Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

[JHS]

13-14 was great here, especially from late January on. 88-89 looks good just looking at the snowfall that season… within a week of each other mid to late February after a small system in mid December. Between that though was an absolute torch

That winter and spring were crazy in the Carolinas. Warm, then icy, then back to warm, then quickly to snow. Then May 5 brought a tornado outbreak in the piedmont of both states.

 

[Webberweather53]

Summertime 30mb zonal wind correlation w/ the EP/NP pattern, a proxy for the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO).

Here positive/westerly zonal wind (warm colors) is positively correlated w/ the EP/NP (which translates to the negative phase of the EPO).

This means that a westerly QBO (especially in a La Niña), like this year favors more high-latitude blocking in/around Alaska/a -EPO.





Here's the contemporary correlation between Dec-Mar 50mb zonal wind & Dec-Mar EP/NH pattern.

Notice the lower stratosphere westerly QBO here.



EP/NP pattern

 

[FallsLake]

I've posted before about the la nina year 1996. That was a great winter for many of us. It was a weak la nina (which is what we want), but there were other critical factors listed here (..which is outside of my knowledge):

CPC: SPECIAL CLIMATE SUMMARY-96/1: CLIMATE CONDITIONS DURING THE 1995-96 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER:

 

[itryatmanysportsespgolf70]

I've posted before about the la nina year 1996. That was a great winter for many of us. It was a weak la nina (which is what we want), but there were other critical factors listed here (..which is outside of my knowledge):

CPC: SPECIAL CLIMATE SUMMARY-96/1: CLIMATE CONDITIONS DURING THE 1995-96 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER:

It was definitely cold shots for sure. We had a monster ice storm/sleet storm begging of Feb 96 here in Mid South, but it got so cold so quick that most of it was to our south and east.

 

[itryatmanysportsespgolf70]

If anyone is interested, bamwx has a YouTube video called WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAYS that posts every Wednesday. They talk about the upcoming winter and indicators that lead them to go one way or the other in terms of what will more than likely unfold this winter.

 

[itryatmanysportsespgolf70]

Stormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter. He said it happened the last five winters

 

[GaWx]

Stormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter. He said it happened the last five winters

itryatmanysportsespgolf70 (wow, impressive name..it takes up half a line and makes me laugh!)

Except for the -NAO of 20-21.

Chuck knows his leading indicators! He clearly wants a +NAO in Oct.

 

[Brent]

I will say it does seem like snow is ahead of schedule in some areas

Now whether that's good or not I dunno because early cold has done us no good like ive said before. It's such a double edge sword because everyone wants it to get cold and then we waste it like last year

 

[CaryWx]

If anyone is interested, bamwx has a YouTube video called WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAYS that posts every Wednesday. They talk about the upcoming winter and indicators that lead them to go one way or the other in terms of what will more than likely unfold this winter.

 

[FallsLake]

Sounds promising. He's calling for an eastern Pacific la nina, which is what 95-96 was. Just shows this winter may not end up a torch.

 

[Webberweather53]

Does the summer Northern Annular Mode (NAM)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) & North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have any predictive power for the following winter?

Actually yes.

The positive phase of the AO/NAO in summer (which we saw a lot of this year) significantly favors more high latitude blocking over the North Pacific during the following winter.

Here’s the 500mb correlation pattern for winters after a summer positive NAO and AO. Areas shaded are significant at the 95% level.





Notice how closely this pattern resembles the WPO & EPO

 

[Webberweather53]

Here’s the Jul-Aug-Sep SST correlation to the following winter’s -WPO, areas shaded are statistically significant.

This year has a lot of the right elements here. An east-based La Niña, subtle +SSTa near 150W, and even captures the cooling over the Arabian Sea to an extent. Curious to see how this looks in a month or two.

 

[Chazwin]

That winter and spring were crazy in the Carolinas. Warm, then icy, then back to warm, then quickly to snow. Then May 5 brought a tornado outbreak in the piedmont of both states.

I seem to remember in mid March that year there was also I very hard cold snap. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 20s in CLT

 

[Met1985]

Stormchaserchuck at American Weather says that if we get a -nao in October, it almost guarantees a +nao in winter. He said it happened the last five winters

I'm really not sure about this. I've seen so many things that are supposed to be leading factors but end up being nothing really. Especially when it comes to the NAO...

 

[Bham 99]

We should have never had four weekends in a row a couple years ago in North Carolina with snow

 

[Bham 99]

We should have never had four weekends in a row a couple years ago in North Carolina with snow

Maybe it was 3 years ago I can't even remember

 

[CaryWx]

BAM weather with a decent cast for winter...for now anyway

Realizing we are still in mid-Sept.