atlanta, no snow anywhere
 
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Through hour 69, pathetic run. Nothing really.. maybe a tad bit around the NC mountains & Far Northern GA. Surface temps, no go on top of all of that.

Glad the NAM decided to go back in line instead of hyping everyone up for no reason again, though.
 
Well, there's actually a good bit of precip past 69, and 850s crashing. Maybe Upstate SC and NC will score again, to a lesser extent, this run.
 
Nam started to get good end of run. Still little snow event for the deep south. Good ways to go with this storm to become worse or better. Not every run will look the same.
 
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Shawn said:
Well, there's actually a good bit of precip past 69, and 850s crashing. Maybe Upstate SC and NC will score again, to a lesser extent, this run.
Click to expand...
I can only imagine if the Nam could have went further in time what it would look like.
 
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I highlighted the first line because it sums up the issue with this event perfectly. I think it's best not to marry yourself to any model's operational run yet. (that includes the EURO) I've seen this song and dance before, always coming down to the last wire....If you still see a token flake(s) flying in the sky you should still consider that a win for December.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Extended forecast continues to be somewhat challenging as enhanced
swath of moisture remains draped across the region, and chilly air
filters in to the state from the northwest. Additionally,
amplified trough will remain positioned over the eastern U.S.,
with several upper level waves embedded within the flow aloft.
The model run-to-run consistency in addition to the individual
model solutions continues to vary on the timing, moisture and
intensity of these waves and the impact to north and central
Georgia. For now, have continued slight chance pops for early
Friday morning, Friday night/Saturday morning, and Saturday
night/Sunday morning, and have indicated light snow or `rain or
snow` in the wx grids. QPF continues to be rather limited, and
have not included any accumulations at this time. The model 850 mb
temperatures continue to be -6 to -8C Saturday and closer to -12C
Sunday morning. These temperatures, combined with sub-freezing
overnight temperatures, will support all snow for any precip that
does develop.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
Meh, GFS has the snowy fring into NC, about CLT and east. Not NAM tactic like last night!
 
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