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Tropical TS Fred

Regards to TS Fred today... some personal thoughts...

Definitely mixed signals...
Do I think Fred Strengthens? Yes, but only gradually. Noted in most current visible satellite loops are new hot towers going up on the Eastern side of the LLC obscuring the LLC.

However, with that said, yesterday, we completely saw Fred open into a wave... today...this afternoon, all of a sudden we have a large circulation that spans quite a bit of real estate.. check out the SW feed even as far south as off the Western Shores of Cuba... NW Quadrant of Fred still can see arcus clouds and outflow boundaries on that side.

Quite frankly... I don't think Fred can consolidate and contract his geographical scope down in its relatively short window to see a significant strengthen in winds.. but heavy rains on the other hand...
 
Lickwx said:
Lol east vs west . Everyone arguing cuz they want this lil turd they call a tropical storm ! Y’all can have it I want the big one !
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Barring something wild happening with convection (rapid gain/loss) this thing isn't going to have some big change left or right. It's riding the edge of the eroding SE ridge it seems pretty stable imo
 
I think along and maybe east a little of NHC landfall. I feel like the HWRF cloud forecast looks fairly accurate so far .
 
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SD said:
Barring something wild happening with convection (rapid gain/loss) this thing isn't going to have some big change left or right. It's riding the edge of the eroding SE ridge it seems pretty stable imo
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Our forecast got warmer too , wonder if that had to do with the se ridge strengthening and driving this thing and the one behind it further south and west!
 
Lickwx said:
Our forecast got warmer too , wonder if that had to do with the se ridge strengthening and driving this thing and the one behind it further south and west!
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SE ridges never die.

Our biggest threat but particularly for areas west of us will be the confluence of some Atlantic moisture along with the moisture associated with Fred's circulation.gfs_mslp_pwat_us_fh18-66.gif
 
No need to wishcast when there’s a stalled front combing with tropical moisture everyone wins except those too far west (Alabama/Mississippi, maybe northwest Georgia). You want to be well N/E of the center of the storm which will place the biggest totals over the Appalachian chain and just east with sharp drop offs near Iredell/east in the 2-4” or less. 4-8” common in the west with some 8-12” over the upslope areas of NC.
 
The center might be as far west as its gonna get at this point.....on vis the center is not moving much west, looks to be moving almost north since it crossed 26N....this makes sense with a strong eastside type system....also would be more in line with the shear vector and allow more strengthening albeit that would still be limited I think.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
No need to wishcast when there’s a stalled front combing with tropical moisture everyone wins except those too far west (Alabama/Mississippi, maybe northwest Georgia). You want to be well N/E of the center of the storm which will place the biggest totals over the Appalachian chain and just east with sharp drop offs near Iredell/east in the 2-4” or less. 4-8” common in the west with some 8-12” over the upslope areas of NC.
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You actually make a really good point here...
PRE (Precedessor Rain Event) can and often times are capable of producing tremendous amounts of rain well ahead of the "main" show.. lots of times, the PRE actually steals the show.
 
Downeastnc said:
The center might be as far west as its gonna get at this point.....on vis the center is not moving much west, looks to be moving almost north since it crossed 26N....this makes sense with a strong eastside type system....also would be more in line with the shear vector and allow more strengthening albeit that would still be limited I think.
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Convective tugging ... before the blowup occurred, it definitely appeared the LLC was moving just barely west of due N..

Also look at Fred's cloud mass structure... very much orientated N/S in overall structure.
 
Cruso, NC would be ideal place to see 12”. They saw 17” with Ivan. Believe the 6-12” will extend north-east past Sparta, NC into the blue ridge of Virginia.
 
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Stormsfury said:
You actually make a really good point here...
PRE (Precedessor Rain Event) can and often times are capable of producing tremendous amounts of rain well ahead of the "main" show.. lots of times, the PRE actually steals the show.
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You correct about that. My area got into one as Michael was making landfall on the panhandle and that was a full day before the center moved through here. We ended up getting over 4 inches of rain from that when there wasn’t but a 40 percent chance forecasted.
 
Ole Fred is looking rather spiffy this afternoon. With another 24 hours or so before landfall, does the NHC issue hurricane watches or maybe even a warning on the 5 PM update? I thought they might at 11 AM, now I'd be surprised if they don't.
 
30% chance imo very little rain 1-2” or less than that for north west Georgia into extreme south-western NC IF the models were to keep correcting east it wouldn’t take 50 milestone quickly bring the drop off totals.
 
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