On what factors is your snowy/cold winter forecast based? (assuming it isn’t just because you want to go way against the grain)
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
On what factors is your snowy/cold winter forecast based? (assuming it isn’t just because you want to go way against the grain)
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I’m not sure why it’s showing below normal in Charlotte considering it was +1.1 in Dec, +2.2 in Jan, and +0.2 in Feb.
We are looking at a neutral/neutral negative enso this winter. Past couple of neutral negative winters haven't been warm. Many are just blindly spewing it will be warm.
I was wondering that myself. I'm almost certain the GSP, CLT to RDU corridor hasn't averaged below average for the whole 3 month period since the 2014-2015 winter.
I was thinking the same thing. That's why asking if we will ever see a below normal 3 month meteorological winter again doesn't seem that crazy of a question.
There's interpolation, satellite, and numerous additional sites mixed into those maps. You couldn't use a single ob point to create them
There is something related to global warming that is causing this. I don't think anyone knows exactly what it is, tbh. But the reality of just how difficult it is to experience a below normal winter is hard to ignore.
Here's some winter for you:
Brent
Member
That's interesting because a lot of people are starting to bring up the 2013 hurricane season(another season that never started) but after the last couple years yeah im not believing anything good
That stretch was the coldest time I remember in my life.
Edit: The averages listed were also skewed by late night fronts as well. I remember one where the High was 38 degrees or so at Midnight, but in the teens at midday.
We may end up with a somewhat similar look to 2013 once the month composites out. The eps isn't that far off
What I think makes or breaks continuing a similar path will be the pdo and the strat pv. The pdo rose during the winter of 2013 though still negative. The strat pv was disturbed in October then got going over AK in November then into north america for DJ. I haven't plotted a ton of data points but I am starting to lean to the strat pv has to spend some time in NW Canada during the winter of we want cold. Unfortunately the monthly cfs has the strat pv anchored where we have seen it the past few years.
What I think makes or breaks continuing a similar path will be the pdo and the strat pv. The pdo rose during the winter of 2013 though still negative. The strat pv was disturbed in October then got going over AK in November then into north america for DJ. I haven't plotted a ton of data points but I am starting to lean to the strat pv has to spend some time in NW Canada during the winter of we want cold. Unfortunately the monthly cfs has the strat pv anchored where we have seen it the past few years.
MichaelJ
Member
Instead of it being the ClimateForecastingSystem (CFS0 it should be called the ClimateFantasySystem
Brent
Member
I would take normal snow after the last two years
I'll pass on the ice
I'll pass on the ice
NWMSGuy
Member
Now researching Winter of 1929. Lol
LickWx
Member
Mild with one small snowstorm
Thats always the trivia in all of this, we compare time periods when one of those time periods we had no way of knowing what was out there and never came ashore. We could be in a historic of epic proportions lull right now.
Just landed in Boston. Who do I see about stealing my snowstorms
get on the blue line from the airport and take it north to orient heights. there is a pub there called Renegades. talk to them
I think you need to jump on 93 and head up to Laconia, NH.