GolfishardIknowit70
Member
If it's pacific dominant, and we get the -epo/wpo, I like our chances. 2013-14 winter, we had +nao/ao alot if I recall correctly. It was definitely pacific dominant.
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
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GoDuke
Member
That’s all good and everything but just hit me up when there’s something legit to track. Although as we have all said before eventually things have to snap back the other direction from what we’ve been dealing with. Time will tell if it’s this year.
GoDuke
Member
just spreading a little hopium. We’ve had two snowless winters in a row and as long as records were kept that has never happened. So what are the chances we go three in a row? Gotta be pretty low right?
I would say they are low. But we have a record of proving stats wrong in a bad way around here. If it doesn’t snap back our way in the next few years then it could be permanent.
WRAL is predicting 0 to 1 inch of snow this winter. Get ready for a blizzard!
Brent
Member
Honestly I haven't even looked at anyone's predictions here... They're always wrong anyway
It's notable that over the next couple of weeks, the N. American snow cover looks to be quite extensive as we head into meteorological winter.
18z Operational caveats, and of course much of this would have melted in the lower 48 but if it's even in the neighborhood, that's a stark difference from last year's debacle.
18z Operational caveats, and of course much of this would have melted in the lower 48 but if it's even in the neighborhood, that's a stark difference from last year's debacle.
lexxnchloe
Member
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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That has a Niña temp footprint look to it! Bring on the 50 below normal temps! Think that would put my high about -15 to -20
Brent
Member
I don't even care about arctic air honestly I just want one big snowstorm. Better than the glorified dusting of the last 2 years
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
A board wide winter storm would be good
Brent
Member
A board wide winter storm would be good
That was my issue last year see we got to 5 degrees yes but there was barely any moisture and it really ate up our snow totals. 2 years in a row same setup and we never got a better one(which I thought surely we would considering the cold was before February both years). That's my sole problem right now
The hurricanes are using up all the energy for snow. We just need to drop some bombs on the hurricanes to break them up.
Man I really like that 12z GFS run. I knows its long range but it's nice to see back to back systems with HPs dropping out of the plains. Wouldn't take much to score a surprise for someone in the SE. Hopefully the trends continue in future runs. I've personally always loved the first ten days of December. That's when the seasons are changing and big systems develop.
wow
Member
That is a model run I haven't seen in YEARS. A persistent E Pac ridge building east.. neutral to neg NAO blocking. Let this be the end of it
wow
Member
And the Euro run confirms it. We've got motherf*ing ducks on the pond y'all!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Imo, we’re getting a little sneak peak at what this winter might look like large-scale wise. Strong projection onto the low frequency tropical forcing pattern (green shading overlaying the purple contour) in week 2 yields a nice -EPO/+TNH (Alaskan ridge/Hudson bay vortex) pattern
wow
Member
PV locked in over the NE.. Southern jet loaded for bear
Where are my smelling salts???
Where are my smelling salts???
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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2017-2023 Supporter
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Euro is King!They'll be available at 0z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The intriguing thing w/ -EPO/+TNH winters like this year may be is that once you see one, there's usually at least 1-2 more to follow.
-EPO/+TNH winters tend to come in 2-3 year clusters, and are typically immediately followed up by an El Niño event.
-EPO/+TNH winters tend to come in 2-3 year clusters, and are typically immediately followed up by an El Niño event.
I’ve honestly been debating (even here) if we were right on the precipice of another fruitful 3-4 winter period. Greenland blocking has returned if we can just adjust the Pacific a tad and get some TPV action under the blocking winter will return.
Brent
Member
Well our TV met just predicted December 3rd for first snowfall
He was wrong last year...
He was wrong last year...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In terms of maximizing our chances for seeing a -EPO/+TNH style mean winter pattern, we have pushed all of our chips to the center of the table this year, just about all the ingredients are there to make it happen imo.
High solar & west QBO (good for shifting the Aleutian high poleward towards Alaska), an east-based La Niña, an anomalously warm Indo-Pacific warm pool, helping to reinforce the long-term trend towards -EPO/+TNH. These kinds of winters have doubled in frequency since the mid-20th century.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's truly remarkable how closely this year's SSTa configuration resembles the long-term pattern trends of the North Indian & tropical West Pacific warming faster than the East Pac. The east-based La Niña, warm tropical Atlantic, & -PDO like signature in the North Pacific also match up remarkably well.
When you look at the corresponding 500mb trends, it gives you a +TNH/+NAO type pattern. Generally where I think this year is headed.
When you look at the corresponding 500mb trends, it gives you a +TNH/+NAO type pattern. Generally where I think this year is headed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The one thing that really sticks out to me that has the potential to significantly mute the canonical La Niña -PNA pattern this year & isn't getting a lot of notoriety, is the warm North Indian Ocean.
A warm North Indian Ocean actually favors a positive PNA, in part because the excess convection here adds enough westerly momentum into the Pacific jet to kick the Aleutian ridge closer to the US West Coast.
A warm North Indian Ocean actually favors a positive PNA, in part because the excess convection here adds enough westerly momentum into the Pacific jet to kick the Aleutian ridge closer to the US West Coast.
Can’t recall a look like this in a while.
Brent
Member
Well the other met I checked despite mentioning specifically that La Nina winters are more snowy here said slightly below normal snow lol
Of course I'm not totally sure that La Nina is even much of a thing....
These predictions are never right anyway I don't know why it matters
Of course I'm not totally sure that La Nina is even much of a thing....
These predictions are never right anyway I don't know why it matters
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
They may have more educational background, but ultimately they are guesses like most everyone else imoWell the other met I checked despite mentioning specifically that La Nina winters are more snowy here said slightly below normal snow lol
Of course I'm not totally sure that La Nina is even much of a thing....
These predictions are never right anyway I don't know why it matters
Brent
Member
Well yeah the same people swore last year would be better so I take them with a grain of salt
They couldn't even get the day before right the last two winters...
tennessee storm
Member
Only sure thing u can bet on, the climate keeps getting warmer…. Nothing we can do about that this point.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This might be one of those rare cases where seeing a near record strong polar vortex actually helps us this year.
NCSNOW
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nice wave reflection event into the troposphere thanks to this EPO/TNH pattern. It’s one of the ways this pattern can reinforce itself and become self sufficient on monthly to seasonal scales.
