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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

ForsythSnow said:
Probably some new data got put into the models and we are seeing a jump south with the system overall in addition to a colder setup. Likely there was a decent adjustment in the key factors.
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Sure hope a lot of that is sleet. Can't imagine how bad it would be as ZR only.
 
I grew up in Gainesville Georgia and there were many ice storms that were not in the forecast, even the day before. From my experience it will be worse than people expect it's just a matter of where and how far away from mountains the cad will be strong..Cads are always colder than expected and always takes longer to scour out.
 
Everything’s caving. If we get ukmet and euro support .. that would be the nail in the coffin for sure and sirens are going to be going off tomorrow. Does anyone have ukmet maps? Also accumulation maps for these ice on the globals?
 
That would probably reach the ground, has some decent frontogenesis with it
 
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So I wasn't giving this storm much attention but now it seems like it might be worth to pay closer attention to.

I feel like this might end up surprising a lot of people.
 
AC498A3E-0C3C-4BD4-9AEF-D92F4AAA1469.pngF29F1C9B-492C-4516-A9E2-ACD530C9F271.pngA6FB9CE4-23E3-4E7C-9DAC-75AE7F964ED1.pngAll 3 of the 6AM NAM’s, FWIW, at peak icing!
 
Definitely looks like the models are coming in colder, especially if the FV3 is showing more snow now at the onset in NC. Same thing happened with the December storm with the models coming in colder the closer we got to the start of the storm.
 
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One trend that continues showing up in the modeling is the potential for front-end snow during the day Saturday. This needs to be watched carefully, as it has the potential to put down a quick inch or two wherever this band sets up. However, given the dry air, it's hard to imagine this much reaching the surface. Just something to watch in the modeling today.
 
What we need to watch for today is the extent of front end precip.

One reason why many areas east of I-85 are “saved” from ice is because the precip starts after the sun has warmed them up. IF precip is more expansive and arrives early morning tmrw then many areas will not rise above freezing.

RDU sits at 33 and rain most of the day so it would only take precip coming in a few hrs earlier to make a significant change.

IMO this is a now cast event. Monitor that front edge. It’s the key player for our temps.


The quicker it comes the drier DP’s it has and colder temps it will bring. The slower it is the warmer it will be as the sun does it’s work and the dry air retreats.
 
Jon said:
The 3km Nam is extremely icey this morning. Something to watch, as local forecasters have already called for all rain for Raleigh.

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I don't know why the local forecasters already called for all rain this far out, either. I guess it is playing it conservative, but you would think they would say we still have to wait a couple of days to see what could happen instead of proclaiming it as all rain alresdy.
 
Jon said:
The 3km Nam is extremely icey this morning. Something to watch, as local forecasters have already called for all rain for Raleigh.

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Nothing but rain here too, per local forecasters! But if NAM happens to be right....
 
Yep, brad p says some ice along I-40 in his blog, mostly a cold rain south of I-40, many Mets are using the euro model right now ? many short range models say ice as far south as CLT
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, brad p says some ice along I-40 in his blog, mostly a cold rain south of I-40, many Mets are using the euro model right now ? many short range models say ice as far south as CLT
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Yeah that's what I dislike about a lot of TV mets, they tend to stick to the globals even as we get into range of models like NAM, RGEM, etc.

If the next runs of the Euro and GFS cave a lot of mets will be playing catch up
 
Jon said:
The 3km Nam is extremely icey this morning. Something to watch, as local forecasters have already called for all rain for Raleigh.

cc95bd0cc77bcbfd5b9f4d10928a3533.jpg



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Jon said:
The 3km Nam is extremely icey this morning. Something to watch, as local forecasters have already called for all rain for Raleigh.

cc95bd0cc77bcbfd5b9f4d10928a3533.jpg



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what does the rest of the upstate and Georgia ice totals look like
 
WSW is up for the N.Foothills!
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds.
.TONIGHT...Clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of light snow in the morning, then a
chance of snow or a slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Little or no snow accumulation. Cooler with highs in the lower
30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation
30 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Sleet or snow likely in the evening, then sleet
and freezing rain after midnight. Light snow accumulation. Near
steady temperature around 30. Light and variable winds. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy. Sleet or snow or rain likely in the morning,
then a chance of rain or snow or sleet in the afternoon.
Additional light snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near
steady temperature in the lower 30s.
 
Jon said:
The 3km Nam is extremely icey this morning. Something to watch, as local forecasters have already called for all rain for Raleigh.

cc95bd0cc77bcbfd5b9f4d10928a3533.jpg



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Looks very similar to the CMC a few days ago that was immediately discounted because its surface depiction simply looked different from the other models. That’s exactly why I said urged many to be catious and wait for the high res models inside 36-48 hours before tossing and look where we currently stand lol. Could we flip back to those earlier more amped and warmer solutions? Absolutely but I would have hated to jump the gun on this and throw the cmc out right off the bat.
 
I hate to ask this, but I some talk about the EC being "dry," but didn't see anyone post any maps. How dry was it?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I am from Carrollton but currently along the Ohio/Indiana border.
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I’m near Gwinnett county. It’s interesting seeing the NAM bring ice down closer to us over the last two model runs. None of our local Mets here are even talking about the new data from the NAM. They are hugging the GFS and Euro. I honestly think the NAM should be preferred in CAD situations as it typically does much better than the global models.


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Poimen said:
I hate to ask this, but I some talk about the EC being "dry," but didn't see anyone post any maps. How dry was it?
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I’ve seen it wobble with QPF over VA on the 6z run only to bring it back 12z...seems like it’s having a hard time with this storm and I’d agree with it. The energy is so strung out the model has no idea where to put the maxima


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After the models were ticking colder at 18z and the 0z Nam with better sampled data, I thought that the colder stronger and longer trend could continue. I didn't really see that when I looked at the rest of the 0z and 6z runs. Many of the 6z runs have the system starting to amp up and give more precip for us and the MA crew. That will often times trump the trend of colder surface temps due to CAD. I am interested in seeing the rest of the model runs today. My gut feeling is that the ice will be a nuisance event for the triad, non-event south and east of there, and a significant event for the foothill areas. We will see. This has been a fun one to track!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks very similar to the CMC a few days ago that was immediately discounted because its surface depiction simply looked different from the other models. That’s exactly why I said urged many to be catious and wait for the high res models inside 36-48 hours before tossing and look where we currently stand lol. Could we flip back to those earlier more amped and warmer solutions? Absolutely but I would have hated to jump the gun on this and throw the cmc out right off the bat.
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Temps will be near freezing so most of the rain will run off.


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Need to be in the uppers 20s or less for decent accrual with is very rare in wake.


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packfan98 said:
After the models were ticking colder at 18z and the 0z Nam with better sampled data, I thought that the colder stronger and longer trend could continue. I didn't really see that when I looked at the rest of the 0z and 6z runs. Many of the 6z runs have the system starting to amp up and give more precip for us and the MA crew. That will often times trump the trend of colder surface temps due to CAD. I am interested in seeing the rest of the model runs today. My gut feeling is that the ice will be a nuisance event for the triad, non-event south and east of there, and a significant event for the foothill areas. We will see. This has been a fun one to track!
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The 3K NAM is the one exception to that this morning, if it's thermals verify lots will be caught off guard in the Piedmont of NC, upstate of SC and NE Ga..... but it does seem to be the only one atm. RGEM slightly warmer, it's razor thin that's for sure
 
BHS1975 said:
If we don’t get a strong dry air feed at the surface latent heat release will quickly warm temps to 33/34 in wake with a slower rise west of the 85/15-501 corridor .


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They very well could but again we don’t know that yet with much confidence so don’t be quick to rush judgement based on simply gut feelings that lack any sort of actual substance and scientific rationale.
 
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