snowlover91
Member
Even the CMC is a brief burst of snow to ice though.As long as you aren't looking at the CMC
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Judging from the lack of posts in a busy thread on a busy forum, it’s easy to conclude the 18z GFS sucked. Looking further at the actual model, it does.
While I think there is a chance of the models underestimating the strength of the CAD a tad, I have to agree with 1300m and toss the Canadian eh in favor of some of the other models. If the high were trending south and stronger, I would think differently. But when does anything ever trend south and stronger?
While I think there is a chance of the models underestimating the strength of the CAD a tad, I have to agree with 1300m and toss the Canadian eh in favor of some of the other models. If the high were trending south and stronger, I would think differently. But when does anything ever trend south and stronger?
Last month... lol different scenario I know and not for everyone. But every single model output showed a trace at best and I ended up with 7". So I never fully throw in the towel until that warm snow is falling
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Yeah, I wouldn’t give up on it yet. But if I had to bet, I’d bet very little outside foothills/mountains/far western NC Piedmont and north from there. Just not seeing the Synoptics in place necessary to drive the big high south.
Last month I predicted 3-6" for Wake County when most were going much lower. I'm not a total moron but this one has got a lot of problems, the biggest being a cold air feed.
Wasn’t the track farther south as well? Nothing about this one is trending favorably right now.
Jon
Member
I think 99.9% of people would agree with you. I just like to wait 48 hours or so before I cancel, just in case...what’s the harm in waiting I guess. This storm has an ample amount of problems and it could have got it done, the surface low on this strung out mess just isn’t working for us. I’ve seen highs over the Great Lakes get it done for Raleigh, so there’s always exceptions. This one is just a tad too north.
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No disagreement. Just offering my forecast as of now. Nothing's ever set in stone, but I'm just not seeing any of the trends that I personally think are needed. It's close for sure for many from Raleigh to GSO, but in the end I doubt it'll be more than a nuisance/Advisory level event at worst.
Kylo
Member
18z Euro. Does Euro do well with 2m/wedges?
18z GEFS continues the north trend. 18z NAM was also north and then split the surface low into two centers (but based on H5 it should have been way north and the 00z run will most likely be further north if it keeps that look).
18z FV3 gives me about 8". How reliable is that model?
It should, it has 9km resolution, higher than the RGEM or the 12km NAM.
Kylo
Member
That’s good. It looks rough west of 85 then.
Cut it about half. That’s how the December storm was.
The color transition scheme from that provider is not helpful at all. The freezing line is important and should serve as a noticeable boundary in the color scheme. It doesn’t. Too bad!
Kylo
Member
Looks wintry. That the 18z fv-3? Also, how did the precip types from that site pan out with the last one?
Kylo
Member
Yep, that’s the 18z run. It did well, I thought. It was very bullish and it ended being a big winter storm. The pink may mean very cold rain though
My recollection it was horrible, had frozen precip much further south than what materialized
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NoSnowATL
Member
Correct, it had snow and ice to Atlanta but ended up with just cold 33 rain.
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