JHS
Member
That winter and spring were crazy in the Carolinas. Warm, then icy, then back to warm, then quickly to snow. Then May 5 brought a tornado outbreak in the piedmont of both states.
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Summertime 30mb zonal wind correlation w/ the EP/NP pattern, a proxy for the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO).
Here positive/westerly zonal wind (warm colors) is positively correlated w/ the EP/NP (which translates to the negative phase of the EPO).
This means that a westerly QBO (especially in a La Niña), like this year favors more high-latitude blocking in/around Alaska/a -EPO.
Here's the contemporary correlation between Dec-Mar 50mb zonal wind & Dec-Mar EP/NH pattern.
Notice the lower stratosphere westerly QBO here.
EP/NP pattern
Here positive/westerly zonal wind (warm colors) is positively correlated w/ the EP/NP (which translates to the negative phase of the EPO).
This means that a westerly QBO (especially in a La Niña), like this year favors more high-latitude blocking in/around Alaska/a -EPO.
Here's the contemporary correlation between Dec-Mar 50mb zonal wind & Dec-Mar EP/NH pattern.
Notice the lower stratosphere westerly QBO here.
EP/NP pattern
I've posted before about the la nina year 1996. That was a great winter for many of us. It was a weak la nina (which is what we want), but there were other critical factors listed here (..which is outside of my knowledge):
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
It was definitely cold shots for sure. We had a monster ice storm/sleet storm begging of Feb 96 here in Mid South, but it got so cold so quick that most of it was to our south and east.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
If anyone is interested, bamwx has a YouTube video called WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAYS that posts every Wednesday. They talk about the upcoming winter and indicators that lead them to go one way or the other in terms of what will more than likely unfold this winter.
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
Stormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter
. He said it happened the last five winters
. He said it happened the last five winters
Stormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter
itryatmanysportsespgolf70 (wow, impressive name..it takes up half a line and makes me laugh!)
Except for the -NAO of 20-21.
Chuck knows his leading indicators! He clearly wants a +NAO in Oct.
Brent
Member
I will say it does seem like snow is ahead of schedule in some areas
Now whether that's good or not I dunno because early cold has done us no good like ive said before. It's such a double edge sword because everyone wants it to get cold and then we waste it like last year
Now whether that's good or not I dunno because early cold has done us no good like ive said before. It's such a double edge sword because everyone wants it to get cold and then we waste it like last year
Sounds promising. He's calling for an eastern Pacific la nina, which is what 95-96 was. Just shows this winter may not end up a torch.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Does the summer Northern Annular Mode (NAM)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) & North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have any predictive power for the following winter?
Actually yes.
The positive phase of the AO/NAO in summer (which we saw a lot of this year) significantly favors more high latitude blocking over the North Pacific during the following winter.
Here’s the 500mb correlation pattern for winters after a summer positive NAO and AO. Areas shaded are significant at the 95% level.
Notice how closely this pattern resembles the WPO & EPO
Actually yes.
The positive phase of the AO/NAO in summer (which we saw a lot of this year) significantly favors more high latitude blocking over the North Pacific during the following winter.
Here’s the 500mb correlation pattern for winters after a summer positive NAO and AO. Areas shaded are significant at the 95% level.
Notice how closely this pattern resembles the WPO & EPO
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here’s the Jul-Aug-Sep SST correlation to the following winter’s -WPO, areas shaded are statistically significant.
This year has a lot of the right elements here. An east-based La Niña, subtle +SSTa near 150W, and even captures the cooling over the Arabian Sea to an extent. Curious to see how this looks in a month or two.
This year has a lot of the right elements here. An east-based La Niña, subtle +SSTa near 150W, and even captures the cooling over the Arabian Sea to an extent. Curious to see how this looks in a month or two.
Met1985
Member
I'm really not sure about this. I've seen so many things that are supposed to be leading factors but end up being nothing really. Especially when it comes to the NAO...Stormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter
We should have never had four weekends in a row a couple years ago in North Carolina with snow
Maybe it was 3 years ago I can't even remember
Lmao we already suck!
Even when we are in the blue we still suck so I take it with a grain of sno…I mean salt.
Brent
Member
I mean... Is it really news at this point? Even though we had one of our coldest days ever(top 5 or 6) last winter we still torched...
It's just the easy prediction