Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

[ForsythSnow]

My recollection it was horrible, had frozen precip much further south than what materialized

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Yep. That depiction was fraudulent last time and I advise not to look at it. Use pivotal for the better representation and if you know how to read the Skew T charts, then use them. If not, there's a section in the wiki I wrote awhile back that explains a lot.

 

[Kylo]

FV did OK last time. Here is one map I model snow map I found. Most models struggled with the southern edges of frozen extent.

 

[SD]

FV did OK last time. Here is one map I model snow map I found. Most models struggled with the southern edges of frozen extent.

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Ouch only missed by like 13.1 here

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[Kylo]

Ouch only missed by like 13.1 here

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Hah...for the folks on the southern edges like me...we tend to impugn any model that showed snow and stone anyone that says otherwise. I had 4" of slop but 20 miles north had double that. They all showed snow, Euro/UK/GFS...they all suck! I will never forgive the Euro for January 2017...never! This snow hobby can really suck sometimes.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What about this color transition. FV did OK last time.

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That may be the worst weather tool there is ???‍

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The dgex was the worst tool, it’s the Nathan peterman of weather models

 

[1300m]

18z GEFS continues the north trend. 18z NAM was also north and then split the surface low into two centers (but based on H5 it should have been way north and the 00z run will most likely be further north if it keeps that look).

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00z NAM way NORTH, as expected.

 

[snowlover91]

NAM has a nice batch of freezing rain moving through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looks a bit low on the qpf but showing the potential here.

 

[Fountainguy97]

The fv3 should be the only model any of us ever use again for snow. It stood tall all by itself for over a day with this solution. The December storm and now this one it has absolutely reigned as king. No questions at all. It has a slight cold bias but other tHan that it’s rather incredible.

Fv3 long range. Nam short range. Those are all you need.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Weird thing is to that the fv3 is doing worse than the gfs in other instances, for example the 500mb pattern

 

[Fountainguy97]

Weird thing is to that the fv3 is doing worse than the gfs in other instances, for example the 500mb pattern

Maybe it’s just a beast at sniffing out these CAD scenarios and it’ll stink at other setups.

But it’s gotten my respect for sure.

 

[1300m]

Maybe it’s just a beast at sniffing out these CAD scenarios and it’ll stink at other setups.

But it’s gotten my respect for sure.

It was also best with both major Hurricanes last year.

 

[Tarheel1]

00z NAM way NORTH, as expected.

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Results are still the same

 

[cd2play]

00z NAM way NORTH, as expected.

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One more jog like that then it will get tennessee storm's attention (severe weather) LOL

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

00z NAM way NORTH, as expected.

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It’s such a broad weak low that it doesn’t know where to go. As you can see in above graphic, could be anywhere from Louisiana to Memphis.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

0Z icon is back south and much colder.

 

[Kylo]

0Z icon is back south and much colder.

Yep.

 

[NCSNOW]

Snow showers have broken containment coming down through central , southern VA. Triangle and northern coastal plain might get a suprise tonight

 

[NCSNOW]

The fv3 should be the only model any of us ever use again for snow. It stood tall all by itself for over a day with this solution. The December storm and now this one it has absolutely reigned as king. No questions at all. It has a slight cold bias but other tHan that it’s rather incredible.

Fv3 long range. Nam short range. Those are all you need.

Help yourself!

 

[snowlover91]

ICON definitely came in colder. It also quickly shears the energy out as it heads east.
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