Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Speaking of the CFS...
Here comes a big MJO wave into the Indian Ocean in late Dec... or not.
Here comes a big MJO wave into the Indian Ocean in late Dec... or not.
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
What will the implications be for the SE with that Mjo wave?
GEFS seems to think we are heading into ph4-6. Isn't this kind of expected though? IO dies down as we get into January?
From Maxar this morning: warning that due to -GLAAM persistence there's a realistic chance that SER dominates again this winter (though hopefully not real bad like last winter):
"Globally Averaged Angular Momentum (GLAAM) is a measure of the global wind pattern. Historically, the GLAAM has been influenced by the oceanic state of ENSO, with its positive phase associated with El Niño events and its negative phase with La Niña. While this is not always the case, GLAAM is often referenced as an atmospheric response to ENSO. This has not been the case in recent months, as the equatorial Pacific has been in an ENSO-Neutral to weak El Niño state. Yet, the GLAAM has been negative since July including record negative in October, and it stays negative in the forecast for the next 15 days. The GLAAM has statistical support to stay negative into January, with an anomaly correlation from December to January a significant +0.62. This brings a risk for a warmer Southeast ridge response and a mid-atmospheric pattern not dissimilar than that projected by today’s ECMWF Monthly model (not shown)."
"Globally Averaged Angular Momentum (GLAAM) is a measure of the global wind pattern. Historically, the GLAAM has been influenced by the oceanic state of ENSO, with its positive phase associated with El Niño events and its negative phase with La Niña. While this is not always the case, GLAAM is often referenced as an atmospheric response to ENSO. This has not been the case in recent months, as the equatorial Pacific has been in an ENSO-Neutral to weak El Niño state. Yet, the GLAAM has been negative since July including record negative in October, and it stays negative in the forecast for the next 15 days. The GLAAM has statistical support to stay negative into January, with an anomaly correlation from December to January a significant +0.62. This brings a risk for a warmer Southeast ridge response and a mid-atmospheric pattern not dissimilar than that projected by today’s ECMWF Monthly model (not shown)."
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Aleeeeeeeeeeeeeet
SnowNiner
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I'm confused, does he mean Autumn of 2018? Is he comparing last year to this year's seasonal? IIRC, ALL the seasonals showed a cold winter and all busted last year. I don't recall them flipping but I could be wrong. Not sure how them flipping this year means anything.
I think the only thing that's had any bit of long term accuracy is the end of the month CFSv2. It showed torch for December and it looks like it may bust too warm (we'll see). So I'm taking any seasonal long range guidance with a mountain of salt. I'm latching on to HM's IOD convection death, western hemisphere, phase 8-2 MJO mountain torque, TMNT, Scandinavian Ridge = -NAO blocking as our hope for this year. Yeah I don't understand it, but that's all I got.
I think it means autumn 2018 flipped at the last minute and I do remember that happening. The were consistently showing a cold winter ‘18-‘19 and then did a complete flip at the same time this opposite flip is occurring this year
Tarheel1
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Fab Feb!??
NoSnowATL
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Interesting "Bleaklies" release yesterday in that it is colder in the Bleaks that go into January (bleaks 5 and 6)(and also colder vs last Thursday''s Bleaks) with a nice +PNA piggybacking on @Arcc's theme. Bleaks 5 & 6, which were warmer than normal on the prior release, are now near normal. To get near normal Bleaks for weeks 5 and 6 as opposed to warmer than normal is not an easy task. @pcbjr may especially find this interesting.
IOD is tanking quickly, right on time 
Do we want + or - IOD lol i can't keep track
I just saw that Webb posted that chart this morning lol, but anyways the fact that it’s tanking helps us out as we close out December into January, but that IOD was anomalously positive, no wonder why Australia has been dealing with such a bad drought
In January, the +IOD is a cold signal in the Rockies/Plains, where it indeed has been cold especially north, but the correlation in the E and SE US is very small/neutral.
If I’m not mistaken It does have correlations to causing ninioish conditions aswell when it’s positive, IOD is still kinda something I’m not 100% familiar with
I'm sure this is just meant for the NE:
Tarheel1
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What’s BAM say?
Why are you posting this in the Whamby thread? This looks really good. I'm going to move it. 2m temps and 850s are cold at D10 too!
Joe D'Aleo on Southeast update yesterday! Hang on grasshopper.............................. 
When the stratosphere has its warming, the trough should anchor to the east and cold should develop.
January to March Anomalies
When the stratosphere has its warming, the trough should anchor to the east and cold should develop.
January to March Anomalies
What's up Big Frosty! Would that, by any chance, be the Pioneer model?Joe D'Aleo on Southeast update yesterday! Hang on grasshopper..............................
When the stratosphere has its warming, the trough should anchor to the east and cold should develop.
View attachment 27944
January to March Anomalies
It may be he didn't say! But the last time I seen him post the Pioneer model (which it's been a while) it DID look a lot like this for same time period! lol
Haha, you know it's rough when they're rolling out the Pioneer and the Deep Thunder and the Brazilian (which, I don't think we've seen that one pulled so far this year?).
Haven't looked at these in a while. But it seems quite rare to see actual negative values in our future in the winter.
BHS1975
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It’s starting way higher than last year though before dropping.
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NoSnowATL
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In this age of GW, here's something encouraging for the upcoming January: since 2000 and even just since 2010 Jan in the SE US has somehow averaged about the same as Jans 1895-1999! It is like January is on a climo island because no other month since 2000/2010 has been about the same vs pre 2000 even though November is not too far off:
Looking at KATL, specifically, check these stats out for each month when comparing the 2010s, alone, vs 1895-2010s:
JAN: +0.6 (best and keep in mind that this 0.6 could easily be due to airport related warming)
FEB: +2.9 (3rd worst)
MAR: +2.4
APR: +2.7
MAY: +2.5
JUN: +2.4
JUL: +2.1
AUG: +2.2
SEP: +3.1 (2nd worst)
OCT: +2.7
NOV: +1.2 (2nd best)
DEC: +3.8 (worst)
So, JAN and, to a lesser extent, NOV stand out as having had the least warming. What's even more interesting is that those 2 months surround the worst month, Dec!
Looking at KATL, specifically, check these stats out for each month when comparing the 2010s, alone, vs 1895-2010s:
JAN: +0.6 (best and keep in mind that this 0.6 could easily be due to airport related warming)
FEB: +2.9 (3rd worst)
MAR: +2.4
APR: +2.7
MAY: +2.5
JUN: +2.4
JUL: +2.1
AUG: +2.2
SEP: +3.1 (2nd worst)
OCT: +2.7
NOV: +1.2 (2nd best)
DEC: +3.8 (worst)
So, JAN and, to a lesser extent, NOV stand out as having had the least warming. What's even more interesting is that those 2 months surround the worst month, Dec!
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Webberweather53
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A climo island is certainly a great way to describe the recent interannual-interdecadal variability esp for months like Nov, Jan, & even Mar.
ghost1
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Look at that Cat 2 hurricane in Vermont on tonight's GFS run out in LaLa land!
Obvious shift with the GEFS with a better pac ridge and in response the TPV has been headed south 
That progression is fantastic. Hope it continues.Obvious shift with the GEFS with a better pac ridge and in response the TPV has been headed south
Jon
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CFS with a decent example of the North American Winter Temperature Dipole for January 2020. Would result in a cold East coast and possibly stormy.
This is a composite from NAWTD events 1980-2015
We saw something similar in 2017, of course this had strong blocking but I’d assume some would materialize with this pattern.
And yes it means cold AND stormy. We had a storm that year on Dec 9, impacting the mountains the most, and foothills/piedmont.
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This is a composite from NAWTD events 1980-2015
We saw something similar in 2017, of course this had strong blocking but I’d assume some would materialize with this pattern.
And yes it means cold AND stormy. We had a storm that year on Dec 9, impacting the mountains the most, and foothills/piedmont.
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CFS with a decent example of the North American Winter Temperature Dipole for January 2020. Would result in a cold East coast and possibly stormy.
This is a composite from NAWTD events 1980-2015
We saw something similar in 2017, of course this had strong blocking but I’d assume some would materialize with this pattern.
And yes it means cold AND stormy. We had a storm that year on Dec 9, impacting the mountains the most, and foothills/piedmont.
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Can't forget the southern crusher in the 8th of that year. Really good look to me.
NoSnowATL
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I don’t like seeing this!
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pcbjr
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then don't look ...
I don’t like seeing this!
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NoSnowATL
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