jeremyt
Member
I’ll take that, it’s easier going in 3-5 months out that the results will be the same!
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
lexxnchloe
Member
Lets the forecasts for winter keep getting so warm 80 will feel like a cold wave. Maybe they will all bust like the cane season forecasts.
I don't trust any winter forecast. I guess the la nina would argue for a warmer SE outcome, but there are so many more factors to consider. And if it ends up closer to neutral or weak that could help our (winter) prospects. But just get me to early December and I'll start looking at the pattern forecast two weeks at a time.
MichaelJ
Member
I don't think there is any way we avoid a very mild winter in the SE. With a la nina and the historical (last 5-6 winters) propensity for the MJO to slowly rotate thru phases 4-5 and 6, then add in a high solar, spells warm in the SE
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
Not every time, but most times, when you get a +qbo transition from -qbo and have high solar, actually you get more blocking but we shall see.
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah jb done said he expects the mjo be predominantly in phase 4 to 5 most of the winter season coming up
I think I hear the angels singing.
About these above-average seasonal outlooks. I remind everyone of the hurricane season near unanimous predictions of a hyperactive season.
The sun hasn't even crossed the equator yet. The truth of the matter is no one knows what the winter holds for us.
The sun hasn't even crossed the equator yet. The truth of the matter is no one knows what the winter holds for us.
He's going with persistence. Not always the best forecasting approach, but personally, I give it a higher weighting when it comes to winter forecasting. The mjo lives in 4-6 in the winter now.
tractor girl
Member
i.e., pain
Brent
Member
True I mean people thought we'd have a big winter last year and it sucked so I don't put much stock into these predictions
I mean yeah above average temps are probably gonna win out but even as bad as the last two winters have been here we've still had an extremely cold stretch for a week or so
At the end of the day where most of us live is just gonna be a problem. I mean I have a 9 inch climo here and we've had 3 inches in the last two years combined... we just have to hope we get a good pattern for a few days here and there when it matters
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itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
I agree Brent. Try to cash in if we can get a few weeks of cold and moisture. Our average is 5 inches snow here, which is just a little less than your area. I've said this before that if we are to get a cold pattern, it will come down to -epo/wpo combo. That can lead to real cold.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
It don't always happen like this, but my favorite two favorite things are a ridge over Alaska, and Arctic front stall to our south with many waves riding along it
Brent
Member
Honestly I don't even want real cold. We barely had any snow when it was so cold.
Give me 25-30 and heavy rates any day over that. That's why I was so mad over the donut hole in February that would have been the perfect storm but like all last winter besides the week in January there was no cold air
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Made a thread earlier today on X/twitter highlighting a few of my early thoughts about winter.
Brick Tamland
Member
When is the winter forecast coming out?
I’ll give it to you right now. Similar to this summer in terms of temps. Possibly a little more rain. Absolutely 0 snow.
Brent
Member
Everything I've seen so far is above normal temps
tennessee storm
Member
It’s out…. Above average temps pretty much east of the Rockies except for the far northeast
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
That's the default pattern we go to these days, but I'm cautiously optimistic that it will be colder than last winter