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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

SD said:
11-12 70-71 99-00 72-73 good 12-13 75-76 98-99 not good 16-17 82-83 ok

It'll be fun to start narrowing these down through the year
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This is my opinion. If the niña is central based (esp stronger one) or cooler water in central pacific, probably game over for most. If niña is east based, regardless of strength, or around Peru, we have decent chances at cold shots. I'm curious how the sst distribution was for 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23? Anyone know or have a map to post?
 
If this year tells you anything, it says no matter the state of el nino or la nina, no one knows what is going to happen. Sure, it is fun to speculate, etc, but I guarantee there will be several warm periods and several cold periods. If moisture is around during a cold period, it could mean winter weather. That's all we know at this point and probably won't know any better in Nov of 2024.
 
WxGSO said:
If this year tells you anything, it says no matter the state of el nino or la nina, no one knows what is going to happen. Sure, it is fun to speculate, etc, but I guarantee there will be several warm periods and several cold periods. If moisture is around during a cold period, it could mean winter weather. That's all we know at this point and probably won't know any better in Nov of 2024.
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I agree with not being able to tell how much snow. One cold week can make a winter if there is moisture. However I will bet the farm it's going to be another above average winter temp wise. Looking at the current base state of the globe there are no signs anything is changing. We haven't had a below average winter as a whole in 10 years next year. So it's reasonable to expect the same.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I agree with not being able to tell how much snow. One cold week can make a winter if there is moisture. However I will bet the farm it's going to be another above average winter temp wise. Looking at the current base state of the globe there are no signs anything is changing. We haven't had a below average winter as a whole in 10 years next year. So it's reasonable to expect the same.
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Definitely gotta bet the streak on that. Like you said though, it only takes a week or two. 2021-22 still ended up above average temp wise but the last three weekends in January all gave me at least 1” of snow.
 
We seem to have the worst winters when we are above 1degree c in el nino, or below one degree c in la nina in Alabama. This year was +2 for NDJ. I saw somewhere , can't find it now, but there was a forecast of -9 c avg for NDJ. If that materializes, that is barely in the range that produces our best cold and snow around Birmingham.
 
Something to keep in mind before putting all the chips in assuming the enso state rules all.
 
The GFS and other models can’t get 7 day temps right! So the NAMASTE model fro next winter, will probably be dead on!
Another thing, if the model was ran recently, it would still be picking up on the El Niño background state, which is exactly how the map here looks!
 
I’m just talking about my specific area because I don’t know about everywhere else, but can I really go 3 years in a row without a trace of snow? Is that a record?
 
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