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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

Myfrotho704_ said:
My first impression of this winter looking at drivers - warm across much of the country, especially the SE. the best chances of BN temps and more snow would be the central/northern Great Plains and upper Midwest
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Fro, what up! You know winter is close when there’s a Fro sighting! F85AD1B2-1A2E-4F17-8AD4-21B52BD6AFC0.pngA4F834FC-D36C-44EF-B494-DA8A211D3A7E.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Fro, what up! You know winter is close when there’s a Fro sighting! View attachment 150211View attachment 150210
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These are never right. What ever the ENSO State is they just copy and paste what the temp and precip maps are suppose to look like for a La Nina or El Nino. The previous couple La Ninas we got a ton of rainfall during the winter.
 
iGRXY said:
We haven't seen a flake since January 2022. Before that we had some grass toppers in 2019 & 2020. Oconee, Pickens, and western Greenville did well in 2020 or 2021 with a quick 2-5" that melted by the next day.
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I just assumed the favored CAD locations had at a least a snow shower or two during that time period. That’s incredible.
 
I think the lean is going to continue to be warmer until something major changes. Some kind of ocean current reversing or shutting down, a supervolcano going off, nuclear war, an asteroid, a pole shift, or some kind of solar or atmospheric phenomenon is going to have to happen to reverse things. I know I could full well be wrong on that, but it doesn't feel like we're just in a 10 or 20 year cycle here.
 
If I had to put out a winter forecast today I'd go +1-3 Dec +2-4 Jan +6-8 Feb. Min temps for most of the region in the upper single digits (North/ normally colder) to upper 10s (south/urban centers). I think with the cold likely dumping in the rockies and upper Midwest areas of TX, AR, Ms, TN, NAl probably sneak in 1 or 2 significant overunning events, for us the carolinas if we score big its likely a miller a. Most likely period for cold/snow is 12/20-1/10 (possibly later as you go west), another lower confidence period late in November into the first handful of days in December. No reason to really predict snowfall vs average since our seasonal totals are low enough one good storm in an overall warm pattern puts you at 100+%. Caveats right now are the SPV, how much north Atlantic blocking is realized if any, how strong does the nina get, when does it start breaking down and where does the western ridge setup. But it's still late August so this will likely change
 
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Rain Cold said:
I think the lean is going to continue to be warmer until something major changes. Some kind of ocean current reversing or shutting down, a supervolcano going off, nuclear war, an asteroid, a pole shift, or some kind of solar or atmospheric phenomenon is going to have to happen to reverse things. I know I could full well be wrong on that, but it doesn't feel like we're just in a 10 or 20 year cycle here.
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I guess while I do think climate change is part of it ( sorry for mentioning that in this thread) I still have memories of just how horrendous the 90s were around here for winter weather. So that’s why I think a big part of just how bad the last few years has been is more cyclical than anything else. Keep in mind that even with how bad things have been since 2019, there have been 4 very good to great winters in the last 15 years… ,‘09-10, ‘10-11, ‘13-14, and ‘14-15
 
iGRXY said:
We haven't seen a flake since January 2022. Before that we had some grass toppers in 2019 & 2020. Oconee, Pickens, and western Greenville did well in 2020 or 2021 with a quick 2-5" that melted by the next day.
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Feb 2020, I think.
 
SD said:
If I had to put out a winter forecast today I'd go +1-3 Dec +2-4 Jan +6-8 Feb. Min temps for most of the region in the upper single digits (North/ normally colder) to upper 10s (south/urban centers). I think with the cold likely dumping in the rockies and upper Midwest areas of TX, AR, Ms, TN, NAl probably sneak in 1 or 2 significant overunning events, for us the carolinas if we score big its likely a miller a. Most likely period for cold/snow is 12/20-1/10 (possibly later as you go west), another lower confidence period late in November into the first handful of days in December. No reason to really predict snowfall vs average since our seasonal totals are low enough one good storm in an overall warm pattern puts you at 100+%. Caveats right now are the SPV, how much north Atlantic blocking is realized if any, how strong does the nina get, when does it start breaking down and where does the western ridge setup. But it's still late August so this will likely change
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This sounds a lot like how the winter of 1998-99 went around here. The CAD region had 2 ice storms during that 12/20-1/10 period you mentioned. Then winter was basically over outside of the mountains except for a minor ice event in March.
 
Chazwin said:
I guess while I do think climate change is part of it ( sorry for mentioning that in this thread) I still have memories of just how horrendous the 90s were around here for winter weather. So that’s why I think a big part of just how bad the last few years has been is more cyclical than anything else. Keep in mind that even with how bad things have been since 2019, there have been 4 very good to great winters in the last 15 years… ,‘09-10, ‘10-11, ‘13-14, and ‘14-15
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If not for March 1993 and the winter of 1995-96 many of us would have had little to no snow from Jan 1990 through Dec 1999. We did get a major ice storm in the CAD region in 1999 too, but yes, the 1990's were not good at all.
 
Chazwin said:
I guess while I do think climate change is part of it ( sorry for mentioning that in this thread) I still have memories of just how horrendous the 90s were around here for winter weather. So that’s why I think a big part of just how bad the last few years has been is more cyclical than anything else. Keep in mind that even with how bad things have been since 2019, there have been 4 very good to great winters in the last 15 years… ,‘09-10, ‘10-11, ‘13-14, and ‘14-15
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I've got 13-14 on the analog board so far
 
JHS said:
If not for March 1993 and the winter of 1995-96 many of us would have had little to no snow from Jan 1990 through Dec 1999. We did get a major ice storm in the CAD region in 1999 too, but yes, the 1990's were not good at all.
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KATL got 5” on 1/18/92. I know someone in the far S burbs who got 8”! OTOH, I received significantly less on the northside with ~2.5”, which melted very quickly, as I recall.
 
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