Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[SnowNiner]

I checked all of the modeling this afternoon, and the next couple of weeks look to feature various clippers/overrunning potentials or waves developing off the SE coast. So we'll have some more things to track. Unfortunately, I'm not detecting a pattern of sprawling high pressure building across the northern tier like I like to see, but it still looks chilly enough to time something out. Toward the end of their runs, the models are tending to dampen the intrusion of the western ridge up into Canada as well as the intrusion of the eastern US trough. But it feels like more of a relaxation as opposed to a snap toward the other direction. Will be interesting to see what the Weeklies have to say in a bit.

Yeah it seems like we're on borrowed time. At some point we're going to lose the trough in the east. Great to hear we have the energy flying around. Let's put a High up north and low down south, put them together and let's play ball!! Hopefully if the pattern does relax, we get it back in January and try again.

Oh, I'm in the storm thread, sorry. I am surprised the GFS/EURO did not follow the Ukie in todays runs and ramp up. That has led the way the last few years IIRC. I still think the precip won't be the problem. Congrats to all the NW piedmont peeps who score in December.

 

[accu35]

Man that would be a dream scenario for here, obviously with the lower amounts, hopefully the other models start coming back south a bit, fearing that the NW Trend is in full effect though.

These short ranges are pretty solid around yours and my house.

 

[RollTide18]

These short ranges are pretty solid around yours and my house.

FWIW Spann did say the 3km nam was more accurate under 48 hrs

 

[packfan98]

Who’s got the gfs happy hour play-by-play?

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

is the GFS gonna cave here?? I think it is so far

 

[malak05]

GFS play by play would be a computer with a dunce hat on it....

 

[accu35]

Gfs looks better

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

GFS looks more NAM like...wont be as good for the NGA area but a better trend more west

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

as i say that, GFS sticks to its guns and its awful

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Looks the same as 12z. Gonna be late to the party it appears

 

[accu35]

 

[Parker]

GFS continues to be major outlier compared to Euro, RGEM, UKMET, CMC, and even the NAM.

The euro and EPS moving NW just awhile ago was very encouraging.

 

[malak05]

Did we every get the Ensembles from the Euro posted?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GFS was by itself last year and we see how that turned out. Kinda happy it’s like this tbh

 

[accu35]

Gfs 1-2" ill take that. Trends are better.

 

[malak05]

GFS was by itself last year and we see how that turned out. Kinda happy it’s like this tbh

So your saying it adds another layer of validation to other models maybe less is more

 

[NCSNOW]

I

Who’s got the gfs happy hour play-by-play?

I've yet to see a run on any model in the past 4 or 5 cycles that didnt have a few inches+ in our back yard. Ill be in Boone Fri-,Sun a.m. lol

 

[Brick Tamland]

Gfs 1-2" ill take that. Trends are better.

Where are you? You can put the location in your profile.

 

[Mitch West]

GFS wants nothing to due with the great state of South Carolina lol

 

[Rain Cold]

Yeah it seems like we're on borrowed time. At some point we're going to lose the trough in the east. Great to hear we have the energy flying around. Let's put a High up north and low down south, put them together and let's play ball!! Hopefully if the pattern does relax, we get it back in January and try again.

Oh, I'm in the storm thread, sorry. I am surprised the GFS/EURO did not follow the Ukie in todays runs and ramp up. That has led the way the last few years IIRC. I still think the precip won't be the problem. Congrats to all the NW piedmont peeps who score in December.

Good post. I am paying particular attention this year to how much the UK overamps up systems in the 48-72 hour window, if at all. My suspicion is that it tends to.