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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Anyway, IMO, the UK/CMC suite is probably too wound up, while the GFS has been too flat. I actually like the Euro's solution, maybe just a little more precip back west. NAM isn't trustworthy beyond 48ish. I think a decent shot for a slushy inch or two is west of Roanoke Rapids over toward Roxboro and down west of Charlotte into the upstate of SC and SW from there. It would be so nice to have a big banana high instead of a Lakes Low.
 
FFC posted this special weather statement half an hour ago:

"We are following the development of potential early season winter
weather for portions of North and Central Georgia beginning late
Thursday night with impacts lasting into Saturday morning. A few
locations are reporting some light sleet mixing in with the rain
this afternoon generally along and north of Interstate 20 which
will continue into the early evening. Thereafter, for the
remainder of the overnight, we would expect light rain or just
cloudy skies.

The rain shield will expand northward through Thursday afternoon
with 80 percent rain chances across Central Georgia decreasing to
30 to 40 percent over the Atlanta metro. While this is occurring,
colder temperatures will begin moving in from the north with mid
to upper 30s for most areas late Thursday evening. Somewhere in
the zone where the precipitation meets the coldest air, the
possibility exists to see a transition to a mix of light rain and
snow and then possibly to all snow Late Thursday night into
Friday AM.

Our anticipation at this time is that this zone will only be on
the order of 20 to 40 miles wide and the exact location of where
this zone sets up has a high amount of uncertainty. We are
therefore asking all residents to be prepared for the possibility
of a wintry mix late Thursday night into Friday and stay tuned to
forecast updates through Thursday from this office and local
media outlets. The narrow zone that experiences wintry weather
could see from one half to one inch of snow accumulations by late
Friday.

In addition, much colder temperatures will plunge into the area
Friday night into Saturday morning. Although most all of the
precipitation will be gone by then, residual wet roadways will
freeze very quickly prior to any drying that takes place. This
black ice scenario would create hazardous travel conditions
areawide Friday night into Saturday morning, especially for
elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses."
 
3KM NAM shows a fairly narrow band of accumulating snow in the South with GA IMO the big winner of this event.

snku_acc.conus.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm dead serious. I would love to see some flakes flying around in early December, even if they're mixed with the rain. There aren't going to be inches of snow on the ground in Raleigh, most likely. It will probably snow for a little bit, but that's probably about it. Realistic.
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I agree with you on this one, I think our best bet is maybe some token flakes near the onset and then hope for some back end action as the low pulls away, temperatures in the mid levels are already starting to look just a smidge too warm, if we had another degree or two to work with, if the event were in the heart of winter or we had more snow between us and Ontario (because there's absolutely none rn), and/or some sort of mechanism to transport some of this cold air southward (which we don't) we probably would have been okay. It's early December, whatever most years of late we couldnt stay below the 70s at this time so this is a huge win to finally get a halfway decent December again
 
Brick Tamland said:
Nope, the way you came off with the wording of the post was snarky.

By the way, if you take away 50% for this, and 50% for that, there's not another 30% to take away like you said.
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I was thinking of it this way:
2" - 50% of 2" = 1"
1" - 50% of 1" = .5"
.5" - 30% of .5" = .35" max
 
Interesting 00z runs coming tonight. After all the 12z runs it looks as if the NAM is a little south of the other guidance . Will be interesting to see if the stronger system idea continues or if a fast weaker system comes back into play. Id place my bets on a faster system as systems tend to verify quicker vs what is shown on the models.

I still need a 50 mile NW shift so I'm all for a slower more amped up system
 
Webberweather53 said:
I agree with you on this one, I think our best bet is maybe some token flakes near the onset and then hope for some back end action as the low pulls away, temperatures in the mid levels are already starting to look just a smidge too warm, if we had another degree or two to work with, if the event were in the heart of winter or we had more snow between us and Ontario (because there's absolutely none rn), and/or some sort of mechanism to transport some of this cold air southward (which we don't) we probably would have been okay. It's early December, whatever most years of late we couldnt stay below the 70s at this time so this is a huge win to finally get a halfway decent December again
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Yeah, agree 100%. In the heart of winter, these kinds of setups are usually a struggle...or have been lately. Marginal is hard to work with then, much less at the beginning of December and especially given the lack of snow cover and other things you mentioned. But, yeah, it's fun to track something and get off to a fast start this winter. We should have several more events to track over the next couple/three weeks too.
 
Storm5 said:
Interesting 00z runs coming tonight. After all the 12z runs it looks as if the NAM is a little south of the other guidance . Will be interesting to see if the stronger system idea continues or if a fast weaker system comes back into play. Id place my bets on a faster system as systems tend to verify quicker vs what is shown on the models.

I still need a 50 mile NW shift so I'm all for a slower more amped up system
Click to expand...

Keep in mind with the NAM (as I've picked up from my synoptic course), it's an early cycle model and uses old information from the previous GFS forecast and analysis near the edge of its domain along with some new observations to make its forecast so its still somewhat dependent and tied to those 12z runs
 
Storm5 said:
Interesting 00z runs coming tonight. After all the 12z runs it looks as if the NAM is a little south of the other guidance . Will be interesting to see if the stronger system idea continues or if a fast weaker system comes back into play. Id place my bets on a faster system as systems tend to verify quicker vs what is shown on the models.

I still need a 50 mile NW shift so I'm all for a slower more amped up system
Click to expand...

Now in regards to Montgomery, would I want a more amped up system or somewhere in the middle?
 
Well, suffice to say here in NE Forsyth Cty (Ga.) things have gotten far more interesting that I thought just 24 hours ago.

Gotta take those accumulation maps with a grain of salt, sure. But you almost have to think there either is a NW jog from current thinking and/or the NW edge of the precip is a bit underdone.

We always have to thread the needle with these things here, and while this one is no exception, the cold looks to be mostly in place. Add in rates that may keep a warm nose to the S and E, and we just may have a surprise slushy 2” for somebody on the grass by late Friday.

Two weeks before the start of winter, I’ll take it. We shall see.

—30—


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Atlanta Mets starting to bring it up. All emphasizing that is a VERY hard forecast! Even David Chandley
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Very hard forecast, some will see from nothing to 2-3" at best as of now. Maybe more. Never can tell about these setups
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Atlanta Mets starting to bring it up. All emphasizing that is a VERY hard forecast! Even David Chandley
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Yeah, it's a hard one to pin down for sure. The good thing about it, if you're wrong, most likely it won't be one of those situations that will likely cause a lot of disruption like an ice storm or big snowstorm with temps in the mid 20s. A bust here means you either call for some wet snow that will melt in a hurry, but it ends up raining. Or you call for mostly rain and hedge toward some snow mixing in, and you bust and end up with a quick 3 inches that melts away. I guess scenario 2 could have a minor impact, but it's more of an egg on the face situation than a critical forecast with dire consequences...at least for the most part, anyway. I guess I'm saying, if you're going to bust, this is a good one to bust.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, agree 100%. In the heart of winter, these kinds of setups are usually a struggle...or have been lately. Marginal is hard to work with then, much less at the beginning of December and especially given the lack of snow cover and other things you mentioned. But, yeah, it's fun to track something and get off to a fast start this winter. We should have several more events to track over the next couple/three weeks too.
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Really hard to take a threat even in the dead of winter seriously without a nice CAD in the Carolinas. Lakes low rather than a nice "H" up north has been the problem all along long IMO. Hopefully the next few weeks we can score a nicely timed high. It seemed like we had a bunch of them the last few years and this year's overall setup with the -EPO/+PNA looks similar. Maybe that pattern can start to repeat sooner rather than later.
 
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