Well we definitely have a chance at a decent winter next year. Maybe by Nov he will be on full torch.
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Well we definitely have a chance at a decent winter next year. Maybe by Nov he will be on full torch.
lexxnchloe
Member
Looks like winter 2023/24 will end up 4 degrees above normal at Raleigh. Dec +4.6 Jan +3.2 and Feb +3.9 with a few well above normal days ahead.
11-12 70-71 99-00 72-73 good 12-13 75-76 98-99 not good 16-17 82-83 ok
It'll be fun to start narrowing these down through the year
It'll be fun to start narrowing these down through the year
Itryatgolf
Member
This is my opinion. If the niña is central based (esp stronger one) or cooler water in central pacific, probably game over for most. If niña is east based, regardless of strength, or around Peru, we have decent chances at cold shots. I'm curious how the sst distribution was for 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23? Anyone know or have a map to post?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
SE ridge galore
tennessee storm
Member
Wow. Jb even going warm …
That is honestly like early Christmas. If he goes cold between now and then, I’m logging out after fall severe season is over and not signing in until next March.
If this year tells you anything, it says no matter the state of el nino or la nina, no one knows what is going to happen. Sure, it is fun to speculate, etc, but I guarantee there will be several warm periods and several cold periods. If moisture is around during a cold period, it could mean winter weather. That's all we know at this point and probably won't know any better in Nov of 2024.
I agree with not being able to tell how much snow. One cold week can make a winter if there is moisture. However I will bet the farm it's going to be another above average winter temp wise. Looking at the current base state of the globe there are no signs anything is changing. We haven't had a below average winter as a whole in 10 years next year. So it's reasonable to expect the same.
Definitely gotta bet the streak on that. Like you said though, it only takes a week or two. 2021-22 still ended up above average temp wise but the last three weekends in January all gave me at least 1” of snow.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
We seem to have the worst winters when we are above 1degree c in el nino, or below one degree c in la nina in Alabama. This year was +2 for NDJ. I saw somewhere , can't find it now, but there was a forecast of -9 c avg for NDJ. If that materializes, that is barely in the range that produces our best cold and snow around Birmingham.
Something to keep in mind before putting all the chips in assuming the enso state rules all.
Prestige Worldwide
Member
Shocker- incoming torch next winter 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
The GFS and other models can’t get 7 day temps right! So the NAMASTE model fro next winter, will probably be dead on!
Another thing, if the model was ran recently, it would still be picking up on the El Niño background state, which is exactly how the map here looks!
Another thing, if the model was ran recently, it would still be picking up on the El Niño background state, which is exactly how the map here looks!
lexxnchloe
Member
Maybe a susperstorm will produce its own cold air.
Let be fair. Even when things are looking good we fail. So when things are looking bad surely we will succeed.
This might be on the cool side
lexxnchloe
Member
The good news is forecasts can only get cooler from here right? right?
Yes to both questions.
The bright side of it all is I can’t see it being an worse than the past 2 years!
This looks like a nina pattern tbh, but a torch heavy one
iGRXY
Member
At best these models don't have a clue what will happen next week let alone 6-9 months from now and we end up with an okay winter. At worst we end up with an extended 5 months of fall with upper 50's to low 70's starting in October. Either way we win.
Brent
Member
That's what I said last year
Models have been right about winter torching, but wrong about BN winters the last decade. Torch ? Book it. La Niña will give us a favorable window earlier more then likely, like it has done the last several years, then the door shuts February
Yep, the cold will be to our NW. But it will be hard to get it east of the apps. Memphis may do good again this year.
Wash rinse repeate. BN winters are a thing of the past until whatever has been responsible for all of this changes.
Brent
Member
Even out here February was so warm last winter it destroyed whatever cold anomaly the week in January had... And we had a stretch below freezing then
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Next winter will feature a cold outbreak somewhere West of the Apps, with a couple days here and there East of them that actually feel like winter.
The rest of the period will be well above average with only one or two fronts getting non mountain locations into the teens for lows. There will be a couple of possible "snow" possibilities to track but they will be too marginal for most.
AVL will end it's snow drought, but it won't be a good season. GSP and CLT might get a tiny accumulation somewhere down the line but it's going to be a struggle all season. Feb will continue to be a complete Spring month and we'll see another early leaf out.
In short... don't fall for the inevitable "cold and snowy " predictions that will be put out everywhere; this is going to be another tough one.
The rest of the period will be well above average with only one or two fronts getting non mountain locations into the teens for lows. There will be a couple of possible "snow" possibilities to track but they will be too marginal for most.
AVL will end it's snow drought, but it won't be a good season. GSP and CLT might get a tiny accumulation somewhere down the line but it's going to be a struggle all season. Feb will continue to be a complete Spring month and we'll see another early leaf out.
In short... don't fall for the inevitable "cold and snowy " predictions that will be put out everywhere; this is going to be another tough one.
lexxnchloe
Member
We had a hot snowless winter with el nino, its bound to be the opposite with la nina, right?
Lol cfs 
lexxnchloe
Member
Prestige Worldwide
Member
BHS1975
Member
At least this is believable. ++++++++++++AO
If this summer is any indication, RDU will be the warmest place in the state of NC this winter. Greensboro will be pouring snow at 29 while RDU is recording 45 with heavy rain. 
