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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

NickyBGuarantee said:
Whether you like it or not cold will come if these looks continue .. we will suffer through more heat and above average temps until maybe the 2nd week of march .. but when that trough out west breaks down and the -NAO ridge builds in and retrogrades west enough.. fun things will happen underneath. Enjoy the warmth now cause it will be cold again. View attachment 133449View attachment 133450View attachment 133451
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Late March cold is upper 50s and low 60s. Give up Nicole.
 
I’ll take Ice Ice Baby for a $1000 Alex. Here’s your question “Has it ever snowed in the southeast?”. Why Alex, everyone knows it can’t snow in the lower 48, so my answer is no.

The correct answer is yes, records indicate it has indeed snowed in the southeast back in the 19th and 20th centuries.
 
US.png


That's a lot of winter weather advisories; good to see at least some parts of the country got to experience it this year. Yes, I'm a bit bitter...
 

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Avalanche said:
It’s been too warm for us to have any winter precipitation going forward.
Click to expand...
You’re probably right about winter precipitation going forward, but a warm February doesn’t necessarily mean nothing in March. In both 2017 and 2018 February averaged well above normal with multiple days reaching 80 degrees at CLT and RDU, and we still managed an accumulating snowfall in March 2017 and several small events in March 2018. February 2018 was actually the warmest on record at KCLT, 8.8 degrees above normal. March 2018 ended up being 3.6 below normal with trace snowfall amounts on 5 different days.
 
CltNative90 said:
You’re probably right about winter precipitation going forward, but a warm February doesn’t necessarily mean nothing in March. In both 2017 and 2018 February averaged well above normal with multiple days reaching 80 degrees at CLT and RDU, and we still managed an accumulating snowfall in March 2017 and several small events in March 2018. February 2018 was actually the warmest on record at KCLT, 8.8 degrees above normal. March 2018 ended up being 3.6 below normal with trace snowfall amounts on 5 different days.
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Yes, sorry I just went sarcastic with my post. People always say things like “it’s been too warm to snow”.

Or they’ll say it’s been so warm it won’t stick. Etc.

I always argue back and say “well you’ve been in a warm house for 6 hours so you should be warm for a few hours outside”. The point I try to make is that things are much more transparent and objective than what happened a few days ago. Ground, trees, shrubs, roads, and cars all conform quickly to the new temps. They don’t give a damn about it being 55 degrees a few days ago. Drive your car with a hot engine for a while, turn it off and still watch snow accumulate on it.
 
@Avalanche
(I seen what you did there).. So
Too be Fair, (listed it @ the bottom) ;) 30 years ago this month..

Moving My post from the March thread, As not to Rile-up the MODS.. ;)

Anyhoo..
Folks DO NOT give up HOPE..:eek:;)

I dug into the NCSU Database..

Looked through the Data Base, (going back too 1959).. Checking boxes only for SNOW & ICE & Freezing Precip.. (Just for N.C.)..

All OUR MARCH Winter Storms (just snow & freezing stuff)..

What I found..... MOST interesting,, IS,,
Any & ALL the storms that occurred in March,, Were in fact,,,
Board wide (snow Storms), in NC..
Mountains too the Coast..
Maybe this should be in the "Wamby Thread" though...

SO,, I moved My post here....

ALL links Include Synoptic set-ups & Maps.

March 2~3rd 1960

Snow and sleet averaged about a foot deep in the Mountains, ranging downward to a trace on the immediate coast.

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu

March 9th~10th 1960
A snow and ice storm was similar to that of a week before.
Board wide Snow to the Coast, ILM even received 5"
https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=5

March 11th ~ 12th 1960

(EDIT: what a YEAR to (be alive), &&& experience in 1960! during the month of March in N.C.!)



Considerable additional accumulation of snow in the Mountains and southern Piedmont following the snow earlier in the same week, was followed by the greatest March snow of record on the immediate coast.
in the northern Mountains where total snow accumulations reached 3' with drifts to 30 FEET , marooning residents in isolated areas. Again, a board wide NC storm.. additional snow which continued to fall in flurries for several days.
Even Wilmington received 7+" from this Storm..

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu

March 1st~4th 1971

Heavy precipitation the first few days of the month with mostly snow in the Mountains and rain elsewhere, but with some areas getting a mixture of snow, sleet, and rain.

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu

March 1st~2nd 1980

@Shaggy & @Downeastnc Can ya'll give US, Historical accounts?I resided in the Panama Canal Zone at the time.. So, I missed it.
Be cool to hear of your personal accounts.. If ya'll are *OLD* like Me, your what 18~20 something then? Fess-up now.. ;) ;)

(See below)..

On the afternoon and evening of March 2, 1980 North Carolina experienced a major winter storm with heavy snow across the entire state and near blizzard conditions in the eastern part of the state. Snowfall totals were reported as 2 to 7 inches in the mountains, 6 to 8 inches in the piedmont, 12 to 18 inches in the coastal plain, and 7 to 12 inches in the southern coastal area ranging up to 25 inches at Elizabeth City.
one of the biggest snowstorms that eastern North Carolina has ever seen. Winds caused snow drifts up to 8 feet.

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu

It was dubbed the ‘Snowstorm of the Century’ and it happened in early March of 1980.*
During the afternoon and evening of March 2, 1980, North Carolina experienced a major winter storm. Heavy snow and blustery conditions combined to reach almost blizzard conditions. The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm that contains large amounts of snow or blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 MPH and visibility down to less than a quarter of a mile for at least 3 hours.
https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview#:~:text=The precipitation in Eastern North Carolina started as,offshore to 999 mb by 00Z March 3.



Heavy Snow, Blizzard
https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/w...1&end_year=2022&event[]=snow&event[]=ice&pg=3

March 24~25th, 1983
An unusually late winter storm moved through the state producing heavy snow and gale-force winds. Also uncommon was the area of heaviest snow, which extended from the Southern and central Piedmont into the entire coastal area. Snowfall started around dawn near Charlotte and quickly moved northeast.
Snowfall amounts include: Greensboro Trace, Asheville 1", Raleigh-Durham 3", Charlotte 10", Fayetteville 9", Greenville 5", Clinton 8", Elizabeth City 7" and Wilmington 5".

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu



EDIT: How could I forget? just for @Avalanche , 30 years ago, this Month.. What We couldn't see nor Forecast.. ;)
March 12th~14th

The Massive North Carolina Blizzard Of March 1993 Will Never Be Forgotten​

Called ‘the storm of the century,’ those who lived through the record-breaking snowfall of 1993 still talk about it to this day. The strangest part about this snow is that it didn’t occur during your normal snowfall months; it created catastrophe in the middle of March. Just as students at UNC Asheville were preparing for spring break they woke up to over two feet of snow. Throughout the southeast, the storm brought devastation to more than just the Tar Heel State, and although it’s not the largest blizzard in North Carolina history, it still holds records to this day.

https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/north-carolina/1993-snow-storm-nc/

On This Day: The 1993 Storm of the Century

In March 1993, the Storm of the Century struck the U.S. East Coast, claiming more than 270 lives and causing billions of dollars in damage.
www.ncei.noaa.gov www.ncei.noaa.gov
 
Last edited:
SENC said:
@Avalanche
(I seen what you did there).. So
Too be Fair, (listed it @ the bottom) ;) 30 years ago this month..

Moving My post from the March thread, As not to Rile-up the MODS.. ;)

Anyhoo..
Folks DO NOT give up HOPE..:eek:;)

I dug into the NCSU Database..

Looked through the Data Base, (going back too 1959).. Checking boxes only for SNOW & ICE & Freezing Precip.. (Just for N.C.)..

All OUR MARCH Winter Storms (just snow & freezing stuff)..

What I found..... MOST interesting,, IS,,
Any & ALL the storms that occurred in March,, Were in fact,,,
Board wide (snow Storms), in NC..
Mountains too the Coast..
Maybe this should be in the "Wamby Thread" though...

SO,, I moved My post here....

ALL links Include Synoptic set-ups & Maps.

March 2~3rd 1960

Snow and sleet averaged about a foot deep in the Mountains, ranging downward to a trace on the immediate coast.

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu

March 9th~10th 1960
A snow and ice storm was similar to that of a week before.
Board wide Snow to the Coast, ILM even received 5"
https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=5

March 11th ~ 12th 1960

(EDIT: what a YEAR to (be alive), &&& experience in 1960! during the month of March in N.C.!)



Considerable additional accumulation of snow in the Mountains and southern Piedmont following the snow earlier in the same week, was followed by the greatest March snow of record on the immediate coast.
in the northern Mountains where total snow accumulations reached 3' with drifts to 30 FEET , marooning residents in isolated areas. Again, a board wide NC storm.. additional snow which continued to fall in flurries for several days.
Even Wilmington received 7+" from this Storm..

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu

March 1st~4th 1971

Heavy precipitation the first few days of the month with mostly snow in the Mountains and rain elsewhere, but with some areas getting a mixture of snow, sleet, and rain.

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu

March 1st~2nd 1980

@Shaggy & @Downeastnc Can ya'll give US, Historical accounts?I resided in the Panama Canal Zone at the time.. So, I missed it.
Be cool to hear of your personal accounts.. If ya'll are *OLD* like Me, your what 18~20 something then? Fess-up now.. ;) ;)

(See below)..

On the afternoon and evening of March 2, 1980 North Carolina experienced a major winter storm with heavy snow across the entire state and near blizzard conditions in the eastern part of the state. Snowfall totals were reported as 2 to 7 inches in the mountains, 6 to 8 inches in the piedmont, 12 to 18 inches in the coastal plain, and 7 to 12 inches in the southern coastal area ranging up to 25 inches at Elizabeth City.
one of the biggest snowstorms that eastern North Carolina has ever seen. Winds caused snow drifts up to 8 feet.

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu

It was dubbed the ‘Snowstorm of the Century’ and it happened in early March of 1980.*
During the afternoon and evening of March 2, 1980, North Carolina experienced a major winter storm. Heavy snow and blustery conditions combined to reach almost blizzard conditions. The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm that contains large amounts of snow or blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 MPH and visibility down to less than a quarter of a mile for at least 3 hours.
https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview#:~:text=The precipitation in Eastern North Carolina started as,offshore to 999 mb by 00Z March 3.



Heavy Snow, Blizzard
https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/w...1&end_year=2022&event[]=snow&event[]=ice&pg=3

March 24~25th, 1983
An unusually late winter storm moved through the state producing heavy snow and gale-force winds. Also uncommon was the area of heaviest snow, which extended from the Southern and central Piedmont into the entire coastal area. Snowfall started around dawn near Charlotte and quickly moved northeast.
Snowfall amounts include: Greensboro Trace, Asheville 1", Raleigh-Durham 3", Charlotte 10", Fayetteville 9", Greenville 5", Clinton 8", Elizabeth City 7" and Wilmington 5".

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

products.climate.ncsu.edu products.climate.ncsu.edu



EDIT: How could I forget? just for @Avalanche , 30 years ago, this Month.. What We couldn't see nor Forecast.. ;)
March 12th~14th

The Massive North Carolina Blizzard Of March 1993 Will Never Be Forgotten​

Called ‘the storm of the century,’ those who lived through the record-breaking snowfall of 1993 still talk about it to this day. The strangest part about this snow is that it didn’t occur during your normal snowfall months; it created catastrophe in the middle of March. Just as students at UNC Asheville were preparing for spring break they woke up to over two feet of snow. Throughout the southeast, the storm brought devastation to more than just the Tar Heel State, and although it’s not the largest blizzard in North Carolina history, it still holds records to this day.

https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/north-carolina/1993-snow-storm-nc/

On This Day: The 1993 Storm of the Century

In March 1993, the Storm of the Century struck the U.S. East Coast, claiming more than 270 lives and causing billions of dollars in damage.
www.ncei.noaa.gov www.ncei.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
Great research right there.
 
I'm working on a new AI model using deep ML methods to forecast tornadoes on a high resolution scale. Originally I was going for a lower resolution SPC-like/Nadocast-like system, but figured it'd be more fruitful and potentially save more lives if it were higher resolution and focused on the 12-36hrs before the tornado. It is trained, tested, and fed forecasts by the MMFS-superres model. Since it is all in-house, the AI has access to many advanced variables not typically available for models, such as microphysics properties, leveled wind components in the PBL, SRH/UDHEL within the PBL, and more. The first test forecast I did was on Jan 12, 2023 and it gave a hell of a forecast, especially considering it's young age. I'm hoping to have it in a really good spot by late march into April. Overall very optimistic about this, especially given how well the first full test forecast did.

1677147117388.png
 
bouncycorn said:
I'm working on a new AI model using deep ML methods to forecast tornadoes on a high resolution scale. Originally I was going for a lower resolution SPC-like/Nadocast-like system, but figured it'd be more fruitful and potentially save more lives if it were higher resolution and focused on the 12-36hrs before the tornado. It is trained, tested, and fed forecasts by the MMFS-superres model. Since it is all in-house, the AI has access to many advanced variables not typically available for models, such as microphysics properties, leveled wind components in the PBL, SRH/UDHEL within the PBL, and more. The first test forecast I did was on Jan 12, 2023 and it gave a hell of a forecast, especially considering it's young age. I'm hoping to have it in a really good spot by late march into April. Overall very optimistic about this, especially given how well the first full test forecast did.

View attachment 133517
Click to expand...
It's a funny coincidence but I'm also looking into ML with my senior project for CS. While I'm no met major, I want to see how possible it is to nowcast things like strong wind, hail, and tornadoes in advance (hopefully up to an hour) at a high resolution as well pulling from live radar imagery. If successful I'd hope with sufficient training and time it be capable of giving a more precise idea where those hazards would occur. While it is quite ambitious and I am working alone and have yet to reach the ML aspect of it, it is a goal of both some research into ML's capabilities and possibly contributing to forecast improvement on the more technical methods.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's a funny coincidence but I'm also looking into ML with my senior project for CS. While I'm no met major, I want to see how possible it is to nowcast things like strong wind, hail, and tornadoes in advance (hopefully up to an hour) at a high resolution as well pulling from live radar imagery. If successful I'd hope with sufficient training and time it be capable of giving a more precise idea where those hazards would occur. While it is quite ambitious and I am working alone and have yet to reach the ML aspect of it, it is a goal of both some research into ML's capabilities and possibly contributing to forecast improvement on the more technical methods.
Click to expand...
Great goals! While I don’t think that ML-only is the future of weather/severe wx/tornado forecasting, I think it could play a big part in interpretation of physical cored models.

If you want, you can send me a message on here and talk about your ideas for your project. I might be able to help you with some things and you may be able to teach me some things.
 
bouncycorn said:
I'm working on a new AI model using deep ML methods to forecast tornadoes on a high resolution scale. Originally I was going for a lower resolution SPC-like/Nadocast-like system, but figured it'd be more fruitful and potentially save more lives if it were higher resolution and focused on the 12-36hrs before the tornado. It is trained, tested, and fed forecasts by the MMFS-superres model. Since it is all in-house, the AI has access to many advanced variables not typically available for models, such as microphysics properties, leveled wind components in the PBL, SRH/UDHEL within the PBL, and more. The first test forecast I did was on Jan 12, 2023 and it gave a hell of a forecast, especially considering it's young age. I'm hoping to have it in a really good spot by late march into April. Overall very optimistic about this, especially given how well the first full test forecast did.

View attachment 133517
Click to expand...
Sweet! Keep us posted and reminded of this as it matures.
 
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