12z icon matches the nhc track pretty well
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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think this is a big reason why Elsa is weaker this morning
Brent
Member
It's certainly possible if it can hold together slow down and get into a favorable environment. That's a lot of ifs but I would never write off a storm moving into the Gulf
We just don't know what kind of shape it'll be in. For every storm that bombed there's another one that never recovered. We'll see which side of history Elsa falls on
Jessy89
Member
Gfs is really weak further west.
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accu35
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Actually, about the same location at LF as 6z this morning
Not at all. It’s simply going to depend on how it looks after it exits Cuba and how long it’s over the warm Gulf waters. Obviously it will cross the Loop Current and the overall environment should be favorable for strengthening. Now if it were to come ashore near Tampa or south then there wouldn’t be as much time for it to strengthen than if it would be the Big Bend west along the Panhandle
Jessy89
Member
Yeah but when it goes inland. What’s left of the center sorta goes through Georgia and maybe up through Columbia instead of closer to the coast. That looks further west to me. But looks very weak. I don’t know I just feel we get a very lopsided 75mph cane hitting Florida or at least a 70mph storm. Gotta get this past Cuba then we get a clearer picture
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Stormsfury
Member
Despite the undercutting shear and struggles Elsa is facing right now, Elsa is absolutely tenacious and that LLC is vigorous...
In fact, the recent convective enhancement this morning maybe a bi product of convergent winds pinching between Hispaniola and Elsa herself being channeled between...
In fact, the recent convective enhancement this morning maybe a bi product of convergent winds pinching between Hispaniola and Elsa herself being channeled between...
I was just about to post that despite the overall weakening, it’s still blowing up plenty of thunderstorms. I have feeling that we are going to see news reports in the next couple days of major flooding on Hispaniola
Talk about possibly threading the needle … sheesh 
Looks like the center will definitely miss the shredder to the south, honestly that core looks solid hmmm
accu35
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This storm isn't done
BHS1975
Member
lowering shear ahead?
Yeah starting to see evidence in the satellite imagery of another explosive play hit of thunderstorms now bursting on the northern side of the circulation trying to wrap around the west side … could be an indication of shear lessening since thunderstorms have only been on the east side for a while now playing catch up
Center in black and red is the recent blow up
The Florida keys are now under a tropical storm watch.
New track
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's another tweet to add onto this thread & a process I think most of us already are aware of if you've followed TCs long enough. The flow becomes non-divergent/convergent below outflow level and TCs are less resistant to shear in the low-mid levels as result. It's also why we often look at dry air in the mid-levels (say 400-700mb relative humidity) and not above that.
Another important caveat is that while stronger TCs are better at carrying out this process, their outflow level moves up higher in the upper troposphere.
I have a question that maybe someone with more knowledge than me could answer. Is it possible that the mountains of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could actually help the storm develop since the center looks to missing those areas just to the south. I seem to remember another storm in the last few years that hugged the southern coast of Cuba and actually developed more convection and a better structure. Could this be to getting more rising air from the upward motion near mountains
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That would be Isaias from last season. Answer here is likely no however because Elsa is a small, compact, and semi-organized vortex, it has more to lose interacting w/ land compared to Isaias which was prior to developing over Hispaniola, a giant, loosely organized wave axis.
Shaggy
Member
Still looks rough despite the convective bursts. If you notice there is almost no banding and the new burst off the tip of Haiti is moving away from the circulation not wrapping into it.
That track would bring a significant heavy rain threat for west I-95 in the Carolinas and a potential tornado threat in the eastern Carolinas
Which is exactly what we need to finally end the dry conditions. Although, at least around here everything is looking really green. At least on my side of town. I'd imagine we'd have some decent wind gusts as well. Nothing crazy but definitely wind advisory criteria.
The big question is how quickly it moves through. Right now it shows the center taking 24 hours to move from just west of Savannah to near Norfolk. That’s not fast but it’s steady… if it were to be slower, there could be some big flood concerns
I would love the rain. No doubt! However, the posters in Greenville and surrounding areas talk of not wanting the head waters of the rivers north and west being more of an issue exasperating the excess flooding potential they're already experiencing. Sorry, to sound selfish but 1-3" wouldn't amount to much in the way of downstream flooding.
Shaggy
Member
River levels have really dropped and are quite normal at the time being. A fast moving elsa wouldnt complicate that situation too much even if the headwaters got a widespread 1-3
Hmmm
Ummm is she about to do something? Satellite picture becoming much more impressive.
Looks like the storm may skirt just north of Jamaica too.
Downeastnc
Member
She does seem to be trying tonight...core looks a lot healthier the last hr or so.
Henry2326
Member
Looks like it aligning vertically.
BHS1975
Member
Models sure aren't doing much.
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Now, I don't know how accurate these maps usually are....but, it *could* explain why we might be seeing a healthier version of Elsa tonight...(or trying to be one)
This aged poorly .. let’s see if she can wrap up just as quick as she did the other night
Henry2326
Member
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She gets aligned and slows down in that environment and she can recover before land. Doable.....
She gets aligned and slows down in that environment and she can recover before land. Doable.....
Definitely a better environment that the last 24 hours. Also just plotting the track and given the forecast, the center should move over fairly flat terrain in Cuba and not be over land long at all. Once she emerges into the Gulf, there should be a decent environment and very warm water waiting.
so does anyone have the maps, satellite, with the NHC tracks on them? know where to find them? like the ones that NHC main page used to have.