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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

Rain Cold said:
Does it really matter? I don't know if any historical corrections hold, tbh.
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Just my humble opinion but the seasons have changed a bit. We hold on to cooler weather longer and also the warm. I would imagine this is cyclical through time and a rebound will happen one way or the other soon enough.
 
olhausen said:
Damn it they have me near the edge by cold and snowy but still in mild and wet. Guess I’ll cancel winter and check back next fall. 😂 In all seriousness even though these maps are rarely right I still somehow end up happy or sad depending on what they show.
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Lol I don't even care what they predict here... Til it's falling I don't believe it anymore. Two winters in a row falling apart in the final day...
 
One analog that might be like this winter was 1931-32, though the SE was much wetter that winter. Maps showed an very warm October that continued right into the Feb before turning much colder in March and had a horrific Deep South tornado outbreak on 3/21. Also, that year was a negative neutral coming off the Strong nino the previous winter.
 
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I don’t really like the look of this winter’s overall pattern at all. Although I will say this, synoptic meteorology doesn’t care about patterns. There will be chances I promise y'all that. Expectations are not as high this year so let’s go into this by being patient!
 
LukeBarrette said:
I don’t really like the look of this winter’s overall pattern at all. Although I will say this, synoptic meteorology doesn’t care about patterns. There will be chances I promise y'all that. Expectations are not as high this year so let’s go into this by being patient!
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Last year there were tremendous expectations for a back half great winter, but that didn't work out at all. More front loaded actually imo
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
At least expectations are low this winter so there wont be any letdowns.
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Until that one storm forms and is tracked for a while, with a thread made 6 days out for it to move NW every run within 48 hours and only give people in Nashville north a storm.
 
Looks like high-latitude blocking may try to flip our pattern in a couple weeks. Of course need the +PNA to help us out but still not too shabby of a look right now.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Looks like high-latitude blocking may try to flip our pattern in a couple weeks. Of course need the +PNA to help us out but still not too shabby of a look right now.
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384 GFS classic west -NAO. Very nice Atlantic for sure.
 
How are the weeklies and JMA seasonal models looking for first half of December. Sniffing what the CFS has been past couple of days?
 
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