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Tropical TS Fred

Last night when I was looking at radar. Almost looked like the center was trying to reform close to key west. NHC hasn’t really been to accurate with the exact location of the center of it. Hints why the track gonna shift back east. While the cmc could be a little aggressive on rain totals it’s been consistent on the bullseye and footprint of heavy rain. So I do expect a shift east with track with all the heavy rain on the east side as well.

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Last edited:
SD said:
Yeah I wish the TBW radar wasn't down. Looks like we may be starting to pinch off a real sfc low again
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Jessy89 said:
Last night when I was looking at radar. Almost looked like the center was trying to reform close to key west. NHC hasn’t really been to accurate with the exact location of the center of it. Hints why the track gonna shift back west. While the cmc could be a little aggressive on rain totals it’s been consistent on the bullseye and footprint of heavy rain. So I do expect a shift east with track with all the heavy rain on the east side as well.

10e8189257bd089c4d60f0baf6ead61c.jpg



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So you said it is going to shift back west or east?
 
MSnowAtl said:
Atlanta does not need all of this rain and wind. Sigh...I hold it shift back west later on. (Being selfish ??)
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I really wouldn't be too concerned with wind issues that far inland, heavy rain is however a good possibility
 
First visible images what you think, looks like it may be about right here and just starting to see some towers going up over it. Of course recon should tell us something definitive real quick and I think we will be back to TS status soon

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deltadog03 said:
Fred.....you back?
View attachment 88242
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Yep



000
WTNT61 KNHC 151241
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be
issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/
10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory.

SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yep



000
WTNT61 KNHC 151241
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be
issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/
10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory.

SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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I wouldn't be surprised if Fred takes a shot at getting to like 60-70 mph at landfall either.
 
Looks like the mid level rotation is still a little displaced to the east of the LLC but man with that deep convection, if shear lessens and those two align we might see another one of those ramp up all the way to LF systems.
 
Could we see a surprise cat 1 hurricane by landfall? I mean the gulf is warm just the shear. Is it really a stretch to say there a small chance of a 75mph cane at landfall?


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Jessy89 said:
First let me say I’m very happy and appreciative to be back. Now with that said I have a few things to say about Fred. I’m quite concerned about the amount of rain that may fall in parts of NE Georgia upstate Sc and western NC. The combination of Fred and that front that’s basically parked itself and how the southern Appalachians have away of ringing out moisture from storms. The CMC been very aggressive showing 6 plus inches of rain. We may see a pretty significant flooding event if this much rain falls along with few mudslides in the mountains. Fred maybe a fairly sloppy weak storm but the rain this coming in the days ahead Monday-Wednesday could really be a top weather story to pay attention to.
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Welcome back. It has been dry here in my backyard lately, but most of the area has been wet. We finally got hit yesterday and may get more the next 2 days. Today and tomorrow may not be too bad with flooding, but Tuesday could very well be another story with Fred coming up and that front. It seems like Fred may actually come farther east after all and if it does Tuesday could be rough, especially from the Golden Corner of SC up through the western foothills of NC. Not sure I'd like to be in the area from Tryon NC up to around Jonas Ridge if everything comes together right.
 
Jessy89 said:
Last night when I was looking at radar. Almost looked like the center was trying to reform close to key west. NHC hasn’t really been to accurate with the exact location of the center of it. Hints why the track gonna shift back east. While the cmc could be a little aggressive on rain totals it’s been consistent on the bullseye and footprint of heavy rain. So I do expect a shift east with track with all the heavy rain on the east side as well.

10e8189257bd089c4d60f0baf6ead61c.jpg



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Might have to think about a small Tornado threat too.
 
JHS said:
Might have to think about a small Tornado threat too.
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Wouldn’t be surprised to see tornado watches issued in that footprint of rain. As it moves inland


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Jessy89 said:
Wouldn’t be surprised to see tornado watches issued in that footprint of rain. As it moves inland


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Agree with that. Especially if it can get better organized and up to 60-70 mph in strength. It does not take a hurricane to produce tornadoes.
My county got hit with an EF-3 back in 1994 from tropical storm Beryl
 
We have been swamped with torrential downpours almost daily here in most of ATL, 2 inches in an hour in my yard yesterday afternoon. Not going to take a lot more to be a significant flood threat. We are literally "waterlogged".
 
metwannabe said:
Do the hurricane models ever not ramp these things up to a hurricane? Geez lol
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It’s like forecasters at NHC and other Mets , don’t even try with intensity forecasts anymore ! They just say it’s hard to predict and we will see, and they just leave it at that! TWC seemed disappointed as of yesterday, because it looked to stay extremely weak! Always a wild card
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s like forecasters at NHC and other Mets , don’t even try with intensity forecasts anymore ! They just say it’s hard to predict and we will see, and they just leave it at that! TWC seemed disappointed as of yesterday, because it looked to stay extremely weak! Always a wild card
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They are weather nerds man. They want Cats 5s like we do. It’s in our blood.
 
The 11 AM update is going to be interesting. I wonder if the NHC will issue a hurricane watch along with the inevitable TS warning? I suspect so.
 
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