Kylo
Member
I'm sure it is. With storms like this, we can sometimes get a little colder air aloft to get enough sleet to mitigate the freezing rain. I NEVER want an ice storm. I can't figure out if I want it to be warmer and rain, or colder and get a dusting of snow and a ton of sleet. We've already missed 10 days of school this year. 5 for the two hurricanes, and 5 for the snow storm. I have a suspicion we will be out Monday too. Probably another couple of days before winter is over too based on the pattern.Must be worse over by you, this would be bad.
I'm sure it is. With storms like this, we can sometimes get a little colder air aloft to get enough sleet to mitigate the freezing rain. I NEVER want an ice storm. I can't figure out if I want it to be warmer and rain, or colder and get a dusting of snow and a ton of sleet. We've already missed 10 days of school this year. 5 for the two hurricanes, and 5 for the snow storm. I have a suspicion we will be out Monday too. Probably another couple of days before winter is over too based on the pattern.
Sounds right to me. I'm leaning towards more of a nuisance event until you get over to the foothills and the super CAD areas from Hickory to Mt. Airy to N. Wilksboro. It's really too close to call with the temps. If the HP is as currently depicted, I think that it could trend .5-1 degree colder and keep most of the Triad below freezing the entire event. However, 31 degrees will not have as great an impact as 27 would. Fun times as we try to nail down the details.Your best bet is to wish for warmer and rain. It’s a large warm nose. Not much hope for sleet I’m afraid.
If cmc is right you may make it to peak storm as sleet. But I’d bet it’s too cold.
As pointed out it’s ice in NC but look at trend of frozen shifting. Last 6 runs of FV.
View attachment 10603
bullseye - that's DT Greenville
With the way the models are going, especially the short term ones, I'm starting to think there may be a chance of icing here this time. Seems like what we were missing from December may be there this time. We have the low DPs in VA area, a decent wedge and the wind direction doesn't chance at the surface while the precip is around, and the temps are dropping as the precip rolls in at the evening time and goes into the night.
Yep and with any decent CAD it would almost certainly be a few degrees colder than forecast. A great example would be from 2015 when we were only supposed to get rain here and in all areas south of I-85 in upstate SC. As it turned out we got sleet here where I am with temps dropping into the upper 20's with serious icing as far south as Greenwood SC.With the way the models are going, especially the short term ones, I'm starting to think there may be a chance of icing here this time. Seems like what we were missing from December may be there this time. We have the low DPs in VA area, a decent wedge and the wind direction doesn't chance at the surface while the precip is around, and the temps are dropping as the precip rolls in at the evening time and goes into the night.
what is the qpf mean at gso now? 18z euro was around .7-.8”. This has potential if the temps stay down.SREF mean qpf increased again at GSO. That's probably a sign that the NAM will increase its qpf, too. We'll see shortly.
SREF members. They must have hit the bottle early tonight, the 21z is a big swing from earlier runs.
View attachment 10621View attachment 10622
SREF members. They must have hit the bottle early tonight, the 21z is a big swing from earlier runs.
View attachment 10621
Yep and with any decent CAD it would almost certainly be a few degrees colder than forecast. A great example would be from 2015 when we were only supposed to get rain here and in all areas south of I-85 in upstate SC. As it turned out we got sleet here where I am with temps dropping into the upper 20's with serious icing as far south as Greenwood SC.
Is there a map that shows better filtering? I'm looking elsewhere and there is 0 snow down in GVL unlike that map shows.SREF members. They must have hit the bottle early tonight, the 21z is a big swing from earlier runs.
View attachment 10621View attachment 10622
Not trying to steal your thunder Kylo, but here's a closer-up view of these maps. If you can call it that.SREF members. They must have hit the bottle early tonight, the 21z is a big swing from earlier runs.
View attachment 10621View attachment 10622
Not trying to steal your thunder Kylo, but here's a closer-up view of these maps. If you can call it that.
View attachment 10624
View attachment 10626
Looks reasonably consistent at this range.
what is the qpf mean at gso now? 18z euro was around .7-.8”. This has potential if the temps stay down.
TW
NAM at 42 much colder. LP further south as well.