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Tropical TS Fred

SD said:
I'm not sure when the next flight is but the convection around the center has gotten its act together. I wouldn't be surprised if they upgraded without recon
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I noticed on the maps that, until this becomes better organized, the ridge to the north might help this go a bit more westerly?
 
Notice the wave behind getting its act together

Also on mid level water vapor so far soon to be Fred has two stepped around the dry air tongue in front of it, avoided ingestion.

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There is a lot of dry air in front; the swirl is top stacked and storms are not forming/holding together underneath; as of yet no true lower level circulation; and it has a lot of shear in the front yard ... but hey, this is 2021 and anything is possible ... if not perhaps probable ...

“He was a midget in the big house, see? And he tried to escape by wiggling through a mouse hole after lights out, but he outsmarted himself, see? Cuz it wasn't a mouse hole, it was a light socket, and somebody turned the lights on.” -- Fred Flinstone, Season 2

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pcbjr said:
For that wave to actually close and have a coc ...
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Maybe but it seemed on the morning recon they didn't really fly where there could have been a center

It just is interesting because other times they rush to name stuff so fast...

At least we have PTC's now that helps with the warnings regardless so the whole naming thing is more about semantics
 
Recon is heading to PTC 6. Should be able to see if it has a closed circulation.
 
Looks like the center is south of the radar site. Looks a bit north and moving almost due west. Looks like it's trying to get better organized.
 
Is it my Is it my imagination or does this not appear to be where the center is?
 

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