Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

Iceagewhereartthou · 2024-09-19T23:58:07-0400

Dreams:

Reality:

GaWx · 2024-09-20T00:12:54-0400

jrips27 said:
Lmao we already suck!

With La Nina and a very strong -PDO likely, I’d be surprised if the SE isn’t warmer than last winter’s mainly near to modestly warmer than normal. The best shot at BN is typically in the N US with that combo. Odds are very good the NE and especially the Midwest won’t be as warm as the torch that they had up there last winter.

iGRXY · 2024-09-20T14:05:56-0400

If you get the -PNA/-NAO combo to rear it's head go ahead and get ready for a bunch of low 40 degree cloudy and rainy days in the future.

Webberweather53 · 2024-09-20T15:00:08-0400

For all my climate dynamics peeps, NOAA ESRL has recently released a version of the OLR MJO Index (OMI) that utilizes ERA-5 reanalysis & goes back to 1940!

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/omi.era5.1x.webpage.4023.txt

GoDuke · 2024-09-20T15:34:15-0400

Here. Farmer’s Almanac. Zone 4.

LickWx · 2024-09-20T18:20:47-0400

GoDuke said:
Here. Farmer’s Almanac. Zone 4. View attachment 151353

Whatttt almost every month of the year below average, who coulda seen that coming!

GoDuke · 2024-09-20T19:08:20-0400

LickWx said:
Whatttt almost every month of the year below average, who coulda seen that coming!

Feb 19-26 has my interest peaked!

SD · 2024-09-20T19:32:16-0400

Chazwin · 2024-09-20T19:42:39-0400

SD said:
View attachment 151364

Ahh memories

itryatmanysportsespgolf70 · 2024-09-20T20:11:23-0400

Chazwin said:
Ahh memories

We got a big snow storm ourself in the mid south a few days prior. Places in central and south Arkansas received 12-23inches but dry air forced most of it south of us

itryatmanysportsespgolf70 · 2024-09-20T20:21:50-0400

GaWx said:
With La Nina and a very strong -PDO likely, I’d be surprised if the SE isn’t warmer than last winter’s mainly near to modestly warmer than normal. The best shot at BN is typically in the N US with that combo. Odds are very good the NE and especially the Midwest won’t be as warm as the torch that they had up there last winter.

Larry, if the Aleutian ridge is flat this winter, meaning not poleward, we will be extremely warm here. However, if it's more poleward, I think big cold shots will come down, especially if we get the -epo/wpo couplet imo. What was interesting is that last winters niño, which is typically backloaded, was colder early on and progressed warmer later in winter.