• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Snowfan

Snowfan

When NW trend?
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,178
Reaction score
9,405
Location
Not telling
Thought it was time to start the thread. It looks like we could be in neutral this winter.
 
Another mild winter averaged out with SE ridge domination is likely. The trend is your friend. The warm ocean in combo with GW help make this likely to verify correctly. Regardless, I predict it will still be way more comfortable and therefore way more enjoyable than the summer. I expect there will still be a few short periods of intense cold as is almost always the case, which will make things interesting on occasion.

I also predict with even higher confidence that JB (and others) will predict cold and that that forecast will fail miserably.

I predict KATL will end up around 2-4F warmer than the 30 year normal or near 47-49 for DJF. There may be one major ZR or sleet threat if ENSO cools to cold neutral. There will be no major snows though they’ll be teased as usual with a threat or two. In addition to any possible sleet, I predict 0.4” of snow. So, it will be much snowier than last winter’s shutout but still well below the long term average near 2”. The northside will average near 1” of snow.
 
Last edited:
ATL Predictions
Dec: 3-5F above average, 0" of snow
Jan: 2-4F above average, 0.2" of snow
Feb: 3-5F above average, 0" of snow
Mar: Spring

Overall, another horrid winter plagued by a +NAO. The biggest winner in the SE will be TN. The biggest loser will be the Midlands of SC.
 
GSP gets 200% of normal snowfall! So about 12”, from another December snowstorm! Frontloaded and backloaded!
 
My guess which will be wrong I'm sure for N metro ATL.

D - Above normal temps, average precip. No snow.
J - Slight below normal temps with below average precip. Dusting at best.
F - Average temps, average precip, small 1 to 4 inch snow event early in the month.
M - warming with lingering winter.

I think there will be something in the North Metro area this year. For the Carolinas, Mountain areas definitely will get something, and the west half as well. Probably have an RDU split on the only possible storm. Probably another I-40 special sometime in January. I don't thing any -NAO's with impact will happen. There should be a few +PNA events to watch for but I'm not sure when and if they'll produce. In general, probably going to be a slightly warmer winter in the SE as a whole with a couple small snow events outside the mountains.
 
CLT will get 3 inches of snow this winter, ATL gets 0.5, GSO gets 10”, RAH gets 7”, BAM gets 2.4”, CAE gets T-0.2, CHS gets lucky with a coastal and gets 1.3, random but basically similar to what’s happened these past years
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
CLT will get 3 inches of snow this winter, ATL gets 0.5, GSO gets 10”, RAH gets 7”, BAM gets 2.4”, CAE gets T-0.2, CHS gets lucky with a coastal and gets 1.3, random but basically similar to what’s happened these past years
Click to expand...
How much for mby!???????
 
Even if we end up slightly warmer than average that will seem chilly compared to last winter. If we don't score one good storm this coming winter I would expect one the year after. That has been the trend after a non winter year like last year.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Think 03/04 was a Niña, it rocked!
Click to expand...
We can usually work a clipper in during a northern stream dominant winter. Hard to get frozen to fall with the Southern stream dumping hot air on you for 4 straight months. I’ll take my chances with a Niña for sure
 
I think it will be a Neutral ENSO year with normal temps and below normal precip until late Feb/March. Snow will be hard to come by outside the mountains but Ice will be a nuisance several times north of Ga.
 
Just a Avg winter here in ATL would be a win. I am looking forward to being missed to my north, east, south and west again with 2-3 32.6 degrees rain events.
Snowfall totals 0.1
Ice totals 0.1
Cold rain totals 4-9 inches.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Y'all, I live in Maggie Valley NC and the winters here have sucked lately! Yeah, got our 13 in Dec storm then maybe 2in rest of the way. Idk, we use to average 20+ easy back in the day. However, remember playing bball in shorts in jan as well. 09/10 here was epic! Holy Wow! Snow didn't melt on Northside till April!. Take that again, please
 
Saw this from Ben Noll. Looks about right Lol. However seasonal models have proven to be horrible in regards to verifying.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Saw this from Ben Noll. Looks about right Lol. However seasonal models have proven to be horrible in regards to verifying.
Click to expand...


Go with the warmth. Don’t fight reality. The trend is your friend. Models are, indeed, often wrong because they often have had it cold when it turned out mild. Not so much the other way. There’s been a cold bias overall due to too much ridging out west and too much troughing in the east. A model actually showing ridging in the east is obviously quite believable. Expecting another overall mild winter with confidence. Confidence is increased even further if we don’t have El Niño.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Go with the warmth. Don’t fight reality. The trend is your friend. Models are, indeed, often wrong because they often have had it cold when it turned out mild. Not so much the other way. Expecting another overall mild winter with confidence. Confidence is increased even further if we don’t have El Niño.
Click to expand...
If the only thing that said no snow was the devil it would be the one and only time he would be right. LOL
 
My prediction for RDU:
December - 0" snowfall, +3F above average
January - 2.6" snowfall, +1F above average
February - 0.6" snowfall, +4F above average

Hard to predict against December being warmer than normal for the 9th straight year. Last year's December snowfall was quite unusual so I'm going to go with a shutout for December. January likely won't be snowless again, so I'm going with one moderate event in January. Maybe one small event in February with sleet/ZR before mild weather sets in during the second half of the month.

This is based on gut feeling more than anything, and is not based off models.
 
Big announcement from me tonight. I fully believe spring will quickly happen during late to maybe even mid winter southern Charlotte NC to Columbia SC and parts of Wake County NC. Winter will still be present February/March for northern foothills into Boone.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Big announcement from me tonight. I fully believe spring will quickly happen during late to maybe even mid winter southern Charlotte NC to Columbia SC and parts of Wake County NC. Winter will still be present February/March for northern foothills into Boone.
Click to expand...
That sounds like par for the course, bird bro
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Big announcement from me tonight. I fully believe spring will quickly happen during late to maybe even mid winter southern Charlotte NC to Columbia SC and parts of Wake County NC. Winter will still be present February/March for northern foothills into Boone.
Click to expand...
Man It’s gonna suck, my next door neighbor might be on the spring side of wake county while I’m on the winter . Bird any indications where the lines will set up? Departures on either side of these arbitrarily drawn lines ? What is winter ? Explain! Negative anomalies ? Normal temps ? What is spring ! Man forecasters will struggle with this
 
I feel like this thread gets earlier every year lol. Talking winter in July!? Not complaining, I love it!

In any event, way too early to call enso but it appears neutral to weak Niño is most probable. Nina appears out of the cards. I’ll take a neutral year any day.

450cc99fc29b4e7eac184398610238ac.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CyclonicFury said:
My prediction for RDU:
December - 0" snowfall, +3F above average
January - 2.6" snowfall, +1F above average
February - 0.6" snowfall, +4F above average

Hard to predict against December being warmer than normal for the 9th straight year. Last year's December snowfall was quite unusual so I'm going to go with a shutout for December. January likely won't be snowless again, so I'm going with one moderate event in January. Maybe one small event in February with sleet/ZR before mild weather sets in during the second half of the month.

This is based on gut feeling more than anything, and is not based off models.
Click to expand...
Can't argue here.

Was kicking the tires on something like +5-7 for December 0-+2 Jan +3-5 for Feb -2-4 for Mar

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
I feel like this thread gets earlier every year lol. Talking winter in July!? Not complaining, I love it!

In any event, way too early to call enso but it appears neutral to weak Niño is most probable. Nina appears out of the cards. I’ll take a neutral year any day.

450cc99fc29b4e7eac184398610238ac.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Take my chances with a weak Niña any day ... El Niño’s mostly boring winters. ... just wet
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top