At this point we need to start considering April a winter month
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
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JHS
Member
CAD will keep Raleigh from being the warmest in winter. Wilmington will get that honor. There will be many days when it is 50-55 in Raleigh, while it is 65-70 down on the southeast coast of NC.If this summer is any indication, RDU will be the warmest place in the state of NC this winter. Greensboro will be pouring snow at 29 while RDU is recording 45 with heavy rain.
The last 3 days’ SOIs have been sub -25. Despite them now bottoming out and about to rise back up, the July complete month might end up slightly negative.
What’s been driving the recent strong -SOI days have been very high Darwin SLPs. For those who don’t follow the SOI closely, a developing La Niña favors +SOIs in late spring and especially summer+. AN Tahiti SLP and BN Darwin SLP correlates to +SOI.
But recent Darwin SLPs have been anything but low. On the contrary, we just had 2 days of 1017.55+ with today in highly rarified territory at 1017.85. How rare is 1017.85?
Since 1991 and prior to today, there had been only 4 days with Darwin SLP of 1017.85+:
1018.35: June 22, 2004
1017.90: July 25, 2023
1017.90: Aug 5, 2023
1017.85: Aug 12, 1994
Note that all of these other 4 1017.85+ Darwin days were during an incoming or already existent 1st year El Niño. That’s far from the case now.
Since 1991 there’s been only one day during a year with a first year Niña immediately following a Nino that had a Darwin SLP >1017 mb: the 1017.15 mb of Aug 12, 1995.
For Niña following Nino, highest daily Darwin SLP:
1995: 1017.15
1998: 1015.35
2005: 1016.00
2007: 1016.00
2010: 1014.65
2016: 1015.25
What’s been driving the recent strong -SOI days have been very high Darwin SLPs. For those who don’t follow the SOI closely, a developing La Niña favors +SOIs in late spring and especially summer+. AN Tahiti SLP and BN Darwin SLP correlates to +SOI.
But recent Darwin SLPs have been anything but low. On the contrary, we just had 2 days of 1017.55+ with today in highly rarified territory at 1017.85. How rare is 1017.85?
Since 1991 and prior to today, there had been only 4 days with Darwin SLP of 1017.85+:
1018.35: June 22, 2004
1017.90: July 25, 2023
1017.90: Aug 5, 2023
1017.85: Aug 12, 1994
Note that all of these other 4 1017.85+ Darwin days were during an incoming or already existent 1st year El Niño. That’s far from the case now.
Since 1991 there’s been only one day during a year with a first year Niña immediately following a Nino that had a Darwin SLP >1017 mb: the 1017.15 mb of Aug 12, 1995.
For Niña following Nino, highest daily Darwin SLP:
1995: 1017.15
1998: 1015.35
2005: 1016.00
2007: 1016.00
2010: 1014.65
2016: 1015.25
lexxnchloe
Member
Im throwing in the towel for cane season but here is a ray of hope for winter, especially the mountains
accu35
Member
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Good, no more 384 runs?
lexxnchloe
Member
MANY more if i need to pick up the towel
MichaelJ
Member
Gonna be a rainy (for however much precip we can squeeze out with the storm tack to the west and north), warm winter I am thinking. West QBO's, high solar and La Nina together usually means the trough in the NW and ridge in the SE extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously there are exceptions to this but they are rare
JHS
Member
Probably a rough severe season next spring from Texas and the lower Mississippi valley to the Great Lakes.
I agree. The only thing I like is there will/should be cold air in the NW part of the US. We just need the predominant la nina pattern to relax a few times. Get a strong high to our north to setup a good CAD. I always think/dream about 1996 when facing an incoming la nina.
Very true… heck look even at January 2022… I had an inch or more of snowfall 3 straight weekends
I may have it mentioned on my gravestone how bad that map is.
Not your fault obviously but it drives me crazy!
Brent
Member
Just like this from our local met... what can possibly go wrong...
Brent
Member
I will say after last year I'm not believing any predictions
jeremyt
Member
That’s the same forecast every year it seems. I’ve not seen a flake in 2-3 years so once again, it can’t get worse!
Brent
Member
Like I said after that disgrace of last winter I'm not believing anything but I agree i don't see how it can possibly get any worse either. I mean we nearly hit 90 in February we didn't even beat it til April I think... March never hit 80 but it was too late to matter at that point
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1. I’ll believe mild over cold forecasts though.
2. Most of these amateur forecasts are near worthless as they’re almost always cold wherever the forecaster lives, which is usually E US or Midwest.
I love the “battle zone” that many of these forecasts have every year in the upper SE. Like what does that even mean?
Brent
Member
I mean climo here would say we're due for a good winter but who knows(I've gone back into climo and Tulsa has had back to back bad winters but never three in a row)...
And yeah nobody wants to see a warm forecast it doesn't get the likes...
And the battle zone yeah. I guarantee I'll be in it
I mean climo here would say we're due for a good winter but who knows(I've gone back into climo and Tulsa has had back to back bad winters but never three in a row)...
And yeah nobody wants to see a warm forecast it doesn't get the likes...
And the battle zone yeah. I guarantee I'll be in it
You’ll have a much better chance than me in a strong -PDO/La Niña. Here in the deep SE, I’m fully expecting another mild winter. But winter is still my favorite season, regardless.