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Tropical TS Fred
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
bigstick10
Member
The rain maps are a bit odd...
Looking at it this morning and you can see why, still a very visible llc but has a long way to go. Let's if any convection can get going over top of it, it is over open waters so there's that
Recon in system now, nothing too earth shattering atm, pressures have come up. Really have to wait to later today and see if anything can get going over the center
We shall see..... not like the Euro has been consistent
Shaggy
Member
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
This has the look of some pretty significant Appalachian flooding.
NoSnowATL
Member
I think it’s going to a messy system by the time it’s past Fla.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That slow down and almost stall before the turn toward the NE in Northern Georgia is very worrisome for flooding IMO. Not to mention the enhancement you’ll have from the higher elevations.
NoSnowATL
Member
I agree, hopefully all the moisture stays on the west side for you mountain boys. Local mets around here show the heavy stuff stays towards Augusta-Athens to Clemson.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Going to be interesting. Looks like quite a bit of rain is going to fall from overall tropical airmass and stalled front before Fred even makes his appearance.
Brent
Member
This thing looks like hell
yesterday the hwrf actually showed this opening up today only to have a hurricane at SFL and into the EGOM after that.....I do agree....this looks like hell.
Well the new Hurricane model wants to follow the euros lead with a last minute strengthening into a low end cane 
GFS not excited and again really doesn't get the remnant moisture north of the GOM. I don't buy it but also I think we're at a point models are gonna struggle until (if) convection starts firing again and we get a better organized system. Basically back to a situation where models won't have a clue until we have an actual system developed
Yeah the gfs basically pulls it apart and sends what's left WSW toward Nola then the Texas coast. I think for us the moisture plume may end up being the biggest factor especially if the system progresses up the apps. We should have a nice deep flow off the Atlantic next week
Levi has posted a new video.
Tornadocane
Member
The combination of that negatively tilted upper level low in the Gulf and Fred creates a pretty extreme convergence zone for SE Florida that’s likely to squeeze historical rainfall amounts. This happens with developing waves. They blow-up these extreme thunderstorms with non-stop, earth shaking thunder and lightening for a period of 4-6 hours, particularly during the overnight hours. The models are depicting a 12 hour period of heavy thunderstorms, and there's going to be at least 8-12" just from that. This isn't even including the small-scale storms and complexes that will likely form as Fred approaches.
Shaggy
Member
Gfs not doing much with it in the gom