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Tropical TS Fred

hmon_mslp_uv850_06L_37.pngFWIW, HMON is consistent with a western FL Panhandle LF. Little stronger this run also. If I recall this model done good on past storms
 
Some preliminary bands ahead of Fred have finally made it to SE Florida, and a stronger one just offshore. There's lightening off the Coast from my East facing wind, and occasional flashes from the wave that just passed. Dogs are huddled in the corner like a bunch of b####es. Highest winds gust was 34.

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Yuck, no storms anywhere near the center.....Fred needs to do something soon....the GFS has been nailing storms this year and if this thing falls apart it will be another win for the GFS....

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BHS1975 said:
Could it reform under that southern blowup?


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It would practically be a new system at that point, the LLC is well NW of that.....

The current center is in the red circle....or maybe even a little NW of there its tough to tell without visible images

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bigstick10 said:
LOL, OMG, to an untrained eye one would think that blob is Fred..
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It might end up as Fred. Recon is otw and the first visible images are coming soon. Will be interesting to see if the llc is elongated back to the blob or if the blob may be trying to take over all together. Thing is though Fred has done this a few times in is life cycle where it forms deep convection down shear from the llc but the llc has continued to motor along as the storms collapse behind it
 
SD said:
It might end up as Fred. Recon is otw and the first visible images are coming soon. Will be interesting to see if the llc is elongated back to the blob or if the blob may be trying to take over all together. Thing is though Fred has done this a few times in is life cycle where it forms deep convection down shear from the llc but the llc has continued to motor along as the storms collapse behind it
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It's Wilma lol.


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SD said:
Yep looks like whatever reflection of a llc that is left is making landfall in Cuba as well
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Yep, right there barely and as you already stated, what a mess. Also looks like the thunderstorm cluster to the S/SE is starting to weaken, who knows what the day will bring with this, all kinds of options on the table

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metwannabe said:
Yep, right there barely and as you already stated, what a mess. Also looks like the thunderstorm cluster to the S/SE is starting to weaken, who knows what the day will bring with this, all kinds of options on the table

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Yeah at this point it's like where does the next cluster of storms form. Most models seem consistent that a new cluster of storms will get going to the E and NE of what's left of the llc and that's what will take over. Hard to believe a lot right now given how it's gone so far
 
06 GFS almost spot on with location, actually has it as an open wave later today/tonight (very close now) then tries to redevelop something Sunday morning with a weak system into Panhandle of Fl. Monday.

Btw, who broke the GFS?
 
SD said:
Yeah at this point it's like where does the next cluster of storms form. Most models seem consistent that a new cluster of storms will get going to the E and NE of what's left of the llc and that's what will take over. Hard to believe a lot right now given how it's gone so far
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I'm actually surprised and impressed the LLC has held on as long as it has but really seems to finally be running out of steam. I see this as an open wave later today and right, where does the next cluster form to try to regenerate a llc. We need a poll (put some money on it lol)
 
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