JHS
Member
I forgot about that one. We missed it in NC and upstate SC. Now that you bring it up, I think I remember Columbia SC getting around 2-4 out of it. Parts of AL and Miss got snow that day too, I think.
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I got 6” in Carrollton in 1992
Just out of curiosity, what are you seeing that makes ‘13-14 a viable analog. Despite that being a neutral ENSO and us going into a La Niña, that winter was set up by the Pacific basically being perfect for 95% of the time from November to March. I also remember the PV really got pushed far south for long stretches which aided in the abundance of snow pack that helped set up that great period from late January to early March
Brent
Member
I'm not sure what to think about this winter tbh but I'm definitely packing it with snowy trips early on just in case. Not gonna wait around til February like I did this year
Still so salty about wasting that Pamela Anderson bomb pattern away. That was the closest shot we had to a mauler in years
At this point for me I'm usually casting a wide net for analogs, 2013 falls into the good SST similar enso bucket. It may fall off through the fall as factors become more visible and change. The biggest thing about 13 was the weak spv that got sent into north america in November then was kind of made into a peanut shape with a lobe over canada in Jan and feb. Given the recent spv trends that right there might kill it as an analog more that other factors
Brent
Member
Oh yeah I'll probably never get over last winter... that's one reason I'm going hard on trip plans
severestorm
Member
Things are shaping up well in the Northern Atlantic for this winter
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
I think that if we see cold at all, it will be driven by the epo. Last winter as we know, winter was early and never came back.Very atypical of a niño. Most niños are back loaded, but the niño acted probably more like a niña last winter, which are front loaded.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
I was happy to get a 5.5 to 6in snow mid Jan in 15 degree temps, which took a week to melt
Brent
Member
Yeah we went from 6-10 inches 3 days out to an inch here. No better than Christmas 2022 and that was the only storm we were even cold enough for the entire winter. Not to mention the second year in a row we had a snow hole with a Winter Storm Warning. It was beyond bad. I never want to repeat that again
Yeah I know at least we had snow but when you average 9 inches and two years in a row are like that
Just move to Kansas.
Brent
Member
That was another thing that drove me crazy because literally 3 hours up the road had 20 inches of snow
Will the -NAO this winter trap another low around the Great Lakes is the question
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
And sometimes the US/Mexico border because the cold seems to dump out west more.
That wasn't the case if you were in TN last winter where they had plenty of snow. The way the cold came in was our issue last winter. We need more CAD to have a chance.
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
I don't think...
SnowNiner
Member
Get your squeegee, I mean your shovel ready.
1. Per this that has daily PDOs, it is still a very strong -PDO:
2. That’s near record warm water in the middle latitudes of the Atlantic. There’s a lot of debate but I’m suspecting that is one of the factors keeping the MDR of the tropics quiet right now vs climo and expectations. Regardless, the Euro Weeklies are now hinting at it getting much more active late in Sept. fwiw. We’ll see.
SnowNiner
Member
After February and March of last year, I’m quite confident in my assessment that the Euro Weeklies have as much value as old baby diapers. Never again #neverforget.
Lol. Indeed, they were poor during parts of last winter in falsely calling for cold. But to their credit they have been predicting the current quiet tropics period for a couple of weeks.
tractor girl
Member
random weather person on yt. At least he got the southern states right. 
NoSnowATL
Member
No battle zone. sad
It looks like he took last year and made himself a map.
Brent
Member
Mega march is going to be epic
I had a few moments in the past 30 days where I thought we were going to flip the pdo or at least go neutral and all the warm winter forecasts were going to not look so hot. Then this happened
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
I think if the niña develops and it's east based, we should have a colder winter imo. Similar to 21-22 winter. December was a blowtorch but after that, it got more interesting. A -pdo isn't good, but a -epo would help if we can get one
I haven't seen a lot of evidence lately that enso matters at all. It used to, but it seems like it doesn't matter much over the last few years.
Brent
Member
La Nina has been better here but I'm still so irritated about last winter I think I'll believe it when I see it... like it's gonna take a lot for me to forget what a joke it was tbh
I haven't seen a lot of evidence lately that anything that used to give us more snow here matters anymore.
Maybe a la nina is better than anything else. At least we'll have cold air to our NW. If we can get some blocking (+PNA, -NAO,..) we might be able to tap into the cold (CAD) and score a storm. But it'll be difficult. The storm track is probably going to run up the apps for most storms. I think Memphis will do good again this year.
I'm moving to Beech Mountain next week after buying a condo, so this will be my first winter in the high country. I hope I will see some decent snow for my first winter. I've lived at the coast (er.....beach) for the past 3 years and don't think I've seen one flake fly.