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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

superjames1992 said:
If this summer is any indication, RDU will be the warmest place in the state of NC this winter. Greensboro will be pouring snow at 29 while RDU is recording 45 with heavy rain. 💀
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CAD will keep Raleigh from being the warmest in winter. Wilmington will get that honor. There will be many days when it is 50-55 in Raleigh, while it is 65-70 down on the southeast coast of NC.
 
The last 3 days’ SOIs have been sub -25. Despite them now bottoming out and about to rise back up, the July complete month might end up slightly negative.
What’s been driving the recent strong -SOI days have been very high Darwin SLPs. For those who don’t follow the SOI closely, a developing La Niña favors +SOIs in late spring and especially summer+. AN Tahiti SLP and BN Darwin SLP correlates to +SOI.

But recent Darwin SLPs have been anything but low. On the contrary, we just had 2 days of 1017.55+ with today in highly rarified territory at 1017.85. How rare is 1017.85?

Since 1991 and prior to today, there had been only 4 days with Darwin SLP of 1017.85+:
1018.35: June 22, 2004
1017.90: July 25, 2023
1017.90: Aug 5, 2023
1017.85: Aug 12, 1994

Note that all of these other 4 1017.85+ Darwin days were during an incoming or already existent 1st year El Niño. That’s far from the case now.

Since 1991 there’s been only one day during a year with a first year Niña immediately following a Nino that had a Darwin SLP >1017 mb: the 1017.15 mb of Aug 12, 1995.


For Niña following Nino, highest daily Darwin SLP:

1995: 1017.15
1998: 1015.35
2005: 1016.00
2007: 1016.00
2010: 1014.65
2016: 1015.25
 
Gonna be a rainy (for however much precip we can squeeze out with the storm tack to the west and north), warm winter I am thinking. West QBO's, high solar and La Nina together usually means the trough in the NW and ridge in the SE extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously there are exceptions to this but they are rare
 
MichaelJ said:
Gonna be a rainy (for however much precip we can squeeze out with the storm tack to the west and north), warm winter I am thinking. West QBO's, high solar and La Nina together usually means the trough in the NW and ridge in the SE extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously there are exceptions to this but they are rare
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Probably a rough severe season next spring from Texas and the lower Mississippi valley to the Great Lakes.
 
MichaelJ said:
Gonna be a rainy (for however much precip we can squeeze out with the storm tack to the west and north), warm winter I am thinking. West QBO's, high solar and La Nina together usually means the trough in the NW and ridge in the SE extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously there are exceptions to this but they are rare
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I agree. The only thing I like is there will/should be cold air in the NW part of the US. We just need the predominant la nina pattern to relax a few times. Get a strong high to our north to setup a good CAD. I always think/dream about 1996 when facing an incoming la nina.

1722016017522.png
 
FallsLake said:
I agree. The only thing I like is there will/should be cold air in the NW part of the US. We just need the predominant la nina pattern to relax a few times. Get a strong high to our north to setup a good CAD. I always think/dream about 1996 when facing an incoming la nina.

View attachment 148830
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Very true… heck look even at January 2022… I had an inch or more of snowfall 3 straight weekends
 
FallsLake said:
I agree. The only thing I like is there will/should be cold air in the NW part of the US. We just need the predominant la nina pattern to relax a few times. Get a strong high to our north to setup a good CAD. I always think/dream about 1996 when facing an incoming la nina.

View attachment 148830
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I may have it mentioned on my gravestone how bad that map is.

Not your fault obviously but it drives me crazy!
 
jeremyt said:
That’s the same forecast every year it seems. I’ve not seen a flake in 2-3 years so once again, it can’t get worse!
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Like I said after that disgrace of last winter I'm not believing anything but I agree i don't see how it can possibly get any worse either. I mean we nearly hit 90 in February we didn't even beat it til April I think... March never hit 80 but it was too late to matter at that point
 
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Brent said:
I will say after last year I'm not believing any predictions
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1. I’ll believe mild over cold forecasts though.
2. Most of these amateur forecasts are near worthless as they’re almost always cold wherever the forecaster lives, which is usually E US or Midwest.
I love the “battle zone” that many of these forecasts have every year in the upper SE. Like what does that even mean?
 
GaWx said:
1. I’ll believe mild over cold forecasts though.
2. Most of these amateur forecasts are near worthless as they’re almost always cold wherever the forecaster lives, which is usually E US or Midwest.
I love the “battle zone” that many of these forecasts have every year in the upper SE. Like what does that even mean?
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I mean climo here would say we're due for a good winter but who knows(I've gone back into climo and Tulsa has had back to back bad winters but never three in a row)...

And yeah nobody wants to see a warm forecast it doesn't get the likes...

And the battle zone yeah. I guarantee I'll be in it 🤣 🤣
 
Brent said:
I mean climo here would say we're due for a good winter but who knows(I've gone back into climo and Tulsa has had back to back bad winters but never three in a row)...

And yeah nobody wants to see a warm forecast it doesn't get the likes...

And the battle zone yeah. I guarantee I'll be in it 🤣 🤣
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You’ll have a much better chance than me in a strong -PDO/La Niña. Here in the deep SE, I’m fully expecting another mild winter. But winter is still my favorite season, regardless.
 
GaWx said:
You’ll have a much better chance than me in a strong -PDO/La Niña. Here in the deep SE, I’m fully expecting another mild winter. But winter is still my favorite season, regardless.
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La Nina has been the winter story here last few years so yeah I just hope it's not all in one week in January with the rest of the winter an absolute torch
 
Brent said:
Like I said after that disgrace of last winter I'm not believing anything but I agree i don't see how it can possibly get any worse either. I mean we nearly hit 90 in February we didn't even beat it til April I think... March never hit 80 but it was too late to matter at that point
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La Nina’s are good for us! Let’s go! 36” or bust this winter! ⛄️
 
severestorm said:
Take some deck pics again for all of us that are bound to be in a snow drought! You got a good amount last year.
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What kind of pics?

dorothy gale what GIF
 
Gopack42 said:
I bought a condo in Beech Mountain and am moving there full time in Sept. I hope my first winter is a complete white out with consistent negative temps and 40 mph winds. And no, I'm not joking.
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There will be a lot of that for sure. Congrats!
 
Gopack42 said:
I bought a condo in Beech Mountain and am moving there full time in Sept. I hope my first winter is a complete white out with consistent negative temps and 40 mph winds. And no, I'm not joking.
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Yeah, that's the place to be (..for the SE). I own a small vacation (/ kids college) house near Boone (Elevation ~3600'). But its winter weather is nothing compared to Beech Mountain. I've seen a foot of snow on top of Beech but only a half inch at the house. It's a cool little town as well. A few shops. For your major shopping you'll want to go down to Banner Elk or Boone (as you probably already know).
 
lexxnchloe said:
Less impactful than normal? Hopefully not less impactful than the last few years.




Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather
·
17h

Depends where you live, but the early signs aren't looking great for a snowy winter in the south or east.It's early and things can change, though.
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Unfortunately, whether things look great or bleak, it doesn't matter all that much. We've been on the struggle bus with the MJO the last few years.
 
Rain Cold said:
Unfortunately, whether things look great or bleak, it doesn't matter all that much. We've been on the struggle bus with the MJO the last few years.
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I’d rather go into winter looking bleak!! Everytime they predict blockbuster cold and snow in the east, it’s failboat city!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’d rather go into winter looking bleak!! Everytime they predict blockbuster cold and snow in the east, it’s failboat city!
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Yeah the snowy predictions never work out here either. That's another reason I'm still mad about last winter because everyone said it would be better
 
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