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Tropical TS Fred

deltadog03 said:
yesterday the hwrf actually showed this opening up today only to have a hurricane at SFL and into the EGOM after that.....I do agree....this looks like hell.
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Yeah. Someone posted that on another forum. Current Satellite looks similar to yesterdays HWRF.
 

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I see a few models already shifting west. Mobile/Pcola not out of the question
 
Tropical storm watch for the keys and southern florida.
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 75.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
FROM FFC, KATL:

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Tropical Depression Fred continues to move up the NNE coastline
of Cuba and is forecast by the NHC to slide up the western Florida
peninsula coastline before making landfall in the Central Florida
panhandle. Models are fairly consistent with the storm track up
until that point with several hurricane models now less optimistic
about storm intensity, though this still remains one of the
hardest things to forecast about a tropical system so that's very
subject to change. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes
landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a
developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This
trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path
around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts
to the right of the track, affectionately call the ''dirty'' side of
the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches
with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia
seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Noticeably, the GFS is
not one of these solutions which instead greatly weakens the storm
and pushes it further west. This all to say, their Is still a
great amount of uncertainty with this system so we ask our
audience to please current with the latest information as it
comes available.
 
bigstick10 said:
FROM FFC, KATL:

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Tropical Depression Fred continues to move up the NNE coastline
of Cuba and is forecast by the NHC to slide up the western Florida
peninsula coastline before making landfall in the Central Florida
panhandle. Models are fairly consistent with the storm track up
until that point with several hurricane models now less optimistic
about storm intensity, though this still remains one of the
hardest things to forecast about a tropical system so that's very
subject to change. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes
landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a
developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This
trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path
around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts
to the right of the track, affectionately call the ''dirty'' side of
the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches
with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia
seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Noticeably, the GFS is
not one of these solutions which instead greatly weakens the storm
and pushes it further west. This all to say, their Is still a
great amount of uncertainty with this system so we ask our
audience to please current with the latest information as it
comes available.
Click to expand...
I can't take this anymore. Keep moving westward or weaken please. Atlanta does not need this!
 
Hard to believe Birmingham NWS says very little or no impact across AL from Fred given the track. I guess 100% of the impacts will be east of the center.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Hard to believe Birmingham NWS says very little or no impact across AL from Fred given the track. I guess 100% of the impacts will be east of the center.
Click to expand...
Always worse East and north of the center. West Georgia might not see a lot either. It’s going to be weak so nothing to get excited about.
 
deltadog03 said:
Recon looks like it's confirming that the center is being pulled back under that convection.
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Also, didn't the Euro strengthened Fred vort around this time frame vrs the gfs? Levi video kinda explains the difference
 
Fred is certainly not much to look at, invest 95 looking healthier than him ATM, needs to reform the center under the convective blob to really stand a chance of making it the next 36 hrs to the possible window of better conditions.....
 
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