• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Mega March 2023

The intriguing thing is where the storm track sets up as the -NAO and -PNA duke it out. Feast or famine for I-95 snow lovers.

GFS really cranking a -NAO as we get into early March. But, just when you think the ridge is getting subdued it cranks back up even stronger. It reminds me of the disconnect we had last year between the MJO and how the indices manifest. Even in the cold phases we did not get cold at times in the south. Different story for the northeast, they have some serious cold coming their way if the 0z GFS is to be believed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Whether you like it or not cold will come if these looks continue .. we will suffer through more heat and above average temps until maybe the 2nd week of march .. but when that trough out west breaks down and the -NAO ridge builds in and retrogrades west enough.. fun things will happen underneath. Enjoy the warmth now cause it will be cold again. 728C28E0-7780-4E12-9F1F-5F45CDAFAEAC.jpegA83501F5-DDD8-4F5B-999D-CEAF6AFC7CB5.jpegCFE4AF70-B034-4CAA-9CE7-7630875D1F71.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Whether you like it or not cold will come if these looks continue .. we will suffer through more heat and above average temps until maybe the 2nd week of march .. but when that trough out west breaks down and the -NAO ridge builds in and retrogrades west enough.. fun things will happen underneath. Enjoy the warmth now cause it will be cold again. View attachment 133449View attachment 133450View attachment 133451
Click to expand...
It might get cool even cold again, but I doubt we'll be having a lot of fun in it.
 
Rain Cold said:
It might get cool even cold again, but I doubt we'll be having a lot of fun in it.
Click to expand...
Airmasses are moderating considerably. We will likely get some below average temps through March, but I think the winter is all but done now. We just don't have the cold available to work with. I expect 40 degree rains and for it to still have a winter feel through March, but I highly doubt we are getting anything frozen.
 
My thoughts are that by the time the trough out west shifts east (likely 3/10 or later), we will need exceptional cold outside the mountains to have a good winter storm. We'll see.
TW
 
Tarheelwx said:
My thoughts are that by the time the trough out west shifts east (likely 3/10 or later), we will need exceptional cold outside the mountains to have a good winter storm. We'll see.
TW
Click to expand...
You need either an exceptionally cold air mass… which I just don’t see happening or you need a well timed ULL which is typically how you get snow outside the mountains in the southeast after 3/1. If I had to guess, I think we will see temperatures get back to below average as this blocking up top and -NAO takes hold in the next 10 days or so, but I just don’t think there’s cold enough air to work with to make something happen so late in season… maybe if the mid Atlantic and northeast could actually get a decent snowstorm and put some snow pack, something could get well timed right after to give northern areas of the southeast a chance
 
Past few runs on the gfs and gefs has been looking very interesting
 
GFS more transient with the cold and the ridge builds back. Maybe the ridge gets beat down at the end of the run but who knows how that pans out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
GFS more transient with the cold and the ridge builds back. Maybe the ridge gets beat down at the end of the run but who knows how that pans out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It's still hard to buy a long duration cold event with the pacific still in the toilet. The cmc gets cold but it rapidly pulls the nao west and traps the trough under the block. Possible? Sure. Likely? No. If you are looking for any long duration BN weather you have to wait until the nao retrograde well west and looking at the ensembles that still a way away

You can see centered around D10 how the gefs pulls the trough through but then the trough in the PNW starts to deepen and back west and the STR starts pushing north, can't do much more here than a 1-3 day slightly BN cold shot before 70s and 80s are knocking at the door againgfs-ens_z500a_us_fh192-294.gif
 
Last edited:
1677931200-RoMV84rrP0w.png

You'll get your cold albeit transient, but if the Euro continued we were fixing to have a huge dump out west again so rinse and repeat. At least we have the -NAO to keep from getting this week part 2 more than likely. But if anyone is expecting winter weather, I'd damper those expectations considerably. The Pacific is just too wrecked to think we are going to get anything other than CAD right now at best.
 
superjames1992 said:
And that was a catastrophic winter up to that point, too. You never know!
Click to expand...
It was in the high 70's Low 80's for DAYS up till, that Early afternoon.. (Here in SENC)..
Going from (Bolivia, NC to Wilmington, It was snowing when I left Bolivia, & then high 70's arriving in ILM.. (distance of roughly 30 miles).
With Hurricane force winds in between.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top