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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Stormsfury said:
Things to take note of is the PNA ridge strength trends. It's been looking a little stronger each run and in response appears to be diving energy a little more south and west in response.

There's been a trend that the longwave trough has also been looking more positively orientated also with each run as a result.

One thing to also note is just how cold and dense the arctic airmass is and might not reflect well in the 850mb scheme...thought I would mention that since it has been some time since a real shot of arctic air intruded the South.
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Great points, and great to see you posting.
 
Stormsfury said:
Things to take note of is the PNA ridge strength trends. It's been looking a little stronger each run and in response appears to be diving energy a little more south and west in response.

There's been a trend that the longwave trough has also been looking more positively orientated also with each run as a result.

One thing to also note is just how cold and dense the arctic airmass is and might not reflect well in the 850mb scheme...thought I would mention that since it has been some time since a real shot of arctic air intruded the South.
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Another plus to the PNA is that the operational models and the EPS and GEFS agree on the PNA ridge to stay around for awhile. As far as the tilts go, its good that they are coming in more positive as that opens the door to digging troughs and could lead to a big storm for some. However, I would still rather see an overrunning event sometime this winter if possible.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Another plus to the PNA is that the operational models and the EPS and GEFS agree on the PNA ridge to stay around for awhile. As far as the tilts go, its good that they are coming in more positive as that opens the door to digging troughs and could lead to a big storm for some. However, I would still rather see an overrunning event sometime this winter if possible.
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Well this batch of moisture for the SE will likely be ana frontal on the initial push and the fact that for the 2nd s/w coming down on Friday is vigorous sets up a possible surprise currently not seen by modeling.

At this time, inland coastal areas of SC Friday are in line for a possible ending as wet snow (no accumulation expected at all at this time).

Key factors here though are the setup for the cold to establish and a later startand end to precipitation...which may allow the airmass to establish better in line with moisture advection.
 
Stormsfury said:
Things to take note of is the PNA ridge strength trends. It's been looking a little stronger each run and in response appears to be diving energy a little more south and west in response.

There's been a trend that the longwave trough has also been looking more positively orientated also with each run as a result.

One thing to also note is just how cold and dense the arctic airmass is and might not reflect well in the 850mb scheme...thought I would mention that since it has been some time since a real shot of arctic air intruded the South.
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Good observations, you should post more!

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metwannabe said:
Rah NWS excited about our chances.... Not

Pattern recognition strongly suggests that the more robust the moisture influx into the region (the warmer aloft it will get), and conversely the less robust the moisture influx, the cooler it will be. Bottom line, this appears to be a real no win situation for snow lovers with the supply of cold dry air just not there, and the stronger the influx of WAA to generate precipitation this far north means a warmer mid level forecast - if the models get wetter they will get warmer. The best chance of any snow showers may come at the tail end of the system, as the cold air chases the moisture (but this rarely brings measurable snow for us). This would be Friday if it occurs

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Heard through the grapevine that Huffman thought their forecast discussion was pretty lazy. Sure I see their line of rationale but the temperatures aloft are really very cold to be quite honest... Rarely do you see anything but a melting layer but to 750-800 hPa but instead we have 850s of ~ -5C on both the Euro and GFS. We would need to see this area of low pressure really begin to deepen considerably more than forecast (which is possible) to throw enough moisture and WAA to make the profile too warm at least compared to what's currently modeled. Now, if you want to argue that we may not have high enough precipitation rates to get something going then that's more understandable... Yeah we don't have the classical transport of low-level cold air w/ a big high to the north but an arctic front will move through late Wed and allow some pretty decent low level cold air to become entrenched in the region since our system has slowed down considerably in the models so it's not like we don't have much to work with. The transport would be more of an issue if we didnt have much cold air to begin with...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Heard through the grapevine that Huffman thought their forecast discussion was pretty lazy. Sure I see their line of rationale but the temperatures aloft are really very cold to be quite honest... Rarely do you see anything but a melting layer but to 750-800 hPa but instead we have 850s of ~ -5C on both the Euro and GFS. We would need to see this area of low pressure really begin to deepen considerably more than forecast (which is possible) to throw enough moisture and WAA to make the profile too warm at least compared to what's currently modeled. Now, if you want to argue that we may not have high enough precipitation rates to get something going then that's more understandable... Yeah we don't have the classical transport of low-level cold air w/ a big high to the north but an arctic front will move through late Wed and allow some pretty decent low level cold air to become entrenched in the region since our system has slowed down considerably in the models so it's not like we don't have much to work with. The transport would be more of an issue if we didnt have much cold air to begin with...
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Actually thought their rationale, in the most simplest of terms, was somewhat backwards considering this was most likely going to be a precip rate driven snow (IF). Thanks for your input as always..

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metwannabe said:
Actually thought their rationale, in the most simplest of terms, was somewhat backwards considering this was most likely going to be a precip rate driven snow (IF). Thanks for your input as always..

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Yeah that's right. What they should have said is hey we see there's cold air in place but if we produce a lot of condensation in the column via moisture transport coupled w/ WAA there's a limit on how much wintry precipitation you can get in this kind of setup instead of "it's all rain for everyone" because yes we will need decent rates to get snow but w/o some sort of replenishment of cold air we could produce enough condensation and WAA to warm the column to produce rain but it would take a lot to do that
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even through 60 hours our disturbance off the Baja California is taking its sweet time to come east vs the past few runs
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Gonna be a kick in the gonads for us if this goes from a weak system where we wonder if rates will be enough to cool the column to get sn to a full blown lp with great QPF totals and waa kills us, it's always something

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Saw that Spann shared some accumulation maps from the overnight run of the Euro. Will be interesting to see how much of a tizzy that gets some of the AL folks into.
 
metwannabe said:
Gonna be a kick in the gonads for us if this goes from a weak system where we wonder if rates will be enough to cool the column to get sn to a full blown lp with great QPF totals and waa kills us, it's always something

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I'd rather have a storm that's too strong in this case because we would probably get something on the back end and just be more likely to get snow period, whereas a weaker low that's suppressed offshore could shutoff any significant precipitation despite their being more than enough cold air in place
 
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