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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

I don't trust any winter forecast. I guess the la nina would argue for a warmer SE outcome, but there are so many more factors to consider. And if it ends up closer to neutral or weak that could help our (winter) prospects. But just get me to early December and I'll start looking at the pattern forecast two weeks at a time.
 
I don't think there is any way we avoid a very mild winter in the SE. With a la nina and the historical (last 5-6 winters) propensity for the MJO to slowly rotate thru phases 4-5 and 6, then add in a high solar, spells warm in the SE
 
MichaelJ said:
I don't think there is any way we avoid a very mild winter in the SE. With a la nina and the historical (last 5-6 winters) propensity for the MJO to slowly rotate thru phases 4-5 and 6, then add in a high solar, spells warm in the SE
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Not every time, but most times, when you get a +qbo transition from -qbo and have high solar, actually you get more blocking but we shall see.
 
MichaelJ said:
I don't think there is any way we avoid a very mild winter in the SE. With a la nina and the historical (last 5-6 winters) propensity for the MJO to slowly rotate thru phases 4-5 and 6, then add in a high solar, spells warm in the SE
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Yeah jb done said he expects the mjo be predominantly in phase 4 to 5 most of the winter season coming up
 
About these above-average seasonal outlooks. I remind everyone of the hurricane season near unanimous predictions of a hyperactive season.

The sun hasn't even crossed the equator yet. The truth of the matter is no one knows what the winter holds for us.
 
tennessee storm said:
Yeah jb done said he expects the mjo be predominantly in phase 4 to 5 most of the winter season coming up
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He's going with persistence. Not always the best forecasting approach, but personally, I give it a higher weighting when it comes to winter forecasting. The mjo lives in 4-6 in the winter now.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
About these above-average seasonal outlooks. I remind everyone of the hurricane season near unanimous predictions of a hyperactive season.

The sun hasn't even crossed the equator yet. The truth of the matter is no one knows what the winter holds for us.
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True I mean people thought we'd have a big winter last year and it sucked so I don't put much stock into these predictions

I mean yeah above average temps are probably gonna win out but even as bad as the last two winters have been here we've still had an extremely cold stretch for a week or so

At the end of the day where most of us live is just gonna be a problem. I mean I have a 9 inch climo here and we've had 3 inches in the last two years combined... we just have to hope we get a good pattern for a few days here and there when it matters
 
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Brent said:
True I mean people thought we'd have a big winter last year and it sucked so I don't put much stock into these predictions

I mean yeah above average temps are probably gonna win out but even as bad as the last two winters have been here we've still had an extremely cold stretch for a week or so

At the end of the day where most of us live is just gonna be a problem. I mean I have a 9 inch climo here and we've had 3 inches in the last two years combined... we just have to hope we get a good pattern for a few days here and there when it matters
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I agree Brent. Try to cash in if we can get a few weeks of cold and moisture. Our average is 5 inches snow here, which is just a little less than your area. I've said this before that if we are to get a cold pattern, it will come down to -epo/wpo combo. That can lead to real cold.
 
itryatmanysportsespgolf70 said:
I agree Brent. Try to cash in if we can get a few weeks of cold and moisture. Our average is 5 inches snow here, which is just a little less than your area. I've said this before that if we are to get a cold pattern, it will come down to -epo/wpo combo. That can lead to real cold.
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Honestly I don't even want real cold. We barely had any snow when it was so cold.

Give me 25-30 and heavy rates any day over that. That's why I was so mad over the donut hole in February that would have been the perfect storm but like all last winter besides the week in January there was no cold air
 
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