Tropical TS Fred

[deltadog03]

I'm not sure when the next flight is but the convection around the center has gotten its act together. I wouldn't be surprised if they upgraded without recon

I noticed on the maps that, until this becomes better organized, the ridge to the north might help this go a bit more westerly?

 

[SD]

I noticed on the maps that, until this becomes better organized, the ridge to the north might help this go a bit more westerly?

Yeah weaker early is probably west

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

Notice the wave behind getting its act together

Also on mid level water vapor so far soon to be Fred has two stepped around the dry air tongue in front of it, avoided ingestion.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah weaker early is probably west

Short term= good cause shredder … long term= bad cause gulf warmth

 

[pcbjr]

There is a lot of dry air in front; the swirl is top stacked and storms are not forming/holding together underneath; as of yet no true lower level circulation; and it has a lot of shear in the front yard ... but hey, this is 2021 and anything is possible ... if not perhaps probable ...

“He was a midget in the big house, see? And he tried to escape by wiggling through a mouse hole after lights out, but he outsmarted himself, see? Cuz it wasn't a mouse hole, it was a light socket, and somebody turned the lights on.” -- Fred Flinstone, Season 2

 

[Brent]

Still no Fred. Not sure what the NHC is waiting for

 

[pcbjr]

Still no Fred. Not sure what the NHC is waiting for

For that wave to actually close and have a coc ...

 

[Arcc]

Fred is the best-looking "tropical wave" I may have ever seen.

Then you must not remember the Super Caribbean Cruiser wave of he late 2000’s.

 

[MSnowAtl]

View attachment 87863

Why does this thing have to head towards Atlanta now! ??? sigh

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Then you must not remember the Super Caribbean Cruiser wave of he late 2000’s.

See, when you get old like me, a fading memory can be a good thing. I get to watch movies for the second and third time and they're like brand new!

 

[Brent]

For that wave to actually close and have a coc ...

Maybe but it seemed on the morning recon they didn't really fly where there could have been a center

It just is interesting because other times they rush to name stuff so fast...

At least we have PTC's now that helps with the warnings regardless so the whole naming thing is more about semantics

 

[Snowfan]

Recon is heading to PTC 6. Should be able to see if it has a closed circulation.

 

[BHS1975]

HWRF looks bad for S Florida.


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[Tornadocane]

Check out Puerto Rico's radar. This is way further north than anyone suspected.

San Juan, PR (TJUA) Radar

 

[SD]

San Juan radar says this thing has some issues

 

[deltadog03]

San Juan radar says this thing has some issues

Ya this thing still looks messy

 

[deltadog03]

 

[deltadog03]

Looks like the center is south of the radar site. Looks a bit north and moving almost due west. Looks like it's trying to get better organized.

 

[ncskywarn]

Is it my Is it my imagination or does this not appear to be where the center is?

 

[JHS]

Hopefully it comes straight up the spine of the mountains from GA and northeast. That's the only way we will get good rain here. Storms today missed us.

 

[pcbjr]

 

[deltadog03]

Ya if anything is at the sfc it's near that circle.

 

[pcbjr]

 

[Snowfan]

New advisory has it now at 40 mph.

 

[Henry2326]

18z HWRF trend comparison to 12z. Weaker and further south.

 

[Stormsfury]

still can't find a well defined LLC. It's extremely close.. the wave axis is already tilting more NNW/SSE

 

[Henry2326]

18z HWRF second landfall.......slower and weaker 12z but same general area.

 

[Henry2326]

18z Euro.....looks similar to 18z HWRF

 

[BHS1975]

18z Euro.....looks similar to 18z HWRF

The one behind it has a dry air shield.


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[Brent]

Breaking news we have a center

URNT12 KNHC 110125 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062021
A. 11/00:40:40Z
B. 17.34 deg N 066.30 deg W
C. 850 mb 1504 m
D. 1009 mb
E. 050 deg 6 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 35 kt
I. 006 deg 31 nm 00:31:00Z
J. 115 deg 40 kt
K. 038 deg 66 nm 00:20:00Z
L. 25 kt
M. 274 deg 8 nm 00:43:00Z
N. 043 deg 31 kt
O. 291 deg 77 nm 01:01:00Z
P. 17 C / 1532 m
Q. 19 C / 1526 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 134 / 8
T. 0.02 / 6.5 nm
U. AF302 0206A SURVEY OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 43 KT 038 / 71 NM 00:19:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 352 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
0 likes

 

[Brent]

We have Fred

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6

65 mph at the end of the forecast approaching the Panhandle

 

[Brent]

 

[Snowfan]

GFS is a bit west of 18z @96 hours.

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS is a bit west of 18z @96 hours.

It’s gonna end up going into LA and MS

 

[Snowfan]

I thought it was but it has it like this:

It’s gonna end up going into LA and MS

 

[Brent]

Almost looks like an eyewall trying to form but Hispaniola awaits tomorrow

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro says for @pcbjr to look out for heavy rains he doesn't need or want:

 

[NCSNOW]

0Z Euro says for @pcbjr to look out for heavy rains he doesn't need or want:

View attachment 87928

You forgot Shettley. Check out the bullseye in the upstate

 

[Arcc]

Judging by how poorly it looks on IR means it will be hard to track before long. I doubt the current llc survives Hispaniola.