Released Wednesday, August 25, 2021:
“La Niña Influenced Pattern
Cold Signal In Northwest; Warm Leaning South GWHDDs Between 10- and 30-Year Normal
December - February
The initial Maxar forecast calls for a La Niña influenced pattern this win- ter, with below normal temperatures in the Northwest and above normal readings in the South. The East Coast is near normal overall but carries slightly above normal temperatures in February. Historically, La Niña in winter is associated with a pattern of –PNA characteristics, with a cold trough over the Northwest and a warm ridge over the South. As is typical of a La Niña-influenced pattern, convective enhancement should focus nearby Indonesia in the west-tropical Pacific, where sea surface tempera- tures were measured as record warm in July and preceded by records from January-April. Further enhancement of the convective forcing should result from the region. The Atlantic basin remains in its long term warm phase (i.e. +AMO), which is a general warm signal also contrib- uting to the forecast.”
Surprisingly, they have the SE only about +1 F for DJF averaged.