Tropical TS Fred

[RBR71]

Good 'ol 3k NAM haha and takes it right over Destin, Fl. Btw, my sister and husband from Ft. Walton Beach, Fl here and now might have to go back a little earlier to try to beat Fred

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Fred has a solid chance at running at a min CAT 1 I think on approach .. that’s going to be max potential I think

 

[Chazwin]

HRRR at landfall
View attachment 88256View attachment 88257

Much further east than what we were seeing yesterday. Gotta believe if he strengthens to a strong tropical storm or even minimal cat 1 that there is going to be a tornado threat across the FL Panhandle, GA, and western/central NC/SC

 

[RBR71]

NHC shifting track east due to relocation/reforming of LLC but still only modest strengthening. Seems shear should plague Fred till LF, we shall see

 

[SD]

3k is probably full of it but

Gusts

10m wind

 

[RBR71]

 

[RBR71]

3k is probably full of it but

Gusts
View attachment 88263
10m wind
View attachment 88264

Yeah I think it's full of it and hope it is, that is directly on top of my sister's house

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The 11 AM update is going to be interesting. I wonder if the NHC will issue a hurricane watch along with the inevitable TS warning? I suspect so.

Welp, the NHC certainly isn't bullish on much strengthening. They're counting on SW shear to keep Fred in check.

 

[GaWx]

This is setting up to bring unneeded heavy rain for the Atlanta area. Most of that area has had above normal rainfall this summer and thus this could be setting them up for flooding concerns. The NHC projected track is the type of track that often brings them multiple inches of rain within a short period. Fortunately, it looks to not be a slow mover, however (more like average speed for a TC in that area in August).

 

[deltadog03]

I think we could see a 60-70 mph at landfall. Very possible

 

[Jessy89]

This is setting up to bring unneeded heavy rain for the Atlanta area. Most of that area has had above normal rainfall this summer and thus this could be setting them up for flooding concerns.

Flooding gonna be significant unless it busts.
That bullseye of 4-6 parts of upstate ne Georgia western Nc. Need the rain but not this much

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

3k is probably full of it but

Gusts
View attachment 88263
10m wind
View attachment 88264

Yeah this would be high end possibility IMO we’ve seen how rapid intensification can do upon landfall … we will see how wrapped up he can get before then

 

[Brent]

Satellite presentation is the best it's ever been

 

[accu35]

Just watched TWC, they were showing gfs had a Destin LF but majority of the ens were west of that. Depends on the NNW motion of how long it will go before the turn.

 

[deltadog03]

Satellite presentation is the best it's ever beenView attachment 88268

I agree and if it can tuck the LLC a bit east it could get going quicky

 

[deltadog03]

Just watched TWC, they were showing gfs had a Destin LF but majority of the ens were west of that. Depends on the NNW motion of how long it will go before the turn.

ENS are not as reliable IMO at this point. I think a near Destin to PCB looks likely.

 

[deltadog03]

And to me, it looks like Fred is moving very slowly. Zoomed in and the LLC looks almost stationary.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS now has it strengthening to 995 mb.

 

[bigdawg3]

Satellite presentation is the best it's ever beenView attachment 88268

Looks like we might have some towers trying to fire on the south side of the LLC now.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

And to me, it looks like Fred is moving very slowly. Zoomed in and the LLC looks almost stationary.

Looks like convection is increasing near the LLC too. Mainly to the east. Now let's see if this continues and is able to begin wrapping around to the north of the exposed center.

 

[RBR71]

Looks like we might have some towers trying to fire on the south side of the LLC now.

Tops of those storms over the LLC just get blown right off, still fighting shear which should impede strengthening unless this thing jumps east

 

[deltadog03]

Tops of those storms over the LLC just get blown right off, still fighting shear which should impede strengthening unless this thing jumps east

ya, you can see on the west side of the storm, the clouds are moving quickly from S to NW. But, your right...if it can tuck itself east it has a better shot for sure.

 

[SD]

Need to align movement with shear to get any significant strengthening.

 

[deltadog03]

 

[deltadog03]

Need to align movement with shear to get any significant strengthening.

see images below..its improving.

 

[JakkelWx]

Sure is windy here at Hollywood beach

 

[Downeastnc]

IF that east side convection keeps it up you might see the track correct east as it tugs the LLC towards it....could see this end up more towards the Tallahassee side of the Big Bend....

 

[accu35]

Not that it matters and it's probably not right, but HMON is little west this run.

 

[deltadog03]

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: quite a bit east of the NHC track with it crossing over the FL/GA/AL point and then moving NNE through GA rather than AL:

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING

 

[RBR71]

12Z UKMET: quite a bit east of the NHC track with it crossing over the FL/GA/AL point and then moving NNE through GA rather than AL:

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING

Yep

 

[RBR71]

Don't show Shane

 

[SD]

Don't show Shane

View attachment 88284

It's normal nbd glad I had excessive soil moisture and all the rain recently since it rained in wake county

 

[GaWx]

Don't show Shane

View attachment 88284

Don’t show Shetley either.

Wow, this would cause major flooding from @deltadog03 through @NoSnowATL @JHS @Jimmy Hypocracy @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy @Jessy89 @Ethan80963 if I have their locations right among others. And then into Asheville area.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Don’t show Shetley either.

Wow, this would cause major flooding from @deltadog03 through @NoSnowATL @JHS @Jimmy Hypocracy @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy @Jessy89 if I have their locations right among others. And then into Asheville area.

Yes it would. My yard can probably soak up a lot but 7 inches is a stretch.

 

[deltadog03]

Well I think with the prevailing motion/flow and the shear vector this (if anything) would bias east because of it. Btw, have y'all seen that we are getting convection north and some west as well.

 

[Tarheel1]

Don't show Shane

View attachment 88284

Damn! Early for an apps rubber!

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Don't show Shane

View attachment 88284

This isn’t good. Good portion of the escarpment got 4-5 inches of rain last night from a stalled storm sitting over the area.

 

[SD]

This isn’t good. Good portion of the escarpment got 4-5 inches of rain last night from a stalled storm sitting over the area.

Would you like to share

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Would you like to share

Yes! Cutting grass twice a week now isn’t fun