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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

Yeah the drought monitor map is pretty bad for Atlanta proper and parts northeast from there (it's either severe or extreme drought in much of it) and this storm looks like its not really going to help which is a shame.

That's not to say there aren't other areas in Georgia that don't have drought that is going to get help. Based off Sunday, the early week system, and this storm, a lot of south Georgia and east Georgia might get removed from the drought next week. Maybe southeast Alabama too.
 
Not far off from winter weather per the CMC near i40 in NC. 34 degrees with uniform precip shield at the SC border. If only upslope occurred a little quicker I wouldn’t rule out a sleet pellet or freezing rain south-western NC if a shower developed out ahead. Isolated at best and prob limited to a MTN.
 
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Pretty gusty out here at Biloxi MS right now. Just some light rain at times. Actually just had a nice beach walk.

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Significant NW jog on the nam. Looks like the heaviest rain goes over upstate sc.


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Someone correct me if I’m wrong. But what the Nam is actually showing is what has happened time and time again. The southern mountains in nc is ringing out more moisture. So the extreme northern part of Oconee and Pickens counties and the southern part of Transylvania and Henderson counties could see a nice bullseye for rain of 2-3 inches.


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3KM NAM looks different in regards to some areas vs 12KM.

nam3km_apcpn_seus_11.png
 
There has to be upper level divergence or sometime at play, to even get precip up my way! The storm is very lopsided and all the convection is on the E/SE side
 
I guess take your model of choice! My new favorite, the WRF!A0FD90B3-04FF-47E0-B226-B6301EFBDB8B.png5C4A2573-068C-46FB-8595-990C5284B4F0.png
 
One of the NAMs has the low tracking almost over CLT! We are right in the NAMs wheelhouse!
 
Fair warning, the last few HRRRs have shown the possibility of a dry slot (which I suppose with a subtropical storm or probable transition to it we all knew was possible).

And the GFS looks very subtropically.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Fair warning, the last few HRRRs have shown the possibility of a dry slot (which I suppose with a subtropical storm or probable transition to it we all knew was possible).

And the GFS looks very subtropically.
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Hrrrr has the center In a bit of a odd location. It’s on Georgia/Alabama border nearly moving due north i am not buying that

b4a5d7ded29f18e689b729c90846f21a.jpg



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GFS just cut the qpf totals big time over many areas. I wonder if that convective mass is really going to hurt totals outside of FL?
 
Nah if it does transition to being subtropical (which is what is thought will happen) I'm pretty sure the center can be displaced. Just look at it right now. Its classified as tropical but the center is not in the middle of the convection.
 
deltadog03 said:
GFS just cut the qpf totals big time over many areas. I wonder if that convective mass is really going to hurt totals outside of FL?
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We toss global models at this point. It’s about 12 hours from precip starting IMBY, roll w/ short range models
 
deltadog03 said:
GFS just cut the qpf totals big time over many areas. I wonder if that convective mass is really going to hurt totals outside of FL?
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Wow, that was an ugly GFS run! Basically keeps the heaviest rain along and East of I-95 in NC/SC! Can the GFS score a victory? I hope not!A6265831-967E-4E01-9D42-CDCE504D8DB1.png
 
I would side with the globals. Heavier rain down east near Virginia/NC tends to rob moisture to the west so I believe the dry slot will be very real. But any rain is good. Even 1” in the west.
 
You can get with this? GFS2F9A886E-C27F-41F2-942F-2F9442F10995.png
 
Or you can get with that!? NAMs and WRF02B12728-AF3C-4DF2-A2BC-D021E2EBDF78.png56B3DF0D-A441-48D2-A641-C4338FEC7BE1.png1EAE29BB-8D0F-476C-9988-7B8F85BB3569.png77CEAFC5-B4F4-4B81-A7CC-8E90FEC71DBC.png
 
Don’t know about totals yet, but long duration, light to moderate rain looks amazing! And piggybacking on the last few events, this is extremely beneficial!02BF51CB-9567-4D8F-91FA-6A9ED9A56A0F.png
 
I find it interesting that models are showing more rain on the left side of the system than the right side.
WXinCanton said:
Looking good for North GA folks, we might out perform most of the global modeling. Hrrr has nice swath coming through area right where that band pivots.

hrrr_apcpn_seus_18.png
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I just don't see how there's going to be that much rain to the N/W of the center. It almost seems like there's more rain on that side of the center than there is the East side.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I find it interesting that models are showing more rain on the left side of the system than the right side.

I just don't see how there's going to be that much rain to the N/W of the center. It almost seems like there's more rain on that side of the center than there is the East side.
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Look at the radar and see where that heavy band is. When it pivots it will barely move and dump so good rain. Maybe not what the hrrr shows but should be decent.
 
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