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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

jrips27 said:
Lmao we already suck!
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With La Nina and a very strong -PDO likely, I’d be surprised if the SE isn’t warmer than last winter’s mainly near to modestly warmer than normal. The best shot at BN is typically in the N US with that combo. Odds are very good the NE and especially the Midwest won’t be as warm as the torch that they had up there last winter.
 
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GaWx said:
With La Nina and a very strong -PDO likely, I’d be surprised if the SE isn’t warmer than last winter’s mainly near to modestly warmer than normal. The best shot at BN is typically in the N US with that combo. Odds are very good the NE and especially the Midwest won’t be as warm as the torch that they had up there last winter.
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Larry, if the Aleutian ridge is flat this winter, meaning not poleward, we will be extremely warm here. However, if it's more poleward, I think big cold shots will come down, especially if we get the -epo/wpo couplet imo. What was interesting is that last winters niño, which is typically backloaded, was colder early on and progressed warmer later in winter.
 
MichaelJ said:
JB came out with his winter forecast and joins the parade of us who think it will be an above normal winter in the East/South with below normal snow (and precip) in general
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I guess we hope for a few weeks of enough cold and moisture to come together. It only takes one event. We don't average much snow per year anyway around here
 
tennessee storm said:
Not. Good though. He goes with warm with I 100 percent agree…. Because he loves the hype up of cold …
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If JB’s current forecast were to not be later cooled, it would easily be his warmest final forecast for the SE/E US since at least 2014-5. (I don’t have access to the ones right before 2014-5.) The key is whether or not he’ll cool it down substantially like he did in late Nov for 20-21. The weenie and business side of him both want to do this again so badly and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he does just that/if that is planned.

20-21 initial forecast made in Aug:
IMG_9582.png

20-21 much colder update made in late Nov:
IMG_9583.png
 
GaWx said:
If JB’s current forecast were to not be later cooled, it would easily be his warmest final forecast for the SE/E US since at least 2014-5. (I don’t have access to the ones right before 2014-5.) The key is whether or not he’ll cool it down substantially like he did in late Nov for 20-21. The weenie and business side of him both want to do this again so badly and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he does just that/if that is planned.

20-21 initial forecast made in Aug:
View attachment 151790

20-21 much colder update made in late Nov:
View attachment 151791
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The outcome was alot colder that winter for sure
 
lexxnchloe said:
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WeatherBell CFS maps shouldn’t be taken seriously because they’re typically significantly colder than the real CFS output and are highly flawed (credit for the image below to Don Sutherland at AmericanWx)

IMG_0361.png

The comparison of this top left WB Feb map (avg of 10 days of runs) and the NCEP lower left Feb (again 10 days of runs) is very telling:

-WB CFS has Chicago ~-6F and W TX NN

-In stark contrast, NCEP CFS has Chicago only -1 to -1.5F and W TX +4 to +5F

-This is further confirmation that WB CFS maps tend to be much colder than what the actual model output shows. This is a big problem because it’s misrepresenting what the CFS is actually predicting.

-Also note how on the WB CFS that S Lake Michigan is almost always one of the, if not the, coldest spots in the E US while a mere 250 miles to the N in/near N Lake Michigan is often THE warmest in the E US and while N of that it gets much colder again.
 
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GaWx said:
If JB’s current forecast were to not be later cooled, it would easily be his warmest final forecast for the SE/E US since at least 2014-5. (I don’t have access to the ones right before 2014-5.) The key is whether or not he’ll cool it down substantially like he did in late Nov for 20-21. The weenie and business side of him both want to do this again so badly and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he does just that/if that is planned.

20-21 initial forecast made in Aug:
View attachment 151790

20-21 much colder update made in late Nov:
View attachment 151791
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Man, that’s ugly! Good thing he’s right about 10% of the time! 🥴
 
For the 2nd month in a row the CANSIPS fwiw has a developing Modoki El Niño (centered near 150-155W in Sept and drifting further W) next summer with it peaking in Sept 2025 or later. It is a little stronger on this run vs last month’s with my rough estimate of +1.0 in Sept in Nino 3.4. On a relative basis, it would probably be more like +0.7. Just food for thought for the winter after next and a reason I’ve been more excited about 2025-6 than 2024-5 for the SE US’ potential. Now if only the core of the WPAC marine heatwave could migrate E (one can always dream):

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While I respect all of the early forecasts, I think I will just wait and see what transpires as the past years in my memory have all have been busts. I think I will err on the side of no snow until I see it on the ground. Amazing to me how much we have progressed technology wise but still cant say 100% what the weather will be tomorrow.
 
jeremyt said:
While I respect all of the early forecasts, I think I will just wait and see what transpires as the past years in my memory have all have been busts. I think I will err on the side of no snow until I see it on the ground. Amazing to me how much we have progressed technology wise but still cant say 100% what the weather will be tomorrow.
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Yeah exactly weve had several snowstorms fall apart in a few hours here just in the last 2 years

I mean in February I went to bed with 2-4 inches forecast at midnight by daybreak and at 4am it was still raining... And that was the 2nd year in a row it happened
 
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