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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Rain Cold said:
Yeah, agree 100%. In the heart of winter, these kinds of setups are usually a struggle...or have been lately. Marginal is hard to work with then, much less at the beginning of December and especially given the lack of snow cover and other things you mentioned. But, yeah, it's fun to track something and get off to a fast start this winter. We should have several more events to track over the next couple/three weeks too.
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Yeah expecting an extremely big storm in December is often a lost cause, the upper end of the distribution of snows in December is pitiful in comparison to January and especially February & March in our part of the state. RDU has only seen 7 storms produce 6" or more of snow in this month (most recently in December 2010). Part of that may be attributable to random variability, we may not have seen enough events quite yet even in a 125+ year record to really get a true idea of the "actual" distribution of snowfall possible at this time of the year in this background climate in RDU. (hence NWP simulations are often run w/ climate and weather models and re-itereated tens of thousands of times to reproduce a spread of events with a sample size the pales in comparison to actual observations, but given our limited understanding of these phenomena and limitations in the NWP simulation, there are drawbacks to this)

In any case, the largest snowfall thus far that RDU has observed since 1887 in December was 9.1" on December 11-12 1958, the same storm dropped 23" in Fort Bragg, NC and is the last 1+ foot snowfall event in Fayetteville, NC. Again, this probably doesnt provide the most adequate representation of the true theoretical max that's possible here in RDU in December but I think there is something to be said in that observations suggest the theoretical max snowfall is lower earlier in the winter which means we probably shouldn't get upset if these early threats don't materialize...
December 11-12 1958 NC Snowmap.png
 
The great news is, were tracking an early December storm. Im thankful for that
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah expecting an extremely big storm in December is often a lost cause, the upper end of the distribution of snows in December is pitiful in comparison to January and especially February & March in our part of the state. RDU has only seen 7 storms produce 6" or more of snow in this month (most recently in December 2010). Part of that may be attributable to random variability, we may not have seen enough events quite yet even in a 125+ year record to really get a true idea of the "actual" distribution of snowfall possible at this time of the year in this background climate in RDU. (hence NWP simulations are often run w/ climate and weather models and re-itereated tens of thousands of times to reproduce a spread of events with a sample size the pales in comparison to actual observations, but given our limited understanding of these phenomena and limitations in the NWP simulation, there are drawbacks to this)

In any case, the largest snowfall thus far that RDU has observed since 1887 in December was 9.1" on December 11-12 1958, the same storm dropped 23" in Fort Bragg, NC and is the last 1+ foot snowfall event in Fayetteville, NC. Again, this probably doesnt provide the most adequate representation of the true theoretical max that's possible here in RDU in December but I think there is something to be said in that observations suggest the theoretical max snowfall is lower earlier in the winter which means we probably shouldn't get upset if these early threats don't materialize...
View attachment 1906
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Wonder what temps were like for that event? Just looking at the snowfall distribution, it looks as though they must have been pretty cold. I know you can't really assume that with any confidence from a snowfall map, but I'd guess they were colder than what we're looking at over the next few days. Anyway, good stuff!
 
RollTide18 said:
Pulling for the 51 hour NAM? I'm screwed lol I mean I already know how it's gonna go here, seen it plenty of times, rain most of the event, hour of snow at the end.
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I think will see a nice band set up, and bring us 2-3"
 
SnowNiner said:
Really hard to take a threat even in the dead of winter seriously without a nice CAD in the Carolinas. Lakes low rather than a nice "H" up north has been the problem all along long IMO. Hopefully the next few weeks we can score a nicely timed high. It seemed like we had a bunch of them the last few years and this year's overall setup with the -EPO/+PNA looks similar. Maybe that pattern can start to repeat sooner rather than later.
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I checked all of the modeling this afternoon, and the next couple of weeks look to feature various clippers/overrunning potentials or waves developing off the SE coast. So we'll have some more things to track. Unfortunately, I'm not detecting a pattern of sprawling high pressure building across the northern tier like I like to see, but it still looks chilly enough to time something out. Toward the end of their runs, the models are tending to dampen the intrusion of the western ridge up into Canada as well as the intrusion of the eastern US trough. But it feels like more of a relaxation as opposed to a snap toward the other direction. Will be interesting to see what the Weeklies have to say in a bit.
 
Rain Cold said:
Wonder what temps were like for that event? Just looking at the snowfall distribution, it looks as though they must have been pretty cold. I know you can't really assume that with any confidence from a snowfall map, but I'd guess they were colder than what we're looking at over the next few days. Anyway, good stuff!
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Temperatures were solidly in the low-middle 20s to even the upper 10s during this event in Fayetteville and Raleigh so the ratios were probably a little higher than what we're usually accustomed to in spite of a lot of precipitation falling and presumably a moist column aloft which often leads to lower ratios...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Temperatures were solidly in the low-middle 20s to even the upper 10s during this event in Fayetteville and Raleigh so the ratios were probably a little higher than what we're usually accustomed to in spite of a lot of precipitation falling and presumably a moist column aloft which often leads to lower ratios...
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Nice! That's the kind of winter storm I like -- where you don't have to worry about a degree or two giving you rain.
 
rgem_asnow_seus_16.png
How can you ignore this
 
Well I have to agree with FFC's overall point of view... A narrow band that sets up could be a"nightmare" if it impacts right across Metro ATL, and not so much 50 miles either way... Can one say it will be a combination of almost nowcasting and "impact" forcasting... URGH
 
RGEM 850s & 700 hPa temps don't look too bad, I could certainly see a little burst of snow at the onset of the event even in RDU before we probably switch to a very cold moderate-heavy rain
rgem_T850_seus_16.png
 
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