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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

KyloG said:
+PDO...even we can't screw this winter up

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1. Per this that has daily PDOs, it is still a very strong -PDO:
IMG_0193.png

2. That’s near record warm water in the middle latitudes of the Atlantic. There’s a lot of debate but I’m suspecting that is one of the factors keeping the MDR of the tropics quiet right now vs climo and expectations. Regardless, the Euro Weeklies are now hinting at it getting much more active late in Sept. fwiw. We’ll see.
 
GaWx said:
1. Per this that has daily PDOs, it is still a very strong -PDO:
View attachment 150449

2. That’s near record warm water in the middle latitudes of the Atlantic. There’s a lot of debate but I’m suspecting that is one of the factors keeping the MDR of the tropics quiet right now vs climo and expectations. Regardless, the Euro Weeklies are now hinting at it getting much more active late in Sept. fwiw. We’ll see.
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After February and March of last year, I’m quite confident in my assessment that the Euro Weeklies have as much value as old baby diapers. Never again #neverforget.
 
SnowNiner said:
After February and March of last year, I’m quite confident in my assessment that the Euro Weeklies have as much value as old baby diapers. Never again #neverforget.
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Lol. Indeed, they were poor during parts of last winter in falsely calling for cold. But to their credit they have been predicting the current quiet tropics period for a couple of weeks.
 
GaWx said:
1. Per this that has daily PDOs, it is still a very strong -PDO:
View attachment 150449

2. That’s near record warm water in the middle latitudes of the Atlantic. There’s a lot of debate but I’m suspecting that is one of the factors keeping the MDR of the tropics quiet right now vs climo and expectations. Regardless, the Euro Weeklies are now hinting at it getting much more active late in Sept. fwiw. We’ll see.
Click to expand...
I had a few moments in the past 30 days where I thought we were going to flip the pdo or at least go neutral and all the warm winter forecasts were going to not look so hot. Then this happenedcdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (2).png
 
SD said:
I had a few moments in the past 30 days where I thought we were going to flip the pdo or at least go neutral and all the warm winter forecasts were going to not look so hot. Then this happenedView attachment 150467
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Last winter on American Weather they were really touting the West Pacific being so warm and that would lead to troughing out west, and that is what we had. Luckily we got a few weeks in January of cold and snow here but winter ended quick after
 
I think if the niña develops and it's east based, we should have a colder winter imo. Similar to 21-22 winter. December was a blowtorch but after that, it got more interesting. A -pdo isn't good, but a -epo would help if we can get one
 
itryatmanysportsespgolf70 said:
I think if the niña develops and it's east based, we should have a colder winter imo. Similar to 21-22 winter. December was a blowtorch but after that, it got more interesting. A -pdo isn't good, but a -epo would help if we can get one
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I haven't seen a lot of evidence lately that enso matters at all. It used to, but it seems like it doesn't matter much over the last few years.
 
Rain Cold said:
I haven't seen a lot of evidence lately that enso matters at all. It used to, but it seems like it doesn't matter much over the last few years.
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La Nina has been better here but I'm still so irritated about last winter I think I'll believe it when I see it... like it's gonna take a lot for me to forget what a joke it was tbh
 
StoneColdHeel said:
I haven't seen a lot of evidence lately that anything that used to give us more snow here matters anymore.
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Maybe a la nina is better than anything else. At least we'll have cold air to our NW. If we can get some blocking (+PNA, -NAO,..) we might be able to tap into the cold (CAD) and score a storm. But it'll be difficult. The storm track is probably going to run up the apps for most storms. I think Memphis will do good again this year.
 
I'm moving to Beech Mountain next week after buying a condo, so this will be my first winter in the high country. I hope I will see some decent snow for my first winter. I've lived at the coast (er.....beach) for the past 3 years and don't think I've seen one flake fly.
 
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