Love this Radaromega app so far. This is the new track, was updating as I was drawing on it. lol. They def have to keep correcting short term motion more east if it keeps moving almost due north.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical TS Fred
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Rainforrest
Member
Looks like to southern and eastern escarpment may need a bigger boat.
NHC shifted the track eastward but still west of model consensus after 24 hours:
063
WTNT41 KNHC 152035
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better
organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become
better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with
additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near
the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.
After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have
resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance
shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a
turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of
the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward
motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track
guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models
forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north
motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted
a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west
of the various consensus models.
Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance
continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON
show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on
that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall
intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should
quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley
just after 60 h.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of
southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast
Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From
Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
063
WTNT41 KNHC 152035
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better
organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become
better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with
additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near
the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.
After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have
resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance
shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a
turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of
the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward
motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track
guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models
forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north
motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted
a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west
of the various consensus models.
Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance
continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON
show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on
that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall
intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should
quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley
just after 60 h.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of
southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast
Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From
Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Brent
Member
Given what we’ve seen in guidance today as well as just simply tracking on satellite, I would definitely lean on the east edge of that cone. If it does come up more east, the area of heaviest rainfall may also be expanded further eastward in GA and the Carolinas
Stormsfury
Member
Speaking of PREs, we got into it today with off and on heavy rain and occasional heavy booming thunder during the day..
Picked up about 2" today but KCHS ended up getting walloped... .85" one hour, followed by 2.78" more next hour! Looks like they are close to 4" officially!
Seems like convection blowing up right over the LLC again, Dmax time I suppose.... see if this sustains and helps strengthen it at all. And looks like Recon is heading that way, thank goodness
Doesn't look like it to me
ForsythSnow
Moderator
On the positive side we do have recon heading in rn so we'll see in an hour or so how Fred's doing
NoSnowATL
Member
Jessy89
Member
Rain gage ready for Fred think it will fill up?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BufordWX
Member
Pressure has been falling at this buoy SW of Fred all afternoon even as Fred has been pulling away. No doubt the storm is deepening.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov
NDBC - Station 42003 Recent Data
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42003 (25.925N 85.616W) - East GULF - 208 NM West of Naples, FL.
I think Fred is going to make a run here. Maybe a 65-70 at landfall. And NHC is going to have to adjust east again I think.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Getting some nice towers around the center now from what I can tell with recon closing in. Will see what they find
It's going to have to have more west in the movement than it does to hit that mark.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seeing extrapolated at 1002 on approach to the center, Fred's strengthening
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,660
- Reaction score
- 10,817
Your right I know it does, just having a little fun posting.
998.9 per the recon.
990
URNT15 KNHC 152337
AF305 1406A FRED HDOB 12 20210815
232730 2704N 08543W 8428 01517 0012 +209 +154 323012 013 029 002 00
232800 2705N 08542W 8429 01511 0003 +214 +157 311005 011 024 001 00
232830 2707N 08541W 8441 01495 9989 +232 +152 030011 012 017 001 00
232900 2708N 08540W 8426 01506 9989 +227 +155 115011 014 /// /// 03
232930 2707N 08539W 8422 01515 9996 +223 +145 157015 018 038 001 00
233000 2706N 08537W 8437 01504 0006 +211 +154 167016 018 038 001 00
233030 2705N 08536W 8431 01516 0023 +189 +175 191018 020 036 002 00
233100 2704N 08535W 8433 01520 0031 +185 +176 187021 021 037 002 00
233130 2703N 08534W 8426 01531 0040 +181 +178 195021 022 035 000 01
233200 2702N 08533W 8431 01528 0042 +183 +173 189021 022 035 001 00
233230 2701N 08531W 8430 01531 0043 +184 +161 187022 023 030 002 00
233300 2659N 08530W 8428 01537 0048 +180 +162 185022 022 029 001 00
233330 2658N 08529W 8429 01537 0054 +176 +160 181023 024 029 001 00
233400 2657N 08528W 8429 01538 0055 +177 +155 188023 024 028 000 00
233430 2656N 08527W 8432 01539 0060 +175 +156 186024 024 027 001 00
233500 2655N 08525W 8428 01543 0061 +175 +158 190023 024 026 001 00
233530 2654N 08524W 8430 01542 0063 +174 +159 192023 024 023 001 00
233600 2653N 08523W 8432 01543 0062 +177 +157 191022 023 024 001 00
233630 2652N 08522W 8432 01543 0060 +180 +157 189021 022 023 001 00
233700 2651N 08521W 8429 01545 0061 +180 +161 190022 023 023 001 00
$$
;
998.9 mb per the recon.
990
URNT15 KNHC 152337
AF305 1406A FRED HDOB 12 20210815
232730 2704N 08543W 8428 01517 0012 +209 +154 323012 013 029 002 00
232800 2705N 08542W 8429 01511 0003 +214 +157 311005 011 024 001 00
232830 2707N 08541W 8441 01495 9989 +232 +152 030011 012 017 001 00
232900 2708N 08540W 8426 01506 9989 +227 +155 115011 014 /// /// 03
232930 2707N 08539W 8422 01515 9996 +223 +145 157015 018 038 001 00
233000 2706N 08537W 8437 01504 0006 +211 +154 167016 018 038 001 00
233030 2705N 08536W 8431 01516 0023 +189 +175 191018 020 036 002 00
233100 2704N 08535W 8433 01520 0031 +185 +176 187021 021 037 002 00
233130 2703N 08534W 8426 01531 0040 +181 +178 195021 022 035 000 01
233200 2702N 08533W 8431 01528 0042 +183 +173 189021 022 035 001 00
233230 2701N 08531W 8430 01531 0043 +184 +161 187022 023 030 002 00
233300 2659N 08530W 8428 01537 0048 +180 +162 185022 022 029 001 00
233330 2658N 08529W 8429 01537 0054 +176 +160 181023 024 029 001 00
233400 2657N 08528W 8429 01538 0055 +177 +155 188023 024 028 000 00
233430 2656N 08527W 8432 01539 0060 +175 +156 186024 024 027 001 00
233500 2655N 08525W 8428 01543 0061 +175 +158 190023 024 026 001 00
233530 2654N 08524W 8430 01542 0063 +174 +159 192023 024 023 001 00
233600 2653N 08523W 8432 01543 0062 +177 +157 191022 023 024 001 00
233630 2652N 08522W 8432 01543 0060 +180 +157 189021 022 023 001 00
233700 2651N 08521W 8429 01545 0061 +180 +161 190022 023 023 001 00
$$
;
998.9 mb per the recon.
If those hot towers keep firing, could make a run.
If those pressures posted above are right, it's definitely making a run
Brent
Member
Gonna be crazy if it tries to be a hurricane after all the struggles
Should be noted Elsa was a hurricane with a pressure in this range
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Recon official drop is 1000 mb, might be 1 higher than extrap but still, that's a 7 mb drop since earlier.
Jessy89
Member
Could we see a 60mph storm by 11? I’m thinking so
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It's in like a little window to the coast where shear has really dropped off
And this time the storms are firing on all sides. Looks like an almost due north motion
Jessy89
Member
I really do think the cap is a 75mph cane. But my goodness did anyone expect this to look like it has today? Could Fred have a few more surprises? 
still think the biggest story will be flooding rains but if I’m in Florida panhandle I’d be preparing like Fred a cat 2.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
still think the biggest story will be flooding rains but if I’m in Florida panhandle I’d be preparing like Fred a cat 2.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Stormsfury
Member
Fred must have ingested bath water from the Gulf Loop Current. I did NOT expect a 7mb drop in just a few hours...
Downeastnc
Member
recon should sample the NE quad this pass, so far this is still a 45 mph storm.....cant believe that damn radar is down lol
snowlover91
Member
Warmer waters are ahead for Fred as well.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
rain saturated reading, likely a thunderstorm around the outer edges
Thank you for the correction, I'll delete the post.
DadOfJax
Member
With the center of this heading up into central AL, the eastern half of AL should see the best of what Fred has to offer.