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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

Tarheel1 said:
The GFS and other models can’t get 7 day temps right! So the NAMASTE model fro next winter, will probably be dead on!
Another thing, if the model was ran recently, it would still be picking up on the El Niño background state, which is exactly how the map here looks!
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This looks like a nina pattern tbh, but a torch heavy one
 
At best these models don't have a clue what will happen next week let alone 6-9 months from now and we end up with an okay winter. At worst we end up with an extended 5 months of fall with upper 50's to low 70's starting in October. Either way we win.
 
iGRXY said:
At best these models don't have a clue what will happen next week let alone 6-9 months from now and we end up with an okay winter. At worst we end up with an extended 5 months of fall with upper 50's to low 70's starting in October. Either way we win.
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Models have been right about winter torching, but wrong about BN winters the last decade. Torch ? Book it. La Niña will give us a favorable window earlier more then likely, like it has done the last several years, then the door shuts February
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Models have been right about winter torching, but wrong about BN winters the last decade. Torch ? Book it. La Niña will give us a favorable window earlier more then likely, like it has done the last several years, then the door shuts February
Click to expand...
Yep, the cold will be to our NW. But it will be hard to get it east of the apps. Memphis may do good again this year.
 
Next winter will feature a cold outbreak somewhere West of the Apps, with a couple days here and there East of them that actually feel like winter.

The rest of the period will be well above average with only one or two fronts getting non mountain locations into the teens for lows. There will be a couple of possible "snow" possibilities to track but they will be too marginal for most.

AVL will end it's snow drought, but it won't be a good season. GSP and CLT might get a tiny accumulation somewhere down the line but it's going to be a struggle all season. Feb will continue to be a complete Spring month and we'll see another early leaf out.

In short... don't fall for the inevitable "cold and snowy " predictions that will be put out everywhere; this is going to be another tough one.
 
We’ll score locally on something anomalously this winter but the pattern will stink overall. Forget the 14 day looks for tracking
 
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