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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

Gopack42 said:
I'm moving to Beech Mountain next week after buying a condo, so this will be my first winter in the high country. I hope I will see some decent snow for my first winter. I've lived at the coast (er.....beach) for the past 3 years and don't think I've seen one flake fly.
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Moving from Emeral Isle to Beech Mountain is like moving from Miami to Minneapolis. Get ready to be shocked this winter.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, I’d probably get a 4 wheel drive vehicle to drive in it too. Stuff just doesn’t all close down for an inch of snow up there.
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For sure. Its a trek just getting down to Banner Elk off the mountain sometimes. Its a completely different climate from even those at 3k. You will get northwest flow snow and 40 mph winds behind almost every front.
 
Gopack42 said:
I'm moving to Beech Mountain next week after buying a condo, so this will be my first winter in the high country. I hope I will see some decent snow for my first winter. I've lived at the coast (er.....beach) for the past 3 years and don't think I've seen one flake fly.
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I'm extremely jealous of you! Beech is a great place to be in the winter. I'd get stocked up with three weeks supply of necessities if it was me.
 
weatherfide said:
I'm extremely jealous of you! Beech is a great place to be in the winter. I'd get stocked up with three weeks supply of necessities if it was me.
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Yes sir. I work at Lejeune (during projects I have going on) and I always get Marines to give me MREs and I stock up on canned food, rice, beans, etc and have a water distiller, life straw and keep bottled water. The only thing I need to get is a Kerosene heater when I move, but that's easy enough. From what I understand, power is never a major problem even in wind storms or snow storms. I can't wait! I love it!
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, I’d probably get a 4 wheel drive vehicle to drive in it too. Stuff just doesn’t all close down for an inch of snow up there.
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For sure. I've spent my fair share of time up in that area, so it won't be a complete shock. I lived in the Black Mountain area for about 2 years a while back, and although it's not fair comparing Beech to BM, I haven't been at the coast my whole life either. I love the cold, hate the heat, love the mountains, can take or leave the sand, so I'm eager to get there.
 
Welp when your anoms match JB you are doomed
SD said:
If I had to put out a winter forecast today I'd go +1-3 Dec +2-4 Jan +6-8 Feb. Min temps for most of the region in the upper single digits (North/ normally colder) to upper 10s (south/urban centers). I think with the cold likely dumping in the rockies and upper Midwest areas of TX, AR, Ms, TN, NAl probably sneak in 1 or 2 significant overunning events, for us the carolinas if we score big its likely a miller a. Most likely period for cold/snow is 12/20-1/10 (possibly later as you go west), another lower confidence period late in November into the first handful of days in December. No reason to really predict snowfall vs average since our seasonal totals are low enough one good storm in an overall warm pattern puts you at 100+%. Caveats right now are the SPV, how much north Atlantic blocking is realized if any, how strong does the nina get, when does it start breaking down and where does the western ridge setup. But it's still late August so this will likely change
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KyloG said:
JB going with blowtoch for us...atleast for RDU we haven't sniffed a snowflake in years it seems, this would suck.

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LickWx said:
First time in history for him predicting warmth, maybe he finally grew up
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In Aug of 2020 for 20-21, he actually made an even warmer SE forecast:
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However, he revised it significantly cooler in late Nov to this even though it was still AN (that’s again for 20-21 despite his vague heading):
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So, if he doesn’t later revise the current one colder, it would be his warmest FINAL winter forecast for the SE since at least 2014-5. The key is whether he’ll stick with it. I give him kudos for actually making what’s for him a rare warm forecast at least initially.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
With how hurricane season is going so far maybe it'll be completely opposite this time. No way we go 4 winters in a row and get completely screwed all of them.
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All indications I’ve seen suggest a significantly warmer SE this winter with a dominant SE ridge due to a combo of a strong -PDO and La Nina (at least based on RONI) vs last winter’s near to a bit warmer than normal El Nino. So, I think JB’s forecast makes sense. Of course there are always large uncertainties in long range forecasting with nothing ever being even close to set in stone.
 
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GaWx said:
All indications I’ve seen suggest a significantly warmer SE this winter with a dominant SE ridge due to a combo of a strong -PDO and La Nina (at least based on RONI) vs last winter’s near to a bit warmer than normal El Nino. So, I think JB’s forecast makes sense. Of course there are always large uncertainties in long range forecasting with nothing ever being even close to set in stone.
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Be honest. Do you think we'll ever have a below normal winter again ?
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Be honest. Do you think we'll ever have a below normal winter again ?
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I honestly don’t think you’re being serious. But anyway of course we will. Who’s to say 2025-6 won’t be cold? In advance of 2009-10, did you expect that 4 of the subsequent winters would be cold? They sometimes come in clumps like that. From 1976-7 through 1981-2, 5 of those 6 were cold at ATL. Most of the 60s were cold. Many of those from 1898-9 through 1911-2 were cold, too. When will be the next cold clump?
 
Past 3 winters is roughly what JB is showing for temps...so yeah, that is a blow torch. 2021 was a BN winter so maybe we can get lucky



cd107.15.181.206.245.15.14.15.prcp.pngcd107.15.181.206.245.15.14.2.prcp.png
 
KyloG said:
And for the record...I like a snowy/cold winter this year. Everyone is warm just like everyone was on board with the super scary hurricane season and we see how that is working out.
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On what factors is your snowy/cold winter forecast based? (assuming it isn’t just because you want to go way against the grain)
 
GaWx said:
On what factors is your snowy/cold winter forecast based? (assuming it isn’t just because you want to go way against the grain)
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We are looking at a neutral/neutral negative enso this winter. Past couple of neutral negative winters haven't been warm. Many are just blindly spewing it will be warm.



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Drizzle Snizzle said:
I’m not sure why it’s showing below normal in Charlotte considering it was +1.1 in Dec, +2.2 in Jan, and +0.2 in Feb.
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I was wondering that myself. I'm almost certain the GSP, CLT to RDU corridor hasn't averaged below average for the whole 3 month period since the 2014-2015 winter.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I was wondering that myself. I'm almost certain the GSP, CLT to RDU corridor hasn't averaged below average for the whole 3 month period since the 2014-2015 winter.
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I was thinking the same thing. That's why asking if we will ever see a below normal 3 month meteorological winter again doesn't seem that crazy of a question.
 
There's interpolation, satellite, and numerous additional sites mixed into those maps. You couldn't use a single ob point to create them
 
J.C. said:
I was thinking the same thing. That's why asking if we will ever see a below normal 3 month meteorological winter again doesn't seem that crazy of a question.
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There is something related to global warming that is causing this. I don't think anyone knows exactly what it is, tbh. But the reality of just how difficult it is to experience a below normal winter is hard to ignore.
 
KyloG said:
We are looking at a neutral/neutral negative enso this winter. Past couple of neutral negative winters haven't been warm. Many are just blindly spewing it will be warm.



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That's interesting because a lot of people are starting to bring up the 2013 hurricane season(another season that never started) but after the last couple years yeah im not believing anything good
 
KyloG said:
We are looking at a neutral/neutral negative enso this winter. Past couple of neutral negative winters haven't been warm. Many are just blindly spewing it will be warm.



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That stretch was the coldest time I remember in my life.

Edit: The averages listed were also skewed by late night fronts as well. I remember one where the High was 38 degrees or so at Midnight, but in the teens at midday.
 
We may end up with a somewhat similar look to 2013 once the month composites out. The eps isn't that far off
PzPVj4GUvf.pngeps_z500a_nhem_61 (4).png

What I think makes or breaks continuing a similar path will be the pdo and the strat pv. The pdo rose during the winter of 2013 though still negative. The strat pv was disturbed in October then got going over AK in November then into north america for DJ. I haven't plotted a ton of data points but I am starting to lean to the strat pv has to spend some time in NW Canada during the winter of we want cold. Unfortunately the monthly cfs has the strat pv anchored where we have seen it the past few years.
 
Instead of it being the ClimateForecastingSystem (CFS0 it should be called the ClimateFantasySystem
 
NWMSGuy said:
Now researching Winter of 1929. Lol

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Thats always the trivia in all of this, we compare time periods when one of those time periods we had no way of knowing what was out there and never came ashore. We could be in a historic of epic proportions lull right now.
 
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