This thing is about to move right over Hispaniola, good luck with that Fred
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Tropical TS Fred
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
DustinWx
Moderator
Weak circulations are not impacted in the same way
Bold strategy. With as weird and disjointed as this thing looks you have to wonder if it will be as hurt. It also looks like once it emerges and starts approaching the keys it gets into a better environment for some strengthening
Very true but I've also seen so many storms struggle to ever regain much strength after crossing those mountains. I'm not suggesting it doesn't survive at all, just think it will take it's toll on it and intensity forecast are almost useless until we see what shape it's in after emergence.
Agreed. I just wonder if the mass to the SE of the LLC is the MLC and we eventually see the current LLC die in the mountains with a new center closer to the mass of convection.
Avalanche
Member
Im down for whatever provides much needed rain. Hopefully a weak ts to give the SE a broad area of rain.
I didn’t forget him. He is in a desert and thus that heavy rain bullseye on that map in his area is fake news.
New convection forming near the LLC. If nothing else storms the last couple of season have had some resilient vigorous llcs
Euro has an ok look at H3 with pretty light winds. If Fred was over the open waters of EGOM, I would imagine he could get to a strong TS, maybe a weak H
I could be wrong.....but This might have more southern route in it for a bit. That ridge is pretty stout to its north. We might see more westerly motion for a shorter term. Land interaction might play tricks with it as well though.
The trade winds are still coming in from NE to SW where you see the arrows. I think this might have a hard time (in the short term) of gaining that much latitude.
12Z guidance agrees. Fred is going to have to be a mountain goat to survive the next 48 hours.
Icon is well right at 12z runs basically up through Fl. It actually has the 500mb reflection all most off the FL east coast
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Looks like it's almost due west atm along south shore of DR, if this thing slides SW and finds a way to jog around those mountains instead of directly over, I quit. Lol
Yeah, at the the very least it looks like it’s going to go over the most narrow part of the island which is also flattest part as well
Yeah wouldn’t be too surprised if a huge thunderstorm blob relocated the center east of cuba and that’s what runs into Florida without having time to enter the gulf. Would be fairly weak and just a rain maker for the south East … watch out though ICON has the next one right on its heels ready and primed for mischief
It would have to move due north right now to move over that section, it's more likely at this point to move right over the center of the Island. Pico Duarte (over 10k ft) right in it's path.
Fred is almost dead on the GFS, tries to get something weak going in GOM and then the moisture never really makes it north. Still looks moderately wet next week (especially higher terrain) but less than previous run and from the overall pattern not Fred