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Tropical TS Fred
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
bigstick10
Member
From FFC, KATL
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Fairly routine summertime forecast through the upcoming weekend as
Georgia remains under weak, relatively featureless upper-level flow
pattern. Western Atlantic surface ridge retreats offshore with weak
surface trough settling into the region. Result is scattered to
widespread, diurnally oriented, convection and near normal
temperatures. Potential big changes for early next week as medium-
range models coming into better agreement, and better run-to-run
consistency, with a potential tropical system. Model consensus
narrowing in on a tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico/west
coast of Florida area by early Monday, however there continues to be
noticeable differences in the strength/timing of the system. Still a
long ways off in the forecast, but we will need to watch upcoming
trends for potential impacts across central and north Georgia.
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Fairly routine summertime forecast through the upcoming weekend as
Georgia remains under weak, relatively featureless upper-level flow
pattern. Western Atlantic surface ridge retreats offshore with weak
surface trough settling into the region. Result is scattered to
widespread, diurnally oriented, convection and near normal
temperatures. Potential big changes for early next week as medium-
range models coming into better agreement, and better run-to-run
consistency, with a potential tropical system. Model consensus
narrowing in on a tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico/west
coast of Florida area by early Monday, however there continues to be
noticeable differences in the strength/timing of the system. Still a
long ways off in the forecast, but we will need to watch upcoming
trends for potential impacts across central and north Georgia.
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Looking pretty good this morning on the early visible images. Still have some spread in where it could go from up the FL east coast to the central gulf. How strong the trough moving through the NE is this weekend and how much it pushes back against the bermuda ridge along with land interactions in the islands will be big players. Good luck with intensity this far out
It did the same thing with Elsa. I don't quite understand it for a model with such good scores at 500mb it can really mess its britches sometimes
Gonna be able to see Fred, I mean PTC 6, on the PR radar real soon. My guess it will be Fred by then
Recon is in there now. Looks like they closed off a center near 16.3n&63.4w. Between that and the satellite presentation, I'd be surprised if it's not upgraded to at least a TD.
With the winds they have found if they can close off the LLC I think it goes straight to TS
Agreed. It's very close.
Henry2326
Member
Looks like Fred on visible loop, might get a better idea from PR radar very soon
Fred is the best-looking "tropical wave" I may have ever seen.
Henry2326
Member
Looking pretty good right now
I'm not sure when the next flight is but the convection around the center has gotten its act together. I wouldn't be surprised if they upgraded without recon