Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

[Bham 99]

View attachment 136999
I don’t normally trust farmers almanac but figured I’d post this

Pretty sharp cut off between mild and wet and cold and snowy. It's like a La Nina and the Bermuda high is not letting the cold front sweep south. Makes no sense.

 

[Carolina Jones]

The snow and rain cutoff always runs somewhere through Wake County.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Pretty sharp cut off between mild and wet and cold and snowy. It's like a La Nina and the Bermuda high is not letting the cold front sweep south. Makes no sense.

Battle Zone

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Pretty sharp cut off between mild and wet and cold and snowy. It's like a La Nina and the Bermuda high is not letting the cold front sweep south. Makes no sense.

I think it's gonna be one of those frustrating winters for folks along I-20 and southward. I-40 will do great.

 

[FallsLake]

The graph labels on all these Almanac graphs are stupid. At least the OFA isn't as horrible this year.

Yep, the Old Farmer's Almanac is supposed to use actual meteorology/climatology to help create their forecast. To put a map out like this is embarrassing.


There will always be a battle ground outside of elevation. Even if it's only 50 miles wide. If I was creating this map, I would at least add a battle zone just to the north and west of the "Mild Wet' and "Cold Snowy"; if I was working for them. Terrible map....

 

[NoSnowATL]

I think it's gonna be one of those frustrating winters for folks along I-20 and southward. I-40 will do great.

It’s always frustrating for I-20. I lived it for 37 years. I still have nightmares.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

It’s always frustrating for I-20. I lived it for 37 years. I still have nightmares.

Honestly its probably better to live in Florida and be far away from any wintry precip chances than to be right on the edge so many times and usually miss out.

 

[Rain Cold]

Yep, the Old Farmer's Almanac is supposed to use actual meteorology/climatology to help create their forecast. To put a map out like this is embarrassing.
View attachment 137018

There will always be a battle ground outside of elevation. Even if it's only 50 miles wide. If I was creating this map, I would at least add a battle zone just to the north and west of the "Mild Wet' and "Cold Snowy"; if I was working for them. Terrible map....

I agree with you, but I would honestly never use the term battle zone. I don't know who came up with that several years ago, but it sounds goofy. I would refer to it as mix or something.

 

[GaStorm]

I agree with you, but I would honestly never use the term battle zone. I don't know who came up with that several years ago, but it sounds goofy. I would refer to it as mix or something.

Whenever I hear the term battle zone I think of severe storms not winter weather.

 

[FallsLake]

I agree with you, but I would honestly never use the term battle zone. I don't know who came up with that several years ago, but it sounds goofy. I would refer to it as mix or something.

Maybe transition zone. There very well could be a lot of sharp cut offs with precip types and temps. But the question is where. Their particular map would indicate a lot (if not every) storm cuts up through central SC and NC.

But what am I doing? I'm focusing on another winter forecast, when I promised myself I wouldn't do that.

I should only worry about the Halloween storm.... ?

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Whenever I hear the term battle zone I think of severe storms not winter weather.

When I hear battle zone I think of war.

 

[LickWx]

When I hear battle zone I think of war.

I think battle zone is a corny term

 

[Bham 99]

Maybe they should call it the ice zone

 

[SD]

Maybe they should call it storm track bc if that's where the battle is that's where the low is

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This Nino coming comparing to other similar ones up is notorious for sharp cutoffs between 40/85

 

[LickWx]

This Nino coming comparing to other similar ones up is notorious for sharp cutoffs between 40/85

I’m ready, my collards gon like cold winter rain long as we don’t drop to the teens

 

[LickWx]

Maybe they should call it storm track bc if that's where the battle is that's where the low is

Does any serious meteorologist even use the term battle zone in their maps or is it just online weather nerds?

 

[Tarheel1]

I agree with you, but I would honestly never use the term battle zone. I don't know who came up with that several years ago, but it sounds goofy. I would refer to it as mix or something.

I would refer to it as “ it’s gonna rain 95% of the time, a few sleet pellets if you’re lucky” zone

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I would refer to it as “ it’s gonna rain 95% of the time, a few sleet pellets if you’re lucky” zone

I think of it as the "tease you by getting your hopes up" zone. You see the mtns get it and the local mets make you think you have a chance but most of the time the only thing that gets crushed is your hope.

 

[BullCityWx]

This Nino coming comparing to other similar ones up is notorious for sharp cutoffs between 40/85

I’d tell people to get familiar with the rain/snow lines of the 1980s

 

[Tarheel1]

All in on this from TOFA
And their 80% accuracy! : This is for my region!

 

[Rain Cold]

David Schlotthauer dropping the schlotthammer for the eastern US, going for 2-10' of snow for portions of the NE, while Mack bakes in the Midwest.

 

[Rain Cold]

MBCGFYRGT going bangers for the SE oh man boom aleet!!

 

[LickWx]

David Schlotthauer dropping the schlotthammer for the eastern US, going for 2-10' of snow for portions of the NE, while Mack bakes in the Midwest.

Does nor’easters mean cold rain while big snow is where the snow is? I think you found the winner map rain cold it has the cut off line

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Snow

 

[LickWx]

Snow View attachment 137049

I like how you conveniently left wake but then included all of mecklenburg… weenie much? Boooo, we get more snow

 

[BullCityWx]

Snow View attachment 137049

Okay bet

 

[Flotown]

Okay bet

me likie for my area..but we will see

 

[Tarheel1]

Would be fun!

 

[LukeBarrette]

Snow View attachment 137049

Hopefully lots of things to report in Blacksburg this winter?

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Stevo24]

If were supposed to be above average thru December, when do all the big dog snowstorms predicted this year arrive? January-March?

 

[iGRXY]

Haven’t seen a weather channel temperature prediction map be right in my lifetime regardless of what they were calling for

 

[jeremyt]

I would actually take an AN Oct-Dec instead of a BN Nov-Dec and then a warm up in Jan-Feb.

 

[Bham 99]

We do not under any circumstances need below normal temperatures until January.

 

[weather bubba]

Has anyone seen any Wooly Worms yet? I've seen one and he was almost all black from head to tail! That is supposed to mean that we are in store for a cold stormy winter. I hope I wasn't seeing things or misidentified the caterpillar I saw.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Has anyone seen any Wooly Worms yet? I've seen one and he was almost all black from head to tail! That is supposed to mean that we are in store for a cold stormy winter. I hope I wasn't seeing things or misidentified the caterpillar I saw.

Wooly worms now have 54 genders. Don’t be so rude.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Tarheel1]

Would be fun! View attachment 137057

If were supposed to be above average thru December, when do all the big dog snowstorms predicted this year arrive? January-March?

Backloaded!

 

[mrdaddyman]

We do not under any circumstances need below normal temperatures until January.

I'll be fine wearing shorts until Christmas Day if it means we get a cold/snowy winter after that.