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Tropical TS Elsa

deltadog03 said:
They used to have it where you could have the NHC forecast cone over the satellite pics.
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Hmm. I've never seen that one on the NHC site.

I do remember them having the forecast points on the old AVN pics, but not the cone overlayed. You're thinking it's tracking a bit left too I bet. I think it is
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Hmm. I've never seen that one on the NHC site.

I do remember them having the forecast points on the old AVN pics, but not the cone overlayed. You're thinking it's tracking a bit left too I bet. I think it is
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yes! the forecast plots on the AVN...does anyone else do that?
 
Elsa is exceptionally tenacious... her ability to generate deep convection will be in her favor. The system has slowed considerably... down to 17mph which also works in her favor to allow for more vertical stacking... and a better environment to allow for the southern side to wrap up more readily
 
deltadog03 said:
Ummm is she about to do something? Satellite picture becoming much more impressive.
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Amazing what can happen when you drop that forward speed by as much as she did. Keep in mind most tropical systems move around 12-16mph typically.

Elsa slowed down by that much and is STILL doing 17mph. This has been a huge bump to her organization.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This aged poorly .. let’s see if she can wrap up just as quick as she did the other night
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Her slowing from 30mph to 17mph has made a significant difference for her organization. She looked like garbage all day and evening but she has done quite a bit of recovery over the last few hours. We will see if she sustains it..I suspect she will now that she has slowed.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lesson: Deep convection doesn't always = intensification. In this case, it's an indication of arrested development/little-no intensity change as confirmed by recon.

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ya, I would imagine it doesn't happen often...I wonder if once it kind of goes through this phase if it helps kind of re-structure itself?
 
Call me crazy, but has the NHC forecast moved back to 2 days ago.....

I'm not crazy....discussion

The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to
gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an
additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has
continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each
other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA
and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more
westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed
admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad
west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top
of the previous advisory track.
 
More discussion.....looks like will eventually go vertical.

After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level
field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in
intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening
could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central
coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at
more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected
after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by
some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf
Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear
increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant
strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very
asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most
of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the
east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the
previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected
consensus models.

Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree
of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to
factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC
track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles,
respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph
for both days 3 and 4.
 
GFS has continued the weakening trend. I think the GFS is out to lunch tbh.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh84_trend.gif
 
deltadog03 said:
ya, I would imagine it doesn't happen often...I wonder if once it kind of goes through this phase if it helps kind of re-structure itself?
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That’s actually exactly what is happening, the CCC pattern is tipping us off to a major restructuring process in Elsa with possible downshear center reformation

 
Webberweather53 said:
Im honestly not sure because now this is probably going to interact more with Jamaica and that too could throw yet another curve ball into things because the storm might get pinballed around the island
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I will say the HWRF is west this run...almost brings landfall back to the big bend of FL...its TS lopsided mess, but like threads the needle btwn Jamaica and Cuba then crosses Cuba over West Central Cuba and heads like NNW into Eastern Gulf.
 
deltadog03 said:
so does anyone have the maps, satellite, with the NHC tracks on them? know where to find them? like the ones that NHC main page used to have.
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Just go here and select the storm. Select a Satellite Imagery at the top of the web page and then select an Image Resolution on the left side of the web page. The higher (finer) the resolution you choose, the larger the graphic. However, I think the satellite view is only updated about once every hour or so.

CIMSS Tropical Cyclones

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

Example:

1625384647265.png

Hope this helps.
 
Last edited:
Well Elsa is starting to remind me of Isaias...huge convective mass but pressures not lowering.
Elsa let it (old LLC) go in lieu of a formation of a new LLC (via top down build down)...
Elsa must have hooked up with Thor last night caused she generated an extreme amount of lightning with that overnight convective burst.
Elsa is adjusting with such cold cloud tops (never bothered her anyway).

All puns aside ... i think Elsa threads the islands of Jamaica and Eastern Cuba today...we MIGHT see another situation where the islands may enhance channeled inflow to the reformed LLC later today/this afternoon
 
mrdaddyman said:
Just go here and select the storm. Select a Satellite Imagery at the top of the web page and then select an Image Resolution on the left side of the web page. The higher (finer) the resolution you choose, the larger the graphic. However, I think the satellite view is only updated about once every hour or so.

CIMSS Tropical Cyclones

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

Example:

View attachment 86133

Hope this helps.
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YES! Thank you
 
The 6z hwrf is a useless run. It had the center just south of eastern Cuba at this time getting ready to be shredded by the high terrain.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The 6z hwrf is a useless run. It had the center just south of eastern Cuba at this time getting ready to be shredded by the high terrain.
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I really don’t think any of these models are going to give a useful picture until we know exactly where the center will cross Cuba. Right now it appears that it’s heading for a crossing near the most narrow part of the island. Even though the storm has slowed, a crossing there wouldn’t damage the storm’s structure too much and then it could be off to the races once in the Gulf.
 
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