Brent
Member
Lol that's not exactly gonna be hard. Like honestly if we can't do better than that mess I give up
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Lol that's not exactly gonna be hard. Like honestly if we can't do better than that mess I give up
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Trying my hand at putting some winter analogs together based on a broad slew of factors (ocean, solar, QBO, etc.)
The weighted SSTa composite that comes out of this isn't too shabby at all.
The weighted SSTa composite that comes out of this isn't too shabby at all.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My way too early & honest overall impression of this upcoming winter based on these analog years (whose SST composite is posted above) is we might be in for quite a roller coaster ride across much of the CONUS & N America.
The La Niña, warm Tropical West Pacific, west QBO, & high solar combo is usually one that favors a strong + poleward shifted Aleutian ridge, w/ more frequent bouts of -EPO/-WPO that occasionally seed North America w/ brutally cold air from Siberia, although the Nina-induced SE US ridge may resist its southward progression at certain points. The prevalence of a -EPO/-WPO this winter seems to be showing up time & time again.
Oth, signals are pretty mixed over the North Atlantic & polar cap, though a -NAM/-AO/-NAO is slightly favored if anything. I generally agree w/ that based on recent history of -ENSO winters & how things are starting to unfold leading into this winter and what some of the indicators are (like high solar + west qbo + La Niña) that normally in conjunction are more conducive to sudden stratospheric warming events.
In terms of modern winters, years like 2013-14 & 1988-89 really seem to stand out as some of the best analogs compared to the rest of the pack.
The month-to-month variability in this composite of years is honestly wild. Says a lot about where I think we might be headed this year. Sure, I think a milder-than-average winter is likely in the cards for us in the southern tier of the CONUS, but how we get there doesn't exactly look straightforward at all. Even if our mean temps are warmer-than-average (which I think they'll probably be this year), there should going to be enough cold air floating around in our general vicinity (N American continent) for legitimate opportunities at wintry weather to come knocking if we briefly line a few things up. Couldn't necessarily say that about last winter for the most part.
December
January
February
March
The La Niña, warm Tropical West Pacific, west QBO, & high solar combo is usually one that favors a strong + poleward shifted Aleutian ridge, w/ more frequent bouts of -EPO/-WPO that occasionally seed North America w/ brutally cold air from Siberia, although the Nina-induced SE US ridge may resist its southward progression at certain points. The prevalence of a -EPO/-WPO this winter seems to be showing up time & time again.
Oth, signals are pretty mixed over the North Atlantic & polar cap, though a -NAM/-AO/-NAO is slightly favored if anything. I generally agree w/ that based on recent history of -ENSO winters & how things are starting to unfold leading into this winter and what some of the indicators are (like high solar + west qbo + La Niña) that normally in conjunction are more conducive to sudden stratospheric warming events.
In terms of modern winters, years like 2013-14 & 1988-89 really seem to stand out as some of the best analogs compared to the rest of the pack.
The month-to-month variability in this composite of years is honestly wild. Says a lot about where I think we might be headed this year. Sure, I think a milder-than-average winter is likely in the cards for us in the southern tier of the CONUS, but how we get there doesn't exactly look straightforward at all. Even if our mean temps are warmer-than-average (which I think they'll probably be this year), there should going to be enough cold air floating around in our general vicinity (N American continent) for legitimate opportunities at wintry weather to come knocking if we briefly line a few things up. Couldn't necessarily say that about last winter for the most part.
December
January
February
March
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a Quick Look at how I put these analog years together.
The arbitrary point system for some 2024-25 winter analogs:
+2.0 pts: East-based La Niña
+0.0 pts: “Hybrid” La Niña
-2.0 pts: Central Pacific Nina
+1.5 pts: Warm West Pacific
+0.0 pts: “Neutral” West Pacific
-1.5 pts: “Cool” West Pacific
+1.0 pt: -AMO Tripole
+1.5 pts: -AMO tripole AND warm Atlantic Canada
+2.0 pts: -AMO tripole, warm Atlantic Canada, & warm MDR (very hard to do)
-1.0 pt: +AMO tripole
+0.5 pt: < 100 (adjusted) ACE non-El Nino hurricane season
+1 pt: Solar max (> 0.5 sigma sunspot numbers for Aug (climo: 1750-present))
0 pts: Neutral Solar (< 0.5 sigma & > -0.5 sigma sunspot numbers)
-1 pt: Solar min (< -0.5 sigma sunspot numbers)
QBO: Bronimann et al., 2007 (1900-1952) & University of Berlin (1953-Present)
+1 pts: 50 hPa West QBO
-1 Pts: 50 hPa East QBO
+1 pt: 50 hPa West QBO AND Solar Max
-1 pt: 50 hPa East QBO AND Solar Min
NAO: Jones NAO (1821-Present)
+1 pt: Jun-Jul-Aug +NAO (> 0.5 sigma)
+1.5 pts: Jun-Jul-Aug +NAO (> 0.5 sigma) AND Sep -NAO
-1 pt: Jun-Jul-Aug -NAO (< -0.5 sigma)
IOD (DMI, HADISST 1870-Present)
+1 pt: Negative or Neutral IOD (< 0.5 sigma)
-1 pt: Positive IOD ( > 0.5 sigma)
Sep -WPO (Standardized 500mb height difference between 30-50N, 110-200E and 55-80N, 110-200E)
+0.5 pt: Positive WPO ( > 0.5 sigma)
0 pt: Neutral WPO (< 0.5 & >-0.5 sigma)
-0.5 pt: Negative WPO (< -0.5 sigma)
Sep -AO (1st EOF of SLP poleward of 20N, NOAA 20CRv3 (1876-2015), NCEP R1 (2016-Present)
+0.5 pt: Negative AO (< -0.5 sigma)
0 pt: Neutral AO (< 0.5 & >-0.5 sigma)
-0.5 pt: Positive AO (> 0.5 sigma)
Max Possible Points: 17.5
Top 20 Winters:
#1 2013-14: 13.0 pts
#2 1988-89: 11.5 pts
#3 1882-83: 9.5 pts
#3 1892-93: 9.5 pts
#5 2017-18: 9.0 pts
#5 2020-21: 9.0 pts
#5 2022-23: 9.0 pts
#8 1970-71: 8.5 pts
#8 1981-82: 8.5 pts
#10 1967-68: 8.0 pts
#11 1938-39: 7.5 pts
#11 1973-74: 7.5 pts
#11 2005-06: 7.5 pts
#14 1889-90: 7.0 pts
#14 1894-95: 7.0 pts
#14 1920-21: 7.0 pts
#14 1961-62: 7.0 pts
#18 1955-56: 6.5 pts
#18 1999-00: 6.5 pts
#18 2000-01: 6.5 pts
The arbitrary point system for some 2024-25 winter analogs:
+2.0 pts: East-based La Niña
+0.0 pts: “Hybrid” La Niña
-2.0 pts: Central Pacific Nina
+1.5 pts: Warm West Pacific
+0.0 pts: “Neutral” West Pacific
-1.5 pts: “Cool” West Pacific
+1.0 pt: -AMO Tripole
+1.5 pts: -AMO tripole AND warm Atlantic Canada
+2.0 pts: -AMO tripole, warm Atlantic Canada, & warm MDR (very hard to do)
-1.0 pt: +AMO tripole
+0.5 pt: < 100 (adjusted) ACE non-El Nino hurricane season
+1 pt: Solar max (> 0.5 sigma sunspot numbers for Aug (climo: 1750-present))
0 pts: Neutral Solar (< 0.5 sigma & > -0.5 sigma sunspot numbers)
-1 pt: Solar min (< -0.5 sigma sunspot numbers)
QBO: Bronimann et al., 2007 (1900-1952) & University of Berlin (1953-Present)
+1 pts: 50 hPa West QBO
-1 Pts: 50 hPa East QBO
+1 pt: 50 hPa West QBO AND Solar Max
-1 pt: 50 hPa East QBO AND Solar Min
NAO: Jones NAO (1821-Present)
+1 pt: Jun-Jul-Aug +NAO (> 0.5 sigma)
+1.5 pts: Jun-Jul-Aug +NAO (> 0.5 sigma) AND Sep -NAO
-1 pt: Jun-Jul-Aug -NAO (< -0.5 sigma)
IOD (DMI, HADISST 1870-Present)
+1 pt: Negative or Neutral IOD (< 0.5 sigma)
-1 pt: Positive IOD ( > 0.5 sigma)
Sep -WPO (Standardized 500mb height difference between 30-50N, 110-200E and 55-80N, 110-200E)
+0.5 pt: Positive WPO ( > 0.5 sigma)
0 pt: Neutral WPO (< 0.5 & >-0.5 sigma)
-0.5 pt: Negative WPO (< -0.5 sigma)
Sep -AO (1st EOF of SLP poleward of 20N, NOAA 20CRv3 (1876-2015), NCEP R1 (2016-Present)
+0.5 pt: Negative AO (< -0.5 sigma)
0 pt: Neutral AO (< 0.5 & >-0.5 sigma)
-0.5 pt: Positive AO (> 0.5 sigma)
Max Possible Points: 17.5
Top 20 Winters:
#1 2013-14: 13.0 pts
#2 1988-89: 11.5 pts
#3 1882-83: 9.5 pts
#3 1892-93: 9.5 pts
#5 2017-18: 9.0 pts
#5 2020-21: 9.0 pts
#5 2022-23: 9.0 pts
#8 1970-71: 8.5 pts
#8 1981-82: 8.5 pts
#10 1967-68: 8.0 pts
#11 1938-39: 7.5 pts
#11 1973-74: 7.5 pts
#11 2005-06: 7.5 pts
#14 1889-90: 7.0 pts
#14 1894-95: 7.0 pts
#14 1920-21: 7.0 pts
#14 1961-62: 7.0 pts
#18 1955-56: 6.5 pts
#18 1999-00: 6.5 pts
#18 2000-01: 6.5 pts
Brent
Member
Weird 13-14 was big here but 88-89 was meh.. better than last year but not by much
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Weak (ish) La Niña winters like this tend to be some of the hardest ones to forecast and possess some of the largest variability from event-to-event. Even small changes in long wave placement can mean the difference between a blowtorch & being bitterly cold. Subtle things can make a much bigger difference in years like this.
13-14 was great here, especially from late January on. 88-89 looks good just looking at the snowfall that season… within a week of each other mid to late February after a small system in mid December. Between that though was an absolute torch
lexxnchloe
Member
From LC
One last thing: I am seeing some changes in the global pattern which have led me to alter some aspects of the North America DJF 2024-25 winter season. I would advise keeping an eye on the evolution of a southern branch jet stream and a deep Gulf of Alaska vortex. There are some aspects of the 2007-2008 period that could appear in the months ahead.
One last thing: I am seeing some changes in the global pattern which have led me to alter some aspects of the North America DJF 2024-25 winter season. I would advise keeping an eye on the evolution of a southern branch jet stream and a deep Gulf of Alaska vortex. There are some aspects of the 2007-2008 period that could appear in the months ahead.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
I remember on the weather channel seeing Carl Parker back in mid November 2013 showing big HP's coming south out of Canada and at that point I had that feeling we were in for a long long winter here.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
Webb, was 2013-14 winter more of a neutral enso winter? Definitely dominant -epo/epo all winter with only very brief bouts of -ao/nao from what I remember
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itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
You should have a better chance with the trough being further west this winter with bigger cold shots imo
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itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
In the 2021-2022 winter, once I noticed the niña being more east based, I predicted it to be a colder winter, despite a lot of people on bandwagon on it being warm because of strength of the niña. Position of the niño or niña in the Pacific is as important or even more important than the overall strength imo
Early Sept (vs early August) ONI ENSO models progs for coolest trimonthly:
UKMET: no change ~-0.95
JMA: cooled from -0.56 to ~-0.9
Meteo-France: cooled from -0.2 to ~-0.65
BoM (Australia): cooled from -0.23 to ~-.5
CFS: warmed from -1.39 to ~-1.2
Euro: cooled from -0.29 to ~-0.7
Last year’s early Sep runs: UKMET had been steady then too at +2.00 and ended up perfect with JMA barely too warm and CFS a bit too cool. Euro was moderately too warm while BoM and Meteo-France were way too warm.
Taking all of the above into account, my current educated guess for the coolest trimonthly reading is -0.9 to -1.0. Based on this and taking into account that the relative ONI (RONI) is currently ~0.5 cooler than ONI though it may be headed to 0.4 by winter, I’m now guessing -1.3 to -1.5 for coolest RONI trimonthly (moderate La Niña). The latest (JJA) ONI was at +.05 while latest RONI was at -0.44.
ONI:
RONI: takes into account surrounding very warm tropical SST anomalies
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
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You’re correct and you could tell even in that blowtorch that ended December and brought in the New Year that the indicies were lining up well for the eastern 2/3rds of the country.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
I was shocked that it was that warm in December for sure back then
Brent
Member
Yeah that winter all our snow was in February and March lol
Still way better than the last two winters though... we had a 2 day snowstorm in February... been about 2 hours since...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Jun-Jul-Aug 500mb pattern preceding -WPO cool enso neutral and La Niña winters (< -0.5 sigma).
That sure looks familiar lol (notice the strong +NAO)
Dec-Mar 500mb pattern of those big -WPO years
That sure looks familiar lol (notice the strong +NAO)
Dec-Mar 500mb pattern of those big -WPO years
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Adding onto the previous post, here's what the correlation looks like between summer +NAO and the following winter's 500mb pattern in ERA-5 using the AO & NAO indices.
The preceding summer +NAO/+AO >> subsequent winter -EPO/-WPO connection looks legit.
Coupled w/ the warm tropical West Pacific, La Niña, westerly QBO & high solar, I suspect the risk of -EPO/-WPO this winter is much higher than usual
The preceding summer +NAO/+AO >> subsequent winter -EPO/-WPO connection looks legit.
Coupled w/ the warm tropical West Pacific, La Niña, westerly QBO & high solar, I suspect the risk of -EPO/-WPO this winter is much higher than usual
JHS
Member
Feb 1989 was a wild ride in the Carolinas. Very warm to start and then cold a week later will lows in the single digits and teens, then back to 80 a week later. Just 2 days after that, a major icestorm hit. It got fairly warm again that next week but was quickly followed up with a snowstorm.
JHS
Member
That winter and spring were crazy in the Carolinas. Warm, then icy, then back to warm, then quickly to snow. Then May 5 brought a tornado outbreak in the piedmont of both states.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Summertime 30mb zonal wind correlation w/ the EP/NP pattern, a proxy for the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO).
Here positive/westerly zonal wind (warm colors) is positively correlated w/ the EP/NP (which translates to the negative phase of the EPO).
This means that a westerly QBO (especially in a La Niña), like this year favors more high-latitude blocking in/around Alaska/a -EPO.
Here's the contemporary correlation between Dec-Mar 50mb zonal wind & Dec-Mar EP/NH pattern.
Notice the lower stratosphere westerly QBO here.
EP/NP pattern
Here positive/westerly zonal wind (warm colors) is positively correlated w/ the EP/NP (which translates to the negative phase of the EPO).
This means that a westerly QBO (especially in a La Niña), like this year favors more high-latitude blocking in/around Alaska/a -EPO.
Here's the contemporary correlation between Dec-Mar 50mb zonal wind & Dec-Mar EP/NH pattern.
Notice the lower stratosphere westerly QBO here.
EP/NP pattern
I've posted before about the la nina year 1996. That was a great winter for many of us. It was a weak la nina (which is what we want), but there were other critical factors listed here (..which is outside of my knowledge):
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
It was definitely cold shots for sure. We had a monster ice storm/sleet storm begging of Feb 96 here in Mid South, but it got so cold so quick that most of it was to our south and east.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
If anyone is interested, bamwx has a YouTube video called WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAYS that posts every Wednesday. They talk about the upcoming winter and indicators that lead them to go one way or the other in terms of what will more than likely unfold this winter.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
Stormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter
. He said it happened the last five winters
. He said it happened the last five wintersStormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter
itryatmanysportsespgolf70 (wow, impressive name..it takes up half a line and makes me laugh!)
Except for the -NAO of 20-21.
Chuck knows his leading indicators! He clearly wants a +NAO in Oct.
Brent
Member
I will say it does seem like snow is ahead of schedule in some areas
Now whether that's good or not I dunno because early cold has done us no good like ive said before. It's such a double edge sword because everyone wants it to get cold and then we waste it like last year
Now whether that's good or not I dunno because early cold has done us no good like ive said before. It's such a double edge sword because everyone wants it to get cold and then we waste it like last year
Sounds promising. He's calling for an eastern Pacific la nina, which is what 95-96 was. Just shows this winter may not end up a torch.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Does the summer Northern Annular Mode (NAM)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) & North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have any predictive power for the following winter?
Actually yes.
The positive phase of the AO/NAO in summer (which we saw a lot of this year) significantly favors more high latitude blocking over the North Pacific during the following winter.
Here’s the 500mb correlation pattern for winters after a summer positive NAO and AO. Areas shaded are significant at the 95% level.
Notice how closely this pattern resembles the WPO & EPO
Actually yes.
The positive phase of the AO/NAO in summer (which we saw a lot of this year) significantly favors more high latitude blocking over the North Pacific during the following winter.
Here’s the 500mb correlation pattern for winters after a summer positive NAO and AO. Areas shaded are significant at the 95% level.
Notice how closely this pattern resembles the WPO & EPO
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here’s the Jul-Aug-Sep SST correlation to the following winter’s -WPO, areas shaded are statistically significant.
This year has a lot of the right elements here. An east-based La Niña, subtle +SSTa near 150W, and even captures the cooling over the Arabian Sea to an extent. Curious to see how this looks in a month or two.
This year has a lot of the right elements here. An east-based La Niña, subtle +SSTa near 150W, and even captures the cooling over the Arabian Sea to an extent. Curious to see how this looks in a month or two.
Met1985
Member
I'm really not sure about this. I've seen so many things that are supposed to be leading factors but end up being nothing really. Especially when it comes to the NAO...Stormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter
We should have never had four weekends in a row a couple years ago in North Carolina with snow
Maybe it was 3 years ago I can't even remember
Lmao we already suck!
Even when we are in the blue we still suck so I take it with a grain of sno…I mean salt.
Brent
Member
I mean... Is it really news at this point? Even though we had one of our coldest days ever(top 5 or 6) last winter we still torched...
It's just the easy prediction