• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Fred

SD said:
There was a 21.35 in Orange County. Crazy. Like you said the other day we might be tired of rain by the end of August but it's hard to trap a system at our latitude like that so I'm skeptical. I think the better idea is that is continues to our north and we are left with a residual surface trough and daily storms.
Click to expand...

With that crazy ridging in the SE Canada that's been in the ens for a while it would be trapped.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Fred is now a TD per latest advisory.
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 71.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
I think I see some spin to the clouds in the circle? Can't find anything else under that mass over land SE of that circle. Hard to tell.

sat pic.jpg
 
deltadog03 said:
I think I see some spin to the clouds in the circle? Can't find anything else under that mass over land SE of that circle. Hard to tell.

View attachment 88031
Click to expand...
Well we’ll see if any convection starts firing in that area. If it does, we definitely see the center relocated to the north… then we’ll have to see what that does to the overall track
 
Still a TD
...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 72.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
Shaggy said:
06z didn't do much with Fred
Click to expand...
Looking at it this morning and you can see why, still a very visible llc but has a long way to go. Let's if any convection can get going over top of it, it is over open waters so there's that
 
Recon in system now, nothing too earth shattering atm, pressures have come up. Really have to wait to later today and see if anything can get going over the center
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
That slow down and almost stall before the turn toward the NE in Northern Georgia is very worrisome for flooding IMO. Not to mention the enhancement you’ll have from the higher elevations.
Click to expand...
I agree, hopefully all the moisture stays on the west side for you mountain boys. Local mets around here show the heavy stuff stays towards Augusta-Athens to Clemson.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Maybe the only thing that might help is that most of the rainfall will be on the west side so hopefully you mountain boys wi

I agree, hopefully all the moisture stays on the west side for you mountain boys. Local mets around here show the heavy stuff stays towards Augusta-Athens to Clemson.
Click to expand...
Going to be interesting. Looks like quite a bit of rain is going to fall from overall tropical airmass and stalled front before Fred even makes his appearance.
 
GFS not excited and again really doesn't get the remnant moisture north of the GOM. I don't buy it but also I think we're at a point models are gonna struggle until (if) convection starts firing again and we get a better organized system. Basically back to a situation where models won't have a clue until we have an actual system developed
 
metwannabe said:
GFS not excited and again really doesn't get the remnant moisture north of the GOM. I don't buy it but also I think we're at a point models are gonna struggle until (if) convection starts firing again and we get a better organized system. Basically back to a situation where models won't have a clue until we have an actual system developed
Click to expand...
Yeah the gfs basically pulls it apart and sends what's left WSW toward Nola then the Texas coast. I think for us the moisture plume may end up being the biggest factor especially if the system progresses up the apps. We should have a nice deep flow off the Atlantic next week
 
The combination of that negatively tilted upper level low in the Gulf and Fred creates a pretty extreme convergence zone for SE Florida that’s likely to squeeze historical rainfall amounts. This happens with developing waves. They blow-up these extreme thunderstorms with non-stop, earth shaking thunder and lightening for a period of 4-6 hours, particularly during the overnight hours. The models are depicting a 12 hour period of heavy thunderstorms, and there's going to be at least 8-12" just from that. This isn't even including the small-scale storms and complexes that will likely form as Fred approaches.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top