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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

Arcc said:
Big time rule of thumb for future events, even without other factors considered when low level lapse rates are around 5.5C during peak heating and 0-3km cape is around 30, there is good chance of a very marginal event in the southeast.
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Lots of areas in central MS had >100 0-3km CAPE. IMO It's one of the most overrated parameters when it comes to tornado forecasting.
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Based on my research of SE tornado events over the last 7 years, 0-3km CAPE has very little correlation with tornado vs non-tornado events, and very little correlation with tornado strength. In fact, it has negative correlation with supercell convective mode vs linear or multi-cellular.

Here's some of the results- CC W/ TOR column is correlation with tornado vs non-tornado events.
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bouncycorn said:
Lots of areas in central MS had >100 0-3km CAPE. IMO It's one of the most overrated parameters when it comes to tornado forecasting.
View attachment 133417

Based on my research of SE tornado events over the last 7 years, 0-3km CAPE has very little correlation with tornado vs non-tornado events, and very little correlation with tornado strength. In fact, it has negative correlation with supercell convective mode vs linear or multi-cellular.

Here's some of the results- CC W/ TOR column is correlation with tornado vs non-tornado events.
View attachment 133416
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Interesting.

I know years ago(actually about two decades now that I think about it) when Fred Gossage and I used to talk. I remember him saying there was a pretty good connection between 0-3km Cape and tornadoes in the SE, especially in winter time. Now that may have changed since with more data though as I’m definitely not current with the new research.
 
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accu35 said:
I found a place in Newport TN close to my job location. When I move I’ll change my location on the board here.
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Thats going to be a much better spot for snow I’m assuming then wherever you are now. I wish I was closer to the mountains for the years we don’t see as much snow here. You will be a stones throw away from those good mountain snows throughout each winter.
 
Yall cold weenies are killing me. You act like it's never going to snow or be cold again... it's not like we didn't witness record cold in Texas in 2021, or record cold in the Carolinas in 2018, or 2015, or 2014... or the dec 2018 snow.... or the cold find dec 2022.....yall have such short-term memories sometimes. One warm January-Feb ( mind you.... at least for jan it wasn't even top 5 warm..) and yall think it's over and will never be cold again. lmao.
 
LickWx said:
Yall cold weenies are killing me. You act like it's never going to snow or be cold again... it's not like we didn't witness record cold in Texas in 2021, or record cold in the Carolinas in 2018, or 2015, or 2014... or the dec 2018 snow.... or the cold find dec 2022.....yall have such short-term memories sometimes. One warm January-Feb ( mind you.... at least for jan it wasn't even top 5 warm..) and yall think it's over and will never be cold again. lmao.
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There has been a decades long trend towards warmer weather in the southeast and the debate as to its cause is one I won’t broach here.

Of course it will snow again in the south but it will be a rarity. The unfavorable MJO progressions and the lessening impact of ENSO may be another factor which I will leave to the professionals and better educated to decipher. But if that’s the case it’s a game changer in how predictable or unpredictable winter weather might be in the south.


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LickWx said:
Yall cold weenies are killing me. You act like it's never going to snow or be cold again... it's not like we didn't witness record cold in Texas in 2021, or record cold in the Carolinas in 2018, or 2015, or 2014... or the dec 2018 snow.... or the cold find dec 2022.....yall have such short-term memories sometimes. One warm January-Feb ( mind you.... at least for jan it wasn't even top 5 warm..) and yall think it's over and will never be cold again. lmao.
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It better not get cold again. The power companies can't even handle temps in the teens and 20s anymore.
 
Rain Cold said:
It better not get cold again. The power companies can't even handle temps in the teens and 20s anymore.
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You’re right. Society better be praying for average temperatures to continue rising. If by the off chance we hit a mini ice age we’d be in big trouble energy wise.
 
Avalanche said:
Yes, we better have some generators if we are going to stay warm and power our EVs as well.
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We couldn’t even keep enough peressure on the gas lines to run home standby generators during the Christmas cold snap. Half our town lost pressure and pilot lights had to be re-lit. A total cluster
 
LickWx said:
Yall cold weenies are killing me. You act like it's never going to snow or be cold again... it's not like we didn't witness record cold in Texas in 2021, or record cold in the Carolinas in 2018, or 2015, or 2014... or the dec 2018 snow.... or the cold find dec 2022.....yall have such short-term memories sometimes. One warm January-Feb ( mind you.... at least for jan it wasn't even top 5 warm..) and yall think it's over and will never be cold again. lmao.
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And you heat wennies are killing me. You act like we live in the Dakotas and its unbearable cold for half the year. WE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A WINTER THIS YEAR and you guys have been pulling for record heat in February. Yeah we had a cold few days or so in past years but overall we can't even get seasonable weather in the winter, and the past 2-3 have been very paltry overall.

Just for perspective, since 12/28 GSP has only had 11 days below our readjusted averages, with the most below day only -8. The coldest high of the 2 main winter months has been a frigid 42.

For CLT there have only been 9 days below average with the coldest high of 44.

Even AVL has only had 8 days below average with the coldest high being 39.

I'd say you heat weennies have had plenty of fun this year, more than making up for 3-4 days of torture in Dec.
 
Legit am a little concerned what I’m going to be skiing in on Friday. Supposed to be 70 at Sugar on Thursday. Friday is only in the 40s, but Thursday is going to be a massacre.
 
superjames1992 said:
Legit am a little concerned what I’m going to be skiing in on Friday. Supposed to be 70 at Sugar on Thursday. Friday is only in the 40s, but Thursday is going to be a massacre.
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Slush. And probably a lot of visible mud just under it

It’ll be fun either way
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Slush. And probably a lot of visible mud just under it

It’ll be fun either way
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Yeah, I just hope they have some decent runs open still. Hopefully it chases most people away so it’ll not be packed. I’d rather have crappy conditions and wide open slopes than great conditions and packed lift lines, anyways.

I skied up on Winterplace back in the late 2000s in March when it was in the 60s and it wasn’t bad from what I remember, so I’ll hold out hope.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
And you heat wennies are killing me. You act like we live in the Dakotas and its unbearable cold for half the year. WE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A WINTER THIS YEAR and you guys have been pulling for record heat in February. Yeah we had a cold few days or so in past years but overall we can't even get seasonable weather in the winter, and the past 2-3 have been very paltry overall.

Just for perspective, since 12/28 GSP has only had 11 days below our readjusted averages, with the most below day only -8. The coldest high of the 2 main winter months has been a frigid 42.

For CLT there have only been 9 days below average with the coldest high of 44.

Even AVL has only had 8 days below average with the coldest high being 39.

I'd say you heat weennies have had plenty of fun this year, more than making up for 3-4 days of torture in Dec.
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Some of us love to see something wintery but if that ain’t happening we just prefer it to be warm and sunny.


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The NWS has lowered my high from 85 to 83 on Thursday, that’s certainly extremely warm for this time of the year. However, it’s not the shattering all time warmest February heat wave ever (like some were initially doom forecasting last week) at least for the southern half of Georgia.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
And you heat wennies are killing me. You act like we live in the Dakotas and its unbearable cold for half the year. WE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A WINTER THIS YEAR and you guys have been pulling for record heat in February. Yeah we had a cold few days or so in past years but overall we can't even get seasonable weather in the winter, and the past 2-3 have been very paltry overall.

Just for perspective, since 12/28 GSP has only had 11 days below our readjusted averages, with the most below day only -8. The coldest high of the 2 main winter months has been a frigid 42.

For CLT there have only been 9 days below average with the coldest high of 44.

Even AVL has only had 8 days below average with the coldest high being 39.

I'd say you heat weennies have had plenty of fun this year, more than making up for 3-4 days of torture in Dec.
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I'm with you brother. I'll go to my grave a popsicle before I melt. Yeah it's been a joke around here if anyone thinks it's been cold this winter. The only real cold I seen was the three days at Christmas and then poof it was gone with the wind.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
And you heat wennies are killing me. You act like we live in the Dakotas and its unbearable cold for half the year. WE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A WINTER THIS YEAR and you guys have been pulling for record heat in February. Yeah we had a cold few days or so in past years but overall we can't even get seasonable weather in the winter, and the past 2-3 have been very paltry overall.

Just for perspective, since 12/28 GSP has only had 11 days below our readjusted averages, with the most below day only -8. The coldest high of the 2 main winter months has been a frigid 42.

For CLT there have only been 9 days below average with the coldest high of 44.

Even AVL has only had 8 days below average with the coldest high being 39.

I'd say you heat weennies have had plenty of fun this year, more than making up for 3-4 days of torture in Dec.
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Remind me again when pulling for a certain weather event made that weather event more probable …. It was warm, it’s been warm before , in fact it’s been even warmer before. Guess what, still had cold winters after.
 
Shawn said:
All the wishing for cold/snow mid-March... I don't want to see complaints at your grocery prices if it happens.
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I would say the ground crops (corn, wheat, etc.) will be fine. Farmers can wait to plant those. But the fruit will most likely suffer. My peaches/apples/pears haven't bloomed out yet but they're not far off.
 
FallsLake said:
I would say the ground crops (corn, wheat, etc.) will be fine. Farmers can wait to plant those. But the fruit will most likely suffer. My peaches/apples/pears haven't bloomed out yet but they're not far off.
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I don’t know how anyone grows peaches apples or pears down here. Better off growing figs or something. Never have to worry with those .
 
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